Tuesday, December 22, 2009

DEADPOOL #18 WRITER: Daniel Way PENCILS: Paco Medina



Maybe I was emotional that night when I read this comic (details will remain sketchy re: reasons of emotional responses), still the Deadpool comic (issue 18) written by Daniel Way and Art by Paco Medina kinda hit a nerve with me.

It was a uplifting and happy conclusion to a story arc that evolves around Deadpool trying to work out his next move (even for Deadpool and his conflicting split personalities a 'next' move is always an unkown), the guy is damaged mentally and of course physically (severally scared). It's a sympathy story for a guy that is messed up trying to do good (in his way). Although being a rogue character with split personalities and a motor mouth (sarcastic), underneath all that he just wants to be liked. So he tries to join the X-Men that are in exile (long story). A somewhat convoluted story of once known superheros trying desperately to retrieve their superhero status after media manipulation and pubic backlash (orchestrated by the evil guy Norman Osbourne who is now fabricated a legit oppression over the superhero community). Suffice to say the X-Men reject Deadpool as a new member. So he puts together a plan to convince them he is ok.

To cut a long story short the plan involves making himself look bad so they look good (so the media accepts the X-Men as hero's again), it works. He knows that he will never join the X-Men or ever be accepted in a societal sense. It's like his own acceptance of his character flaws and everything else wrong with him. So he just rolls with it and tries to do good (his way).

There is a moral in this arc somewhere, ambiguous, but with a character who has a mental disorder. It is a moral about expectations and acceptance that no matter what happens at the end of the day people (generally) want to see and do good; in all their different approaches. It's a respect to the rogue, the individual who does his (or her) thing and there is a method to their madness. Make sense? Who cares. I just love the idea that the complexities of life interact at various junction points, there is no straight line of expectations. In other words there is nothing better than ideas that evolve from chaos.

Just read the the series. Soon to buy in the MEC.research online (amazon) store

Don't You Forget About Me - Simple Minds (1985)



She has blue eyes and brown hair...

Investment update Decemeber 2009 (forward into 2010)

Long term plays are oil stocks and ETF's; some speculative plays and some of the most lucrative have been in biotechnology namley a small company called Biota (BTA) that produces the influenza antiviral Relenza in which Relenza is distributed through the drug making giant Glaxosmithkline (GSK.L). Since it's rival Tamiflu (produced by Roche) has been somewhat knocked out of the competition (due to it been ineffective against H1N1) Biota stocks will be held into early next year, depending on the (Relenza) profit made for the last quarter and how flu season pans out

Gold as a hedge against the US dollar, although for the time being with the USD gaining strength on a mixture of cautious markets and speculation on interest rates rises in the US, gold should settle into a support range. There are puts on my favorite currency (to bet against) the Australian dollar. This is short term option trading. The longer term is total USD weakness as the US ecomomy splutters into 2010. But a risk averse event and I am still seeing something unwinding in the bond markets, whether sovereign wealth fund imploding somewhere, or a goverment defaulting on debt or a war in the middle east. With central banks flooding the global economy with cash and shifting private debt onto public balance sheets. It's a fragile, very fragile global recovery; a major risk event in 2010 could economically unhinge everything. When Lehaman collapsed in 2008 and sent the whole market into meltdown risk assets like the AUD, stocks unwind positions dramatically. If something major occurred and it's more public orientated, then there will be quick shifts into safer commodities from risk assets. A build up of USD buying could be a precursor, something I am going to watch as the markets could reverse very quickly.

Oil price should remain steady with a potential price breakout as discussed in Oil on a 25mth cyclical bull run. Update 6 - potential of 'mega' breakout looming, in the meantime I believe the Lithium battery market is a new energy market that is creeping up (to attempt to offset higher oil prices). This is no real speculation pe se as lithium batteries are now being used in most portable hand held devises, like my Thompson MP3/Dictaphone and the PS3 controllers amongst other things (no need to replace the batteries built in lithium batteries that have a large lifespan). The industry that is going to utilize this is the car industry. China is a net importer of oil is of course looking at the electrical lithium powered car. So I am looking at well funded small lithium miners namely in Australia.

