Below another pic.
from Wikipedi
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Daria Werbowy.
I get a lot of clicks on this name Daria Werbowy, primly from this post Some bar opening in NYC... and Daria Werbowy
Below another pic.
from Wikipedi
Below another pic.
from Wikipedi
Japan's decaying ecomomy
Japans ecomomy has been crunched into submission. Despite goverment stimulus, causing slight rises in exports and industrial output, Japans economy is a good bellwether (problems) for export reliant Asia. China will barely drag other Asia economies along.
from: DailyFX
"Japan's June Unemployment Rate jumped to its highest level in six years by 0.2 percentage points to 5.4%. Expectations had called for a slightly more optimistic jobless picture - an increase in the rate of unemployed to only 5.3%. Along with this came a shrinking Job-to-Applicant ratio, which fell to its lowest level since data for the metric began being recorded. Not surprisingly, the rate at which the labor force that sought jobs this month continued to decline."
Recent stock rallies are short term rallies, anyone holding long positions (say into late 2009 and 2010) are insane.
from: DailyFX
"Japan's June Unemployment Rate jumped to its highest level in six years by 0.2 percentage points to 5.4%. Expectations had called for a slightly more optimistic jobless picture - an increase in the rate of unemployed to only 5.3%. Along with this came a shrinking Job-to-Applicant ratio, which fell to its lowest level since data for the metric began being recorded. Not surprisingly, the rate at which the labor force that sought jobs this month continued to decline."
Recent stock rallies are short term rallies, anyone holding long positions (say into late 2009 and 2010) are insane.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
New bubbles forming in all markets, Chinese commodity buying could have peaked. Watch global bond markets, may weaken on deficits and corp defaults.
The stock market is now overbought and as mentioned it is now trading in a range as discussed in Dow rallies over 9000 closes at 9069 - July 2009. This could go on till the end of the year or correct in at some point within the northern hemisphere winter. Regardless goverment fiscal policy and central bank monetary policy both now are encouraging speculators back into the housing and stock market which have ensured that new bubbles are forming, and quite rapidly.
China in that sense is the biggest concern, it's stimulus is purely for domestic demand and to maintain a degree of domestic output in production. The US consumer is out for the count, so China cannot rely on exports for income. China is leading the world with a wave of massive fiscal deficits that it may or may not be able to maintain short and long term, but it is prepared to take that risk. In the meantime it now has massive amounts of leverage pumped back into it's ecomomy, bubbles have occurred in stocks, housing, construction and the stock piling or raw materials. Which China can use to play the commodity markets with, more so copper and even to a degree iron ore. To force prices down. It cares about it's own situation not the rest of the world. China can depress it's currency, forces other countries to lower their currencies and arrest corporate staff (re Rio Tinto) all to maintain some kind of order in it's social/economic demographics. China can also shut down it's private sector and run solely on goverment stimulus as a way of re-balancing their ecomomy via goverment fiscal policy, perilous and disturbing but a reality.
This of course means that the commodity buying cycle from China could have peaked out. So the commodity markets may be in for a correction. Oil will be worth watching as output slows and demand increases it will be interesting to see how much oil will decline in price. The Chinese have stockpiled oil over the years, but to run that massive ecomomy oil is still going to be bought. The oil market may maintain as the only play as far as commodities go if a future sell is on the cards. The IMF selling gold because it needs money may offset the gold price, but gold is a crisis buy as goverments throw money into their own economies at some point the bond markets, both corporate (on the back of a commercial property meltdown) and goverment bonds could weaken and collapse in price, I would not rule out a large sell off as countries try and recapitalize, especially export depended countries i.e China.
China in that sense is the biggest concern, it's stimulus is purely for domestic demand and to maintain a degree of domestic output in production. The US consumer is out for the count, so China cannot rely on exports for income. China is leading the world with a wave of massive fiscal deficits that it may or may not be able to maintain short and long term, but it is prepared to take that risk. In the meantime it now has massive amounts of leverage pumped back into it's ecomomy, bubbles have occurred in stocks, housing, construction and the stock piling or raw materials. Which China can use to play the commodity markets with, more so copper and even to a degree iron ore. To force prices down. It cares about it's own situation not the rest of the world. China can depress it's currency, forces other countries to lower their currencies and arrest corporate staff (re Rio Tinto) all to maintain some kind of order in it's social/economic demographics. China can also shut down it's private sector and run solely on goverment stimulus as a way of re-balancing their ecomomy via goverment fiscal policy, perilous and disturbing but a reality.
This of course means that the commodity buying cycle from China could have peaked out. So the commodity markets may be in for a correction. Oil will be worth watching as output slows and demand increases it will be interesting to see how much oil will decline in price. The Chinese have stockpiled oil over the years, but to run that massive ecomomy oil is still going to be bought. The oil market may maintain as the only play as far as commodities go if a future sell is on the cards. The IMF selling gold because it needs money may offset the gold price, but gold is a crisis buy as goverments throw money into their own economies at some point the bond markets, both corporate (on the back of a commercial property meltdown) and goverment bonds could weaken and collapse in price, I would not rule out a large sell off as countries try and recapitalize, especially export depended countries i.e China.
