Thursday, September 9, 2010

Market is overpricing risk (update 6) -Copper Price 'flash crash', Deutsche Bank capital raising (i.e writedown's ahead)

If you are trading in the markets there are two things (actually there are a 100's of 'things' to be concerned about) that should be of concern ( looking through the central banks smoke screens).

1.
Copper prices are sloping down, which as we all know are a cornerstone of economic recovery/boom. Copper dropped on a flash crash sell off (via the Shanghai Futures Exchange), losing 4% value in Asian trading - 09/10/2010. Coppers November 2010 contracts are now starting to show a selling momentum. We have a combination of Chinese investigation into futures trading with various Chinese brokerage firms and slowing demand for Copper.

2.
When one of the biggest banks in the world, Deutsche Bank, starts to begin a capital raising via share sales it is the beginning of asset write-downs (ref: to US banks in 2008 prior to the US Treasury i.e taxpayer bailouts). A very ominous sign (especially at a 9billion dollar capital raising), that shows regardless of what the ECB buying programs, the European banks are in a asset deprecation spiral.

and a quick 3. China tensions with Japan, as discussed in Japan is F****** with the market (updated); a trade war has already begun with China/Japan, that may extend into geopolitical tensions. China has been manically buying the YEN (at 27billion so far in 2010), hence driving up the value and hampering export markets in Japan, all whilst the Chinese play around with their Yuan as the biggest currency manipulators in history. A soon to be tension overload.

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