* MEC.research doesn't give investment advice, trade at your own risk

Monday, December 21, 2009

Caroline Trentini - Brazilian Model

Copenhagen flop, oil and the global economic recovery

There is a saying, 'deal with reality or reality will deal with you'. We all knew that Copenhagen would be a flop as goverments have become short term populist originated and are generally paranoid about economic downturns. A deal to cut carbon emissions was destine to be a failure and it has been. As populist icons like Barack Obama solidify populist paranoia on carbon trading - they have essentially KO'ed the carbon trading market and renewable energy sector. Regardless what side of the argument you lie on, whether you believe that the human race is contributing to global warming, or that it is a freak of nature that is just happening regardless of the tons of carbon that we admit into the atmosphere. The climate is changing and according to climate scientists rapidly, but you can see and hear about this daily. A chunk of Antarctica melting, harsher winters and extreme summers.

But as the world is heating up rapidly in an economic sense - inflation. The US has became a monetarist monster that has flooded it's economy with cash it's deficits have grown and so have prices. The obscene consumer price equation that removes food and energy from the equation underplays the problems that the US and the world faces in the next 5 years. If we throw the climate change issue away from the time being, which is fine, governments are quite happy to gamble with time regarding climate change. A shit stream of crisis/s are lining up (don't worry climate change is sitting in there too). The one crisis that is the fascinating is the looming oil crisis, or peak oil. Since most ecomomies are not interesting in stimulating research and developing into new energy systems or alternative energy systems (Copenhagen failure will guarantee that renewable companies will now struggle against high carbon admitters i.e carbon will be cheap again, with no binding treaty of cutting carbon admissions). Why would you set up a windfarm when it is still cheaper to run a coal powered station? Renewable companies will not really be profitable or sustainable against older energy producers and by retrospect carbon polluters. In saying this with the global economy attempting to power ahead using older industry fuel/oil orientated industries undoubtedly oil will rise.

You would be better off investing in oil.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

US dollar strength on growing risk aversion.

Will mild risk aversion turn into a storm? Greece got a downgrade of BBB + with it's debt to GDP at 112% of GDP.

The reasons behind current US dollar strength

Greece can't print money or devalue it's currency (it is part of the EU with a EURO currency) like Argentina did in
2001 and since 77% of foreigners own Greek Debt (bonds) the country is essentially fucked. The IMF and EU can intervene but they have to borrow from other large deficit (EU) countries to fund a bailout (which was written into the EU agreement that the Union wouldn't bail out individual countries). It simply cannot be funded unless the EU devalues the EURO (then you have inflation).

But a 'natural' huge devaluation of the EURO can only occur if the USD is bought on mass and the EURO collapses. But the USD is an unstable currency with the US looking very shaky in 2010

Or Greece can sell everything to foreign investors to balance their account deficits, literally sell off the country to outside interests. This is probably the only solution they have, but comes at a price; social turmoil, as overseas interests that buy public assets then restructure those assets to be profitable. Usually means job losses and cost cutting.

The rest of the EU is next.



Wednesday, December 16, 2009

The Sirens and the victim - the power of seduction



In Greek mythology Ulysses made his men put wax in their ears (while he was tied to the boats sale, yes he wanted to hear and see the beauty) so they wouldn't be allured by the beautiful sounds and sites of the sirens that eventually lured men to their peril (drowned). History and it's mythology is a time capsule of accounts of seduction. Tiger Woods indiscretions are no different to the bitter lessons never really learned in history. In fact Woods being captivated by various women is classic textbook seduction. He, in someways, was the perfect victim of a seductresses. How could he resist? She gave him risk and excitement from the mundane. Yet it has cost him so much; his marriage, sponsors, even his career could be on the decline.

True power is not money or fame per se for a female, it is her power to seduce. She could, if she wanted influence empires (re Cleopatra) and reduce male power brokers to blubbering fools.

That you have to respect.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Will gold correct soon?