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Comic book nerd asks Megan Fox to have sex with him
...and film it!
How frustrating a room full of young nerdy comic book fanboys at the Comic Con 2009 and Megan Fox. Actually nerds aren't that silly, they know not in their lifetime would they be able to have sex with Megan Fox and they also know the studios are using them for feed back on the shit producers pour out (with less than 1% that somewhat works) ; which is the current comic book adaption to movie cycle. Although they (nerds) have a great sense of humour about it all, especially when a starlet is dumped in a room full of 'fans' at a comic con for a promotional thing. Which in all retrospect is insincerity overdrive (just to sell crapola like Transformers 2) . There is an old saying, "if it aint there, don't go looking for it". Still one guy had a punt (with true satirical absurdity, even if he didn't realize it):
This year, Johansson was the headliner, promoting Iron Man 2, but it was an appearance by Megan Fox which had the geeks talking after one fan approached the star during a Q&A to promote her new supernatural western Jonah Hex.
"My question is for Megan," the man said. "I have a Sony HVR (video camera). It's not a true HD, but it gives a pretty good image. Anyway, my question is: I just graduated film school and I'm trying to help my career. I was wondering if you'd be interested in some kind of, like, celebrity sex tape?"
With that, a couple of security guards grabbed the fella and took him to an undisclosed location
Then this humorless stiff of a co star Jeff Brolin who is probably nothing less than a walking dildo (to himself that is), saying this after the poor kid is dragged out by security:
"Dude, I can't wait to see what you look like in 30 minutes,"
At least the kid had balls albeit extremely low probability in his proposition to fuck Megan Fox. Still it's a strange universe
Monday, July 27, 2009
China's beatdown of Australia - it's all about business
The markets go through a period of relative calm, there is growth and money for all. Productivity is up, employment and economic benefit ensures nations happily trade with each other at good prices. Everyone is happy. Then reality hits, a downturn occurs such as the one we had globally in 2008. Huge slump in exports and US imports, the world gets another bitter taste in the cycle of an economic downturn. Investments in markets and in business goes south. Even though some economists believe in a linear economic environments are achievable, the reality of economics, finance and global production is that at some point it shrinks, lead from an economic collapse (in our recent case the US housing market), disaster, global event; in fact a magnitude of external and internal issues causes markets to flux then fall.
This is our reality if we all trade, buy and make money in a (at times) brutish capitalist system. Other wise you live in happy land, were all the fairy people live, dancing around in a fantasy world.
So, business in a downturn gets desperate you have lay offs, profits are squeezed and creditors get frisky and bankruptcy's and business failures are ensured. The true nature of business is to survive. Negotiation, planning and restructuring of business models occur, some naturally can adapt to a downturn others are removed from the face of the map. All and all it gets dirty. If you worked for a business you'll know this, you'll see (if the allow you into boardrooms) the frantic attempts at negotiation on everything just to stay alive.
Now, intercontinental (country to country) business deals are not much different, in fact they can be harsher. The current dispute over iron ore pricing with China and Australia is a perfect example. A detained Australian citizen (worked for Rio Tinto) in China and China putting the squeeze on Australia (which it can). The US Federal Reserve under that ridicules person Ben Bernanke has ensured that the base currency of the world, the currency everyone trades with, is debased, devalued and essentially discarded. What the US administration is failing to comprehend is devaluing a global base currency like the USD (apart from making China frustrated at it's USD and Treasury holdings) is causing the last of the high yield currency's (which happen to be commodity backed currencies) such as the Canadian Dollar, Australia Dollar and the Brazilian Real, to move higher in value. We have had and are still having a global slow down, governments have created huge deficits to stimulate their economies, so essentially the global economy is being propped up by government stimulus. China which has been crunched by the global recession is desperately trying to maintain it's huge economy and population, at all costs. China simply cannot go from an export producing economy to an consumption driven one overnight. They know this, so China is replacing collapsed US demand for Chinese goods with economic stimulus.
Boosting export currencies by devaluing the world's base currency causes export countries to suffer more in a downturn. In other words all countries at some point will need to devalue their currencies to keep in line with the US dollar. Since the US monetary policy is for indefinite devaluing of the US currency; a hampering of global export markets will maintain.
China needs iron ore and it aint going to pay top dollar either, as other countries have been crunched by the global recession the commodity producing countries have suffered as demand has collapsed the markets have been hard to sell exports in, again a declining USD has forced high yield currency such as the AUD and Real upward hence putting pressure of spot prises for commodity exports - all this when global economies have tanked. So the foolish play here is companies battling for market share, even though there is a handful of bigger mining companies, is to try and renegotiate a higher cost when your buyer wants a lower one (because of a global recession).
