Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Will gold correct soon?

Some contrarian investors and academic economists have made the call ('put' in trading terms) that gold is now inflated and in a bubble - thus should reverse it's trend. Their theorized aspect here is that gold was a rush buy when the US dollar declined rapidly in March 2009. The analysis is somewhat correct but not entirely sufficient as gold generally have been on a steady incline; so panic buying cannot be solely placed in the equation. Essentially if gold was to correct significantly it should have already, this can be seen in the on the 7th July 2008 when the US dollar was at an all time low of 0.71 cents and gold was at 967 an ounce. The correction occurred when the USD gained strength on the 14 July 2008 from there gold dropped to 699 and the USD rose to 88 cents on the 10 March 2009. Gold overall closed at 723 in 2008 (October) and from December 2008 gold rose to the current market price (1,124 December 2009) and the USD weakened to 76 cents (December 2009).

This has been just over a year of gains for gold.

Within that 1yr period the corrections against gold have been mild, the reason being is that the USD is an unstable and weak currency, the US ecomomy is weak and usable and US deficits will eventually bleed into a debt crisis at some point. Gold tested highs this year (2009) on the back of risk aversion that never really abated. From Dubai, Greece and the rest of Europe there is a festering problem of sovereign funds defaulting. So from the last 8mths risk has been on and off which in turn has caused volatility within tight indices trading ranges, nevertheless gold has been a safe haven.

As discussed in Gold price breakout on a 'mini' crisis 2009 (update4) - 'mini' crisis is now here gold is comfortable in its trading range, a significant pullback would be to the 990 price, with the market unsure that a economic recovery has actually started and a strange form of stagflation is falling onto the US economy. Gold is still a buy.

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Art: Photo (4)

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Christmas and Chanukah gift ideas 2009 - Tequila




Well Chanukah is first this year starting as of 11 Dec - 19 Dec 2009 then Christmas on the 25th December 2009 regardless of what your faith is (even if you are of atheistic leanings like myself), it's a good time to give gifts and receive them plus hanging out with family.

Anyway this year as a Christmas present I am going to give a bottle of Tequila (to a certain person), why? I dunno, maybe the whole peyote/point of singularity thing posted on this blog kinda has influenced the situation. Yes I know Tequila is made from a plant called the Agave Tequilana sort of like a succulent plant and it aint Peyote; nor will it make you flip into a another reality as peyote would, nevertheless it will cause some feelings. Or at least leave it in the bottle and put the bottle in someplace where everyone can see it, like the bottle above. What with the six shooters and 'revolucian' written on it. Very cool.

Oh yeah the bottle above is $1000.00USD

Australia's exports maintain slump, employment grows

Australian trade deficit added $3,808m to overall blow out figure of 16.18 billion. The nations income credits (exports) have collapsed at $44,323 in the September 2009 quarter.

Australian unemployment rate has decreased to 5.7% (goverment figures). At this point the Australian goverment deficits are evident of massive economic stimulus, the trade deficit is evident from slow export markets and a surging Australian dollar.

The Australian ecomomy appears to be solely run on goverment spending.

2010 could indicate structural issues with deficits and bond/sovereign debt issues.

ABS ref

New Blog name

Old name: morbius glass

New name: MEC (markets/evolve/culture). Research

Online dating. Is there any money in it?

We are not talking about the applicants more so the proprietor. I remember a few years back a person I knew thought about setting up a online dating site. I remember he discussed the basic idea with me and it was about the time when myspace was really taking off as a so called online social network. His online dating idea was going to be a similar to myspace with a touch of ebay. What the basic idea evolves around members would create their own pages not dissimilar to a mypsace page, this would be a free service. Then a member whether male of female would then allocate 5 favorites (male or female) to their dating list. What would then occur is that a bidding contest would take place, the top bid would be capped at $100.00. Although the monetary aspect was still to be worked out, but for the idea of creating a biding aspect on a dating site the $100.00 was the figure used. The 5 members would then bid into that range, the winner would then obviously be the sole contender and win the date. The online dating company would then organize a date, expenses paid; this would be a dinner and picked up by a chauffeur/limo depending on costs - the profit concept was not to completly match (with the all expenses paid dinner date) the bid amount (say $100.00); the money to be made would be the difference between the amount bided and the costs paid out for a the date. Suffice to say the idea remand just that, an idea and didn't progress any further from that point. But the question remains. Is their money to be made from the current online dating market?

The whole concept of online dating is that the members or participates keep utilizing the services, obviously it is unprofitable if one was to begin a relationship straight away (or relevantly quickly) from an online service's. The odds of course are extremely unlikely that a relationship could actually occur from online dating. Which I will explain.

The reasons for such low odds of a relationships from online dating occurring quickly (or at all), is the sociological, biological and psychological abnormality (online dating) as discussed in"Why haven't we met any aliens", we can't simply erode millions and thousands of years of social, cultural and biological traits with an electronic medium. Replacing natural human interaction with a pixel image and then creating expectations that the person you are online 'courting' is actually going to be suitable (even for a date). It's an impossible paradox, one that has occurred in the last 5 years of internet dating/social networks. Ideally in the male/female courting interaction process, you see your potential mate (or fling) in the flesh; meaning you can gauge from instincts and visually tune into the person attractiveness (if you are attracted to them). This as mentioned cannot be done with an electronic medium.

So from a business perspective and as trend people have become to reliant (for the time being) on the internet for social interaction, it has distorted and completly thrown the normal courting/dating process. Which means you would can't rely on the electronic medium in hope that it would then click into the expectation of meeting your partner. The odds are somewhat unlikely in fact almost impossible, until that is realized you may have spent an amount of money through a online relationship broker to find your ideal date. I imagine the turnover of clients/customers/members on online dating (depending on the current trends) would be quite large. Eventually, and I have discussed this with a guy I know who works heavily in setting up users networks, people will migrate away from the internet as a social interaction tool and it will be used more for commerce and reference/information.

Human nature is just to overwhelming in it's desire to work out friend or foe. The internet completly blurs out that inherit ability when it comes to online human interaction. So in conclusion. Network/social/dating sites are somewhat profitable for the time being on the internet, but can it last?

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Greece downgrade - may induce nasty market correction. The Korea Won amongst other 'risk' currencies will be slaughtered

Greece and Dubai are probably the start of sovereign funds debt/bond problems going into 2010 (domino effect). So a mild correction in markets that was forming may end up being a nasty one of course depending on central bank/goverment intervention into the new year. In the meantime all supports have held from the Dow to gold in light of a broad based sell.

Regarding the comment on the Bank of Korea saying that gold is 'illusionary' (in respect to other central banks buying gold to diversify from USD). I remember when the Korean Won collapsed in July 1st 2008 (shown on graph with the US dollar gaining strength). The Won and other 'risk'; currencies namely export based currencies will suffer if a another crisis hits and the one that is brewing being the bond markets of 2010. Gold is not just a inflation hedge but a 'crisis' hedge.

The question is can the USD be a support as a risk averse currency if markets all begin to dip negative again?

USD/WON