Some contrarian investors and academic economists have made the call ('put' in trading terms) that gold is now inflated and in a bubble - thus should reverse it's trend. Their theorized aspect here is that gold was a rush buy when the US dollar declined rapidly in March 2009. The analysis is somewhat correct but not entirely sufficient as gold generally have been on a steady incline; so panic buying cannot be solely placed in the equation. Essentially if gold was to correct significantly it should have already, this can be seen on the 7th July 2008 when the US dollar was at an all time low of 0.71 cents and gold was at 967 an ounce. The correction occurred when the USD gained strength on the 14 July 2008 from there gold dropped to 699 and the USD rose to 88 cents on the 10 March 2009. Gold overall closed at 723 in 2008 (October) and from December 2008 gold rose to the current market price (1,124 December 2009) and the USD weakened to 76 cents (December 2009).

This has been just over a year of gains for gold.

Within that 1yr period the corrections against gold have been mild, the reason being is that the USD is an unstable and weak currency, the US ecomomy is weak and usable and US deficits will eventually bleed into a debt crisis at some point. Gold tested highs this year (2009) on the back of risk aversion that never really abated. From Dubai, Greece and the rest of Europe there is a festering problem of sovereign funds defaulting. So from the last 8mths risk has been on and off which in turn has caused volatility within tight indices trading ranges, nevertheless gold has been a safe haven.

As discussed in Gold price breakout on a 'mini' crisis 2009 (update4) - 'mini' crisis is now here gold is comfortable in its trading range, a significant pullback would be to the 990 price, with the market unsure that a economic recovery has actually started and a strange form of stagflation is falling onto the US economy. Gold is still a buy.

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Art: Photo (4)

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Christmas and Chanukah gift ideas 2009 - Tequila




Well Chanukah is first this year starting as of 11 Dec - 19 Dec 2009 then Christmas on the 25th December 2009 regardless of what your faith is (even if you are of atheistic leanings like myself), it's a good time to give gifts and receive them plus hanging out with family.

Anyway this year as a Christmas present I am going to give a bottle of Tequila (to a certain person), why? I dunno, maybe the whole peyote/point of singularity thing posted on this blog kinda has influenced the situation. Yes I know Tequila is made from a plant called the Agave Tequilana sort of like a succulent plant and it aint Peyote; nor will it make you flip into a another reality as peyote would, nevertheless it will cause some feelings. Or at least leave it in the bottle and put the bottle in someplace where everyone can see it, like the bottle above. What with the six shooters and 'revolucian' written on it. Very cool.

Oh yeah the bottle above is $1000.00USD

Australia's exports maintain slump, employment grows

Australian trade deficit added $3,808m to overall blow out figure of 16.18 billion. The nations income credits (exports) have collapsed at $44,323 in the September 2009 quarter.

Australian unemployment rate has decreased to 5.7% (goverment figures). At this point the Australian goverment deficits are evident of massive economic stimulus, the trade deficit is evident from slow export markets and a surging Australian dollar.

The Australian ecomomy appears to be solely run on goverment spending.

2010 could indicate structural issues with deficits and bond/sovereign debt issues.

ABS ref

New Blog name

Old name: morbius glass

New name: MEC (markets/evolve/culture). Research

Online dating. Is there any money in it?

We are not talking about the applicants more so the proprietor. I remember a few years back a person I knew thought about setting up a online dating site. I remember he discussed the basic idea with me and it was about the time when myspace was really taking off as a so called online social network. His online dating idea was going to be a similar to myspace with a touch of ebay. What the basic idea evolves around members would create their own pages not dissimilar to a mypsace page, this would be a free service. Then a member whether male of female would then allocate 5 favorites (male or female) to their dating list. What would then occur is that a bidding contest would take place, the top bid would be capped at $100.00. Although the monetary aspect was still to be worked out, but for the idea of creating a biding aspect on a dating site the $100.00 was the figure used. The 5 members would then bid into that range, the winner would then obviously be the sole contender and win the date. The online dating company would then organize a date, expenses paid; this would be a dinner and picked up by a chauffeur/limo depending on costs - the profit concept was not to completly match (with the all expenses paid dinner date) the bid amount (say $100.00); the money to be made would be the difference between the amount bided and the costs paid out for a the date. Suffice to say the idea remand just that, an idea and didn't progress any further from that point. But the question remains. Is their money to be made from the current online dating market?