The Chinese have the upper hand and they will play ruff, these are desperate times and the magnitude of a country like China unable to keep it's workforce busy is frighting. So the Chinese can force a lower price anyway they want. Australia is the smaller side and it will be captive to the larger side if it is stubborn. This is occurring now. Brazil will still want to sell it's iron ore, China can starve off both economies before it's own economy goes critical. It (China) has stock piles, it can sit out for awhile. China can push Australia further into recession, cause some pain, as it could with Brazil. Brazil now is solely trading with China with it's exports. But Brazil may crack first, if China puts the squeeze on, so Brazil may come to an arrangement prior to Australia in lowering it's iron ore price. As it has more kinship with China (part of the BRIC countries...I know terrible term), if Australia wants to play the 'America centric' arrogance, such as 'we are still running the world shit'. Australia will get hammered back into recession. Australia will suffer from export markets collapsing and a high currency (re: the USD being thrown in the bin). American consumption will not come online for years, if ever to it's peak as there is a queue of crisis's lining up in the years to come.
Conclusion, don't mess with China. It's your buyer, better than nothing. There will be absolutely no V shape recovery on the cards, it will be a flat lined L shape for years. All countries like China will be supporting their economies indefinitely with stimulus, thus creating massive fiscal deficits. In the short term economy producing countries should try and ride this out, but deficit issues will come to the boil at some point. In the mean time, they give you money for your products and no one else is buying, you take it.
Brazilian exports graph: note the sharp increase to China (even in a global downturn, good indicator on stockpiling and a possible peak in commodity buying; inline for more aggressive negotiation)
Article detailing Chinese influence in Latin America July 8th 2009 From McClatchy Newspapers
"China is beefing up its embassies throughout Latin America, opening Confucian centers to expand Chinese culture, sending high-level trade delegations throughout the region and opening the door for ordinary Chinese to visit Machu Picchu, Rio and other tourism hot spots.
"While Rio enjoyed strong iron ore exports to China in May-June, demand from Australian ports had softened, according to global shipping market information provider Baltic Exchange.
This is our reality if we all trade, buy and make money in a (at times) brutish capitalist system. Other wise you live in happy land, were all the fairy people live, dancing around in a fantasy world.
So, business in a downturn gets desperate you have lay offs, profits are squeezed and creditors get frisky and bankruptcy's and business failures are ensured. The true nature of business is to survive. Negotiation, planning and restructuring of business models occur, some naturally can adapt to a downturn others are removed from the face of the map. All and all it gets dirty. If you worked for a business you'll know this, you'll see (if the allow you into boardrooms) the frantic attempts at negotiation on everything just to stay alive.
Now, intercontinental (country to country) business deals are not much different, in fact they can be harsher. The current dispute over iron ore pricing with China and Australia is a perfect example. A detained Australian citizen (worked for Rio Tinto) in China and China putting the squeeze on Australia (which it can). The US Federal Reserve under that ridicules person Ben Bernanke has ensured that the base currency of the world, the currency everyone trades with, is debased, devalued and essentially discarded. What the US administration is failing to comprehend is devaluing a global base currency like the USD (apart from making China frustrated at it's USD and Treasury holdings) is causing the last of the high yield currency's (which happen to be commodity backed currencies) such as the Canadian Dollar, Australia Dollar and the Brazilian Real, to move higher in value. We have had and are still having a global slow down, governments have created huge deficits to stimulate their economies, so essentially the global economy is being propped up by government stimulus. China which has been crunched by the global recession is desperately trying to maintain it's huge economy and population, at all costs. China simply cannot go from an export producing economy to an consumption driven one overnight. They know this, so China is replacing collapsed US demand for Chinese goods with economic stimulus.
Boosting export currencies by devaluing the world's base currency causes export countries to suffer more in a downturn. In other words all countries at some point will need to devalue their currencies to keep in line with the US dollar. Since the US monetary policy is for indefinite devaluing of the US currency; a hampering of global export markets will maintain.
China needs iron ore and it aint going to pay top dollar either, as other countries have been crunched by the global recession the commodity producing countries have suffered as demand has collapsed the markets have been hard to sell exports in, again a declining USD has forced high yield currency such as the AUD and Real upward hence putting pressure of spot prises for commodity exports - all this when global economies have tanked. So the foolish play here is companies battling for market share, even though there is a handful of bigger mining companies, is to try and renegotiate a higher cost when your buyer wants a lower one (because of a global recession).
