Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Dow is looking rangy and weak, closing of September 2010 trades

Nine days of rangy trading starting from the high reached on the 20th September 2010 @10774.13 and the close on the 29th September 2010 @ 10835.13. Low volume and most likely high frequency trading that are grinding on a tight bid/offer between 10608 and 10834. With end of the month book closing and profit taking, buying into this now rangy and weak looking market would be insane. September seasonly is meant to be a volatile and general sell side month instead we had a buy on a dribble of liquidity supported by HFT trading, October 2010 and November 2010 should correct this with over bought markets now looking like to sell into the close of 2010.

A 'flash crash' within the last 3mths of 2010 cannot be ruled out, low volume marked up buys on tight bid/offers and overbidding via HFT trading; all the hallmarks of pre flash crash or a significant market correction. The 'light' to set this off? Euro Zone problems (rioting, protests, strikes) and/or a debt contagion from Ireland (Anglo Irish Bank bailout failure) will set off a major market correction. Other possible scenario is total US dollar weakness and trade war/tensions with China.

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