The whole concept of online dating is that the members or participates keep utilizing the services, obviously it is unprofitable if one was to begin a relationship straight away (or relevantly quickly) from an online service's. The odds of course are extremely unlikely that a relationship could actually occur from online dating. Which I will explain.

The reasons for such low odds of a relationships from online dating occurring quickly (or at all), is the sociological, biological and psychological abnormality (online dating) as discussed in"Why haven't we met any aliens", we can't simply erode millions and thousands of years of social, cultural and biological traits with an electronic medium. Replacing natural human interaction with a pixel image and then creating expectations that the person you are online 'courting' is actually going to be suitable (even for a date). It's an impossible paradox, one that has occurred in the last 5 years of internet dating/social networks. Ideally in the male/female courting interaction process, you see your potential mate (or fling) in the flesh; meaning you can gauge from instincts and visually tune into the person attractiveness (if you are attracted to them). This as mentioned cannot be done with an electronic medium.

So from a business perspective and as trend people have become to reliant (for the time being) on the internet for social interaction, it has distorted and completly thrown the normal courting/dating process. Which means you would can't rely on the electronic medium in hope that it would then click into the expectation of meeting your partner. The odds are somewhat unlikely in fact almost impossible, until that is realized you may have spent an amount of money through a online relationship broker to find your ideal date. I imagine the turnover of clients/customers/members on online dating (depending on the current trends) would be quite large. Eventually, and I have discussed this with a guy I know who works heavily in setting up users networks, people will migrate away from the internet as a social interaction tool and it will be used more for commerce and reference/information.

Human nature is just to overwhelming in it's desire to work out friend or foe. The internet completly blurs out that inherit ability when it comes to online human interaction. So in conclusion. Network/social/dating sites are somewhat profitable for the time being on the internet, but can it last?

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Greece downgrade - may induce nasty market correction. The Korea Won amongst other 'risk' currencies will be slaughtered

Greece and Dubai are probably the start of sovereign funds debt/bond problems going into 2010 (domino effect). So a mild correction in markets that was forming may end up being a nasty one of course depending on central bank/goverment intervention into the new year. In the meantime all supports have held from the Dow to gold in light of a broad based sell.

Regarding the comment on the Bank of Korea saying that gold is 'illusionary' (in respect to other central banks buying gold to diversify from USD). I remember when the Korean Won collapsed in July 1st 2008 (shown on graph with the US dollar gaining strength). The Won and other 'risk'; currencies namely export based currencies will suffer if a another crisis hits and the one that is brewing being the bond markets of 2010. Gold is not just a inflation hedge but a 'crisis' hedge.

The question is can the USD be a support as a risk averse currency if markets all begin to dip negative again?

USD/WON

Monday, December 7, 2009

Very mild US Dollar strength and even milder correction occurring - USD/Oil graph

In the last quarter of 2008 starting in September. The markets corrected (significantly), which was lead on by the Lehman collapse (September 2009) and essentially the start of the global financial crisis . Risk aversion was on prior to the Lehman Collapse with the USD regaining strength and climbed to a high of 89.62 on the 2nd March 2009. Of course the US dollar strength was a mixture of the huge amount of risk aversion and selling that took place until markets stabilized in 2009. The oil price collapsed from it's high of 147 a barrel (7th July 2008) which was a prelude to global markets crashing and oil being sent down to 35 a barrel on the 22nd December 2008

There is now a very mild dollar strength coming through on the back of unemployment figures that were released on the 4th December 2009, I'll let market skeptics scrutinize these figures that were released (showing unemployment decreased rapidly in the US over the last 2mths), in the meantime the markets reacted on the precursor that the Fed Fund rate will tighten with the positive unemployment news. This of course won't happen, whether it was political/market motivated figures that were released in December 2009 (US unemployment deceasing), overall US weakness will continue with a Federal Reserve 0% interest rate policy and money printing maintained. We may see a mild correction on end year profit taking (equities), some USD strength albeit mild and oil move lower against a stronger USD. This will be very short term and the growing divergence between the USD and commodities, particularly oil will continue.


Thursday, December 3, 2009

Dow maintains trading range towards 11000

But danger ahead.