The Chinese have the upper hand and they will play ruff, these are desperate times and the magnitude of a country like China unable to keep it's workforce busy is frighting. So the Chinese can force a lower price anyway they want. Australia is the smaller side and it will be captive to the larger side if it is stubborn. This is occurring now. Brazil will still want to sell it's iron ore, China can starve off both economies before it's own economy goes critical. It (China) has stock piles, it can sit out for awhile. China can push Australia further into recession, cause some pain, as it could with Brazil. Brazil now is solely trading with China with it's exports. But Brazil may crack first, if China puts the squeeze on, so Brazil may come to an arrangement prior to Australia in lowering it's iron ore price. As it has more kinship with China (part of the BRIC countries...I know terrible term), if Australia wants to play the 'America centric' arrogance, such as 'we are still running the world shit'. Australia will get hammered back into recession. Australia will suffer from export markets collapsing and a high currency (re: the USD being thrown in the bin). American consumption will not come online for years, if ever to it's peak as there is a queue of crisis's lining up in the years to come.
Conclusion, don't mess with China. It's your buyer, better than nothing. There will be absolutely no V shape recovery on the cards, it will be a flat lined L shape for years. All countries like China will be supporting their economies indefinitely with stimulus, thus creating massive fiscal deficits. In the short term economy producing countries should try and ride this out, but deficit issues will come to the boil at some point. In the mean time, they give you money for your products and no one else is buying, you take it.
Brazilian exports graph: note the sharp increase to China (even in a global downturn, good indicator on stockpiling and a possible peak in commodity buying; inline for more aggressive negotiation)
Article detailing Chinese influence in Latin America July 8th 2009 From McClatchy Newspapers
"China is beefing up its embassies throughout Latin America, opening Confucian centers to expand Chinese culture, sending high-level trade delegations throughout the region and opening the door for ordinary Chinese to visit Machu Picchu, Rio and other tourism hot spots.
Aiping Yuan came to Rio de Janeiro from Beijing in 1997 on a lark, fell in love with the city and decided to stay. She studied Portuguese, and when Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva made his first visit to China in 2004, she opened a small school in Rio to teach Mandarin.
She began with six students and today has 300, including senior executives at Petrobras, the country's biggest oil company, and Vale do Rio Doce, the biggest mineral producer. Both have growing business with China.
"Chinese is the language of the future for Brazil," Yuan said with a big smile.
China has forged a strategic alliance with Brazil that's allowed the two countries to partner with India and Russia in the so-called BRIC grouping, which is demanding a greater voice in global political and economic affairs. Indeed, China is making inroads with developing countries worldwide.
Beijing's main interest in Latin America has been guaranteeing access to the region's raw materials — principally oil, iron ore, soybeans and copper — to fuel its continued rapid growth. For many countries, there's a downside in the China trade, through which cheap imports have displaced local textiles."
Article detailing the demand falling off Australian iron ore July 20th 209, The Australian:"While Rio enjoyed strong iron ore exports to China in May-June, demand from Australian ports had softened, according to global shipping market information provider Baltic Exchange.
"We've certainly seen a recent softening of demand from the Australian ports from the last few days or a week or two," Baltic Exchange's chief executive, Jeremy Penn, told ABC TV yesterday.
"But we've also seen a lot of fixtures from Vale, in Brazil, to China . . . so there's been continuing demand there for freight of iron ore."
Sunday, July 26, 2009
The Inflation/deflation argument
I can't take seriously a reporter or economist or whatever writing an article declaring that inflation doesn't really exist in our present economic climate.
A person that I know has been retrenched from his position with a huge multinational machinery company. He and his partner have both lost jobs in a inflation environment. Both have complained that food, fuel, mortgage, rent, insurance, council and car registration have all increased. Including general prices for consumer goods, that haven't dropped that much either (even when they had jobs) such as Gym membership, restaurants, clothing or other goods (especially imported) have all increased. About the only deflation aspect going on is tech goods, mainly computers, which has more to do with Moore's Law than price deflation.
A person that I know has been retrenched from his position with a huge multinational machinery company. He and his partner have both lost jobs in a inflation environment. Both have complained that food, fuel, mortgage, rent, insurance, council and car registration have all increased. Including general prices for consumer goods, that haven't dropped that much either (even when they had jobs) such as Gym membership, restaurants, clothing or other goods (especially imported) have all increased. About the only deflation aspect going on is tech goods, mainly computers, which has more to do with Moore's Law than price deflation.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Dow rallies over 9000 closes at 9069 - July 2009
As shown in the post Dow trading range. There is now a tight range that the Dow currently trading in; a breakout took place (closed at 9069 23 July 2009) on the upside trading over the Dow trend line 3 of 8945. This occurred on the close of trading 23rd July 2009. As discussed in previous posts we may see continued rallies of the Dow towards the end of the year, although rallies may peak in early September 2009 at 9315.
As discussed in Market correction could be on it's way - June 2009, although the June 2009 market correction didn't amount to anything. It should be noted that the overlay on the Dow Graph is American express (refer to link on graph). On speculation that American Express at one point will be trouble and could eventually (if another credit crisis hits) be knocked out of the Dow.
