Wednesday, September 1, 2010

2nd 'Goldilocks Omen' triggered for 2010

The first 'Goldilocks Omen' in 2010 was China's, please refer to China is about to crash: GDP q2 at 10.3% and falling, in which some economists/commentators referred to a 'Goldilocks economy' re: China 24th July 2010

The 2nd 'Goldilocks Omen' just appeared on the September the 1st 2010 when Australia's GDP came out stronger for the quarter. A somewhat paradoxical reading on GDP numbers in which a high AUD allowed exports profits to increase, albeit volumes would have been lower (refer to this link on shipping rates pre 2008 crisis and now, BDI @ 11000+ in 2008, now 2000+ in 2010) and imports to decrease (yes paradoxical: as you would have assumed that imports would have increased and exports decrease, ahyhoo...). Of course government statistics (ABS) have created a fudged reading, when analyzed closely it appears that Australian's are drinking more coffee and eating takeaway then buying household goods/cars/TV's/clothes. Regardless, economists/commentators made the call of a Goldilocks economy; thus a second 'Goldilocks Omen' triggered in 2010

The 'Goldilocks Omen' is applicable as both economies are extremely over-leveraged in their housing markets, with Australia even surpassing China per capita of leverage.

The 'Goldilocks Omen' comes from the US report in 2006 when they (including FED Chief Ben Bernanke) thought that the US economy would 'not be to hot, not to cold, but just right'. As we all know now after 2008 the US economy is a -13 trillion dollar write-off.

Frighting.

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