Dubai World default and the default issues of the Dubai sovereign fund may be the beginning of the problems with debt/bond markets leading into 2010. Essentially the funds that are connected to goverment i.e sovereign funds will start to feel pressure since goverments and central banks have become pseudo leaders to decaying companies, all bond markets may show quality issues as a recovery (from 2007/2008 credit crunch) for many companies will be negligible.

Still anything connected (business) to goverment may have debt refinance issues, that is essentially a warning of the massive liabilities that have been absorbed by the public sector from the private sector.

In the meantime the Dow is still showing overall gains despite glitches such as Dubai ( 27th November 2009 154.48 sell off) and the recent sell off of 86.46 on the 3rd December 2009. There is still however a tight trading range with a main support at 9,741

Of course a concerning issue (if you own shares) is the American Express stock price which was hammered (3rd December 2009 sell) from 41.89 30th November 2009 now at 38.81. A good bellwether to the underlying issue with banks write-downs as US unemployment grows in 2010

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Tiger Woods and his women



All photos from here

So this guy (Tiger Woods) has argument with his wife over an alleged affair and crashes the car. Something wrong with that situation as it stands (I mean he crashes the car and endangers himself and his wife! Sounds like an unstable dude). Still the Judean/Christian belief that women are the temptresses of men, hammers down on the woman in the mix of all this, kinda similar to the ex-NY governor Eliot Spiltzer affair if anyne cares. He (Spiltzer) can still give interviews while the women in question disappears (not literally) somewhat out of the media, probably a litigation hell storm hanging over her head that would wipe her of the face of the earth; plus a little bit of money to keep loose lips from sinking ships. Also a society doesn't really favour hookers with credibility (I am not saying that is a good thing... as I mentioned it's the old testament/bible hangover crapola)

Anyway back to Tiger Woods. Golf is horrendous game, yes I have played and no it doesn't turn me on. In fact I can do 1hr laying into a bag (boxing) and then dead-lifts and still not feel that achy, with golf I seem to be a able to dislocate my elbow and put my back out and not only that, I could actually hit a ball backwards when I was aiming for it to go forward.

So the point is if you are a guy like Tiger Woods (money) you are going to have other interested parties show... well interest. Usually these parties are women partying around you. You either roll with that all or have a breakdown over the attention (as he has). Although it is his poor hapless wife who probably just wanted to know what the truth was and this fucker couldn't cope with it; what a lame ass.

But the flip-side for his wife is of course the risk of marrying a power sportsman like Woods. She maybe or maybe not aware that the downside to a money spinner like Woods is that he is not going to be short female admirers. So nativity would be inexcusable in that sense.

In conclusion, who fucking cares. Still Rachel Uchitel (Woods apparent lap dancer) is getting some press out of this (she is an attractive woman); can she cope and flip this around to her advantage? Probably not against a guy like Woods, who can send out a human probe (all expenses paid) to scope out a golf course before he plays in a tournament, is serious power. So yeah he would crush her (legally) if she tried to cash in.

Australia trying to keep it's bond market afloat

Hence the recent interest rate rises of .25% as at 1 December 2009, with the current cash rate now 3.75%. On news of the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted rates for the second time in 2mths Bonds rallied as retail banks will start to increase their cash rates (Westpac bank adding .45% to their mortgage rates). This gave a lift to bond markets especially the 10 year bond at 94.78%. The reasons? Debt default fears and Australia falls into that category, as discussed in Australia - Export/import prices still falling . Australia has a widening trade account deficit and it's terms of trade is falling. As it will be an issue for it's sovereign fund as government will struggle to pay for debt and maintain tax revenues (with baby boomers retiring and a growing popoulation) - so overall it's fiscal deficit will blow out in the next 5 years.

Also unhelpful are the FX market distortions, namely becuase of a weak US dollar. Export countries may have no choice but to devalue their currencies to build up earnings from falling export credits. But of course this puts pressure on bond values as the market sees inflation creeping thus causing yields to rise. But regardless an oversupplied and value decreasing bond market constitutes to a global debt crisis brewing into 2010 as Dubai was the warning shot.