This just came in when the US markets closed for trading 23 July 2009, From Bloomberg:
"American Express retreated 5 percent to $27.99. The credit- card issuer reported second-quarter sales of $6.09 billion, or 1.4 percent less than analysts projected. Net income from continuing operations decreased 48 percent to $342 million. "
Current Dow futures are down (poor earnings from Microsoft, Amazon and American Express) although a bigger sell off may be months away depending on worst news.
At this point we have large divergences of Volume against the OBV and MFI. American express looks extremely overbought so we may see the Dow fall back into the 8900 range again.
Please refer to graph (click for larger image)
As discussed in Market correction could be on it's way - June 2009, although the June 2009 market correction didn't amount to anything. It should be noted that the overlay on the Dow Graph is American express (refer to link on graph). On speculation that American Express at one point will be trouble and could eventually (if another credit crisis hits) be knocked out of the Dow.
This just came in when the US markets closed for trading 23 July 2009, From Bloomberg:
"American Express retreated 5 percent to $27.99. The credit- card issuer reported second-quarter sales of $6.09 billion, or 1.4 percent less than analysts projected. Net income from continuing operations decreased 48 percent to $342 million. "
Current Dow futures are down (poor earnings from Microsoft, Amazon and American Express) although a bigger sell off may be months away depending on worst news.
At this point we have large divergences of Volume against the OBV and MFI. American express looks extremely overbought so we may see the Dow fall back into the 8900 range again.
Please refer to graph (click for larger image)
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Dow trading range
This is currently the Dow trading range. I can't load the S&P 500 up at this point.
Note thinning volumes.
Hermes - Spring collection 2010
It's pricey, but it is quality. They also make a good cologne.
For the full collection go to men style, click here
It will make your eyes bleed...US debt to GDP
Above is a graph put together for businessinsider.com (also commentary about the US debt to GDP graph)
If you here about commentators saying that de-leveraging still has yet to occur for the US economy; they mean that private and now public debt levels have still climbed on top of the debt that was accumulated prior to the global recession. If the recession was unable to clear out excess (due to goverments and central banks throwing money at the problem), then a BIGGER crash could be on the horizon.
Now check this graph out (click on link), somewhat controversial due to an analyst at Credit Suisse disputing the graph. But it stands as a double whammy of financial, government/public debt. Since there is a copyright on the graph I have only posted a link:
http://static.10gen.com/businessinsider.com/
Horrendous.
So also note when commentators talk about private growth being crimped and not expanding, they refer to goverment debt expanding and the increasing of taxes and general prices (inflation). Which in turn limits private expansion, hiring labor and wage increases for employees. So we are more likely to suffer far worst unemployment issues (strikes and civil problems) with higher goverment debt than if goverment debt was less and stimulus projects were scaled down or didn't exist.
Monday, July 20, 2009
morbius glass quote of the month – July 2009
Futurama (Series 2): A Bicyclops Built for Two:
"Well, thanks to the Internet, I'm now bored with sex"
Fry
"Well, thanks to the Internet, I'm now bored with sex"
Fry
The US Dollar and Gold showing a reflected 'crossover' patten. (update 1)
As discussed in Oil on a 25mth cyclical bull run? Update 3 - oil resumes incline and Stock indices split form the real economy., I don't think in the near term there is going to be a stock market correction. There is now a trading range for indices and traders are buying and selling with in that range (shown in a later post). So there is a degree of immunity to 'bad' economic news and an upward euphoric optimism is now in place.
Below is one of my favorite graphs (US Dollar index and Gold price), only because it shows the build up (gold) to the massive equity sell off that occurred post Lehman's collapse (September 2008). Gold peaking in March 2008 as the USD tanked.
The USD crossover (declining) from gold occurred on the 9th April 2007 and 6th August 2007 (indicated in red horizontal lines). The final crossover from gold as the dollar maintains it's decline took place on the 1st December 2008. Then a somewhat recovery on the USD on the back of pre risk aversion on the 22nd December 2008. The USD then rallies to the 2nd March 2009 again pre risk aversion and countering stock lows on the S&P (November 2008) and Dow (March 2009).
Still below the gold trend line as the US dollar fails to recover, notice on the graph how the USD has completely gone south with gold moving further up, of course this shows a similar patten post Lehman's collapse and the huge equity sell off's that ensured. Yet stocks are still rallying even with the USD declining and gold stable and rising
All and all gold is still seen as a safe haven, with a non existent yield return on the USD it's a no brainer where the USD is heading.
(A side note re: USD destruction. As the worlds base currency disappears into a valueless abyss. This is now putting a lot of pressure on the Asian export markets and other countries commodity backed currencies. If the USD doesn't recover soon (which it won't) we may see devaluation in Asia and Australia to keep their currencies at a low level against the USD (for the export markets to recover). If Asia get's involved in devalution war with other local cuurencies, again gold will be the winner.)
As mentioned on this blog, we could see rallies in global stock markets throughout the summer (Northern Hemisphere) and possibly maintained towards the end of 2009. The only sell (which will be absolutely massive) will be on a major 'shock'. In the meantime gold will continue upward and may even go further if the 'shock' entails a major geopolitical/economic event.
USD index/Gold (click on grap for larger image)
Below is one of my favorite graphs (US Dollar index and Gold price), only because it shows the build up (gold) to the massive equity sell off that occurred post Lehman's collapse (September 2008). Gold peaking in March 2008 as the USD tanked.
The USD crossover (declining) from gold occurred on the 9th April 2007 and 6th August 2007 (indicated in red horizontal lines). The final crossover from gold as the dollar maintains it's decline took place on the 1st December 2008. Then a somewhat recovery on the USD on the back of pre risk aversion on the 22nd December 2008. The USD then rallies to the 2nd March 2009 again pre risk aversion and countering stock lows on the S&P (November 2008) and Dow (March 2009).
Still below the gold trend line as the US dollar fails to recover, notice on the graph how the USD has completely gone south with gold moving further up, of course this shows a similar patten post Lehman's collapse and the huge equity sell off's that ensured. Yet stocks are still rallying even with the USD declining and gold stable and rising
All and all gold is still seen as a safe haven, with a non existent yield return on the USD it's a no brainer where the USD is heading.
(A side note re: USD destruction. As the worlds base currency disappears into a valueless abyss. This is now putting a lot of pressure on the Asian export markets and other countries commodity backed currencies. If the USD doesn't recover soon (which it won't) we may see devaluation in Asia and Australia to keep their currencies at a low level against the USD (for the export markets to recover). If Asia get's involved in devalution war with other local cuurencies, again gold will be the winner.)
As mentioned on this blog, we could see rallies in global stock markets throughout the summer (Northern Hemisphere) and possibly maintained towards the end of 2009. The only sell (which will be absolutely massive) will be on a major 'shock'. In the meantime gold will continue upward and may even go further if the 'shock' entails a major geopolitical/economic event.
USD index/Gold (click on grap for larger image)
Sunday, July 19, 2009
mec.research Store - 100 Suns (Hardcover)
A fascinating book documenting photography of above ground Nuclear Tests from the 1950's through to the mid 1960's. A great coffee table book and a conversation pierce for guests. Also a good addition to the Nuclear weapon discussion is the framed piece of Trinite on the wall (doesn't come with the book though).
Global governments are ensuing that there is no light at the end of the tunnel, just another cliff.
Governments do what they want, not for you and not for me. But to stay in power no matter how illusionary as it may appear. To cling to the last remnants of an arrogant dream of 'everything is just rosy'. All sorts of calls are being made now as far as the economic recovery. Certain economists (government and private) that live in confused statistical ivory towers are putting in their bets for a US rebound, wayward as they may be. As the biggest economic blunder in history as yet to unfold, that being the massive amount of money that has been thrown into the global economy and the huge government deficits that were created. We have yet to see the repercussions.
I understand about the free markets, I respect and acknowledge the idealism of self interest in the context of evolving ideas and innovation. I also believe that the markets purge incompetence in business. This didn't happen. Government supported asset prices and allowed incompetency to return to profit. The sad aspect of all this is that a struggling shop, that is trying to hold onto business has been sacrificed by government intervention. Whilst investment banks of Wall Street posts profits (from government welfare assistance), a smaller business suffers under the weight of pending inflationary conditions and current recessionary conditions.
The idiots in government see the economic situation as a War. But as they (government) have made huge blunders in warfare in the last 10 years (refer to Iraq and Afghanistan). They of course are going to stuff this up too. So much excess was built up over the years that it needs to be flushed out of the system. As mentioned, instead governments have tried to maintain an illusionary economic status quo. To the benefit of top tier people connected to government and central banks. A collapse in economic activities doesn't necessarily mean the end of the world. The end of the world is when a meteorite destroys the planet. The motives in saving the global economy are misguided and will evidently prove more dangerous than allowing a recession to run it's natural course.
What we have now is governments using our money to maintain economic growth, installing small pegs under the built up excesses, whilst allowing the excess to continue to build up. Sun Tzu's The Art of War a classic text of strategy and conflict discusses this by seeing conflict/or action (prolonged) as a disadvantage to a society; more so a threat as it drains precious resources within that society to maintain attack orientated actions. Since politicians and central bankers liken the global economic crisis to war, they fundamentally make an age old error of prolonging and sustaining a crisis longer than it should be.
From the Art of War:
Now there is talk of a second stimulus. Some commentary has indicated that the US GDP (years end) will show that the US will be out of recession. The primitive form of utilising GDP relies on governments statistics, that of course will not be truthful and objective as it could be; just look at China and Argentina both countries that notorious play up GDP growth as much as they can.
The 2nd stimulus plan from the US government will be in response to the growing unemployment in the US.
If you work for a business you'll know that a deficit in accounts is a terrible thing. In fact a deficit eventually leads to bankruptcy as you need to constantly fill a hole that is growing; as other accounts are paid, the wider the deficit becomes. The US government seems happy to go down a path of bankruptcy and inflation, their obvious predicament. Since the Federal Reserve has shown that it is indefinitely going to wage a 'war' on deflation, then this quote also comes into play (from The Art of War):
But there is another play here, which is the US dollar. The US Federal Reserve can't solely detach it's self from the world economy. As much as it is arrogantly doing so. As long as the worlds base currency suffers from zero interest rates and money printing. This will continue to hamper the recovery of Asia, namely China. With commodity producing countries currency going upward (against a declining USD), China will demand cheaper commodities for it's recovery and sustainability. Here lies the current problem with China and Australia over iron ore. China is desperate in stockpiling commodities, particularly iron ore and oil - and they want it cheaper than the high export price.
In Australia's situation it will need to either cut export prices for the Chinese, or be punished by the Chinese as they drop off from the Australian commodity markets (relying on stockpiles) hence pushing Australia further into recession.
Even if China maintains a huge stockpiles of iron ore, the next major issue will be oil. With the declining USD driving oil price back up and supplies shrinking. China being a net importer of oil, it all entails to potential conflict situations.
This can all be blamed on a economic policy machine in the US, which is completely out of touch with reality. The reality being the scarcity of certain commodities, US dollar weakness and inflation. Also a reality that the markets, when they need to, become brutal and desperate which eventually leads to war.
I understand about the free markets, I respect and acknowledge the idealism of self interest in the context of evolving ideas and innovation. I also believe that the markets purge incompetence in business. This didn't happen. Government supported asset prices and allowed incompetency to return to profit. The sad aspect of all this is that a struggling shop, that is trying to hold onto business has been sacrificed by government intervention. Whilst investment banks of Wall Street posts profits (from government welfare assistance), a smaller business suffers under the weight of pending inflationary conditions and current recessionary conditions.
The idiots in government see the economic situation as a War. But as they (government) have made huge blunders in warfare in the last 10 years (refer to Iraq and Afghanistan). They of course are going to stuff this up too. So much excess was built up over the years that it needs to be flushed out of the system. As mentioned, instead governments have tried to maintain an illusionary economic status quo. To the benefit of top tier people connected to government and central banks. A collapse in economic activities doesn't necessarily mean the end of the world. The end of the world is when a meteorite destroys the planet. The motives in saving the global economy are misguided and will evidently prove more dangerous than allowing a recession to run it's natural course.
What we have now is governments using our money to maintain economic growth, installing small pegs under the built up excesses, whilst allowing the excess to continue to build up. Sun Tzu's The Art of War a classic text of strategy and conflict discusses this by seeing conflict/or action (prolonged) as a disadvantage to a society; more so a threat as it drains precious resources within that society to maintain attack orientated actions. Since politicians and central bankers liken the global economic crisis to war, they fundamentally make an age old error of prolonging and sustaining a crisis longer than it should be.
From the Art of War:
"Those who are not thoroughly aware of the disadvantages in the use of arms cannot be thoroughly aware of the advantages in the use of arms.
Those who use the military skillfully do not raise troops twice and do not provide food three times"
Now there is talk of a second stimulus. Some commentary has indicated that the US GDP (years end) will show that the US will be out of recession. The primitive form of utilising GDP relies on governments statistics, that of course will not be truthful and objective as it could be; just look at China and Argentina both countries that notorious play up GDP growth as much as they can.
The 2nd stimulus plan from the US government will be in response to the growing unemployment in the US.
If you work for a business you'll know that a deficit in accounts is a terrible thing. In fact a deficit eventually leads to bankruptcy as you need to constantly fill a hole that is growing; as other accounts are paid, the wider the deficit becomes. The US government seems happy to go down a path of bankruptcy and inflation, their obvious predicament. Since the Federal Reserve has shown that it is indefinitely going to wage a 'war' on deflation, then this quote also comes into play (from The Art of War):
"In the markets near the army, the prices of goods shoot up. Therefore long military campaigns are a plague to a nation"
But there is another play here, which is the US dollar. The US Federal Reserve can't solely detach it's self from the world economy. As much as it is arrogantly doing so. As long as the worlds base currency suffers from zero interest rates and money printing. This will continue to hamper the recovery of Asia, namely China. With commodity producing countries currency going upward (against a declining USD), China will demand cheaper commodities for it's recovery and sustainability. Here lies the current problem with China and Australia over iron ore. China is desperate in stockpiling commodities, particularly iron ore and oil - and they want it cheaper than the high export price.
In Australia's situation it will need to either cut export prices for the Chinese, or be punished by the Chinese as they drop off from the Australian commodity markets (relying on stockpiles) hence pushing Australia further into recession.
Even if China maintains a huge stockpiles of iron ore, the next major issue will be oil. With the declining USD driving oil price back up and supplies shrinking. China being a net importer of oil, it all entails to potential conflict situations.
This can all be blamed on a economic policy machine in the US, which is completely out of touch with reality. The reality being the scarcity of certain commodities, US dollar weakness and inflation. Also a reality that the markets, when they need to, become brutal and desperate which eventually leads to war.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
China/Rio Tinto situation
Somewhat getting worst. It's all fun and games until someone loses an eye. It's hardball and China is playing very hard. Business dealings are getting dirtier especially when China's GDP comes in with an inflated 7.9% GDP. You could probably could chop off 3% or more if stimulus wasn't in the equation. So stimulus is solely running the Chinese economy as exports are gone.
So...
The Rio Tinto situation must be looked at as a desperation that the Chinese have maintaing internal demand and retaining employment, according to Reuters:
Reuters
Wednesday, July 15, 2009; 9:27 PM
So...
The Rio Tinto situation must be looked at as a desperation that the Chinese have maintaing internal demand and retaining employment, according to Reuters:
Reuters
Wednesday, July 15, 2009; 9:27 PM
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Rio Tinto Ltd/Plc has evacuated staff in China involved in research of the iron ore and steel industry in response to the detention of some of its iron ore traders by state authorities, the Australian Financial Review reported on Thursday.
The unsourced report from Shanghai also said other foreign groups were moving employees out of China until conditions there become more certain.
Oil on a 25mth cyclical bull run? Update 3 - oil resumes incline
There may not be a meaningful correction to the stock markets in 2009. Over bought signals indicated that a correction was due, but we didn't get the 10 % or 20 % correction some analysts predicted. As discussed in Q3 stock market rallies 2009 , we may see rallies right into July and August 2009, the market is trading solely on euphoria in once over sold markets, we also have risk appetite back with a vengeance with Goldman Sachs 4 billion profit for the last quarter (q2). So now it's a traders market, with a narrow trading range (indicies) traded on over bought and over sold signal's. As discussed in Stock indices split form the real economy, the outside economy won't have much effect on the stock market at this point in time. The global economy is in a shocking state as far as business/private sector survival goes. But with unemployment and inflation both rising a bigger shock may be the only reason for markets to sell.
As forecasted in Oil on a 25mth cyclical bull run? Update 2 - Oil reaches $70.00 a barrel oil has begun it's 2 year cyclical bull run; reaching a high of $73 June 1st 2009. Trailing stock gains and losses oil is trading more on a reality trip than our currently over speculated stock market. June 1st 2009 the oil price closed at the psychology resistance of $70, with what appeared to be a stock market correction (although it wasn't) on July 13th oil slipped to $58. The OBV showed a divergence on a monthly graph once the psychological resistance level of $70.00 was reached on June 1st 2009; so a sell was inevitable from that point.
Oil is now trading within it's trading range of 58-70 (monthly graph), current close at $61 (15th July 2009). Although with thin volumes indicated that the price could remain static within it's trading range. Buying could test the 70 resistance, like I mentioned earlier in this post the markets are currently in for a major correction at some point, this could occur via a major shock. Either lead on from the commodity markets (oil shock/war/geopolitical/China etc) or a major economic shock such as collapse of derivative market/CDS market/credit market freezes/ commercial property market collapses/UK currency issues/deficit issues/H1N1 - swine flu spread. If stocks late this year, or early 2010 correct (significantly) due to the mentioned possibilities. Oil may diverge away from stock losses.
Click on graph for larger image
As forecasted in Oil on a 25mth cyclical bull run? Update 2 - Oil reaches $70.00 a barrel oil has begun it's 2 year cyclical bull run; reaching a high of $73 June 1st 2009. Trailing stock gains and losses oil is trading more on a reality trip than our currently over speculated stock market. June 1st 2009 the oil price closed at the psychology resistance of $70, with what appeared to be a stock market correction (although it wasn't) on July 13th oil slipped to $58. The OBV showed a divergence on a monthly graph once the psychological resistance level of $70.00 was reached on June 1st 2009; so a sell was inevitable from that point.
Oil is now trading within it's trading range of 58-70 (monthly graph), current close at $61 (15th July 2009). Although with thin volumes indicated that the price could remain static within it's trading range. Buying could test the 70 resistance, like I mentioned earlier in this post the markets are currently in for a major correction at some point, this could occur via a major shock. Either lead on from the commodity markets (oil shock/war/geopolitical/China etc) or a major economic shock such as collapse of derivative market/CDS market/credit market freezes/ commercial property market collapses/UK currency issues/deficit issues/H1N1 - swine flu spread. If stocks late this year, or early 2010 correct (significantly) due to the mentioned possibilities. Oil may diverge away from stock losses.
Click on graph for larger image
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Melbourne (Australia) Graffiti: Kings Way: The Beginnings of Australian Graffiti, Melbourne 1983-93 (book)
Kings Way blogFinally a book has come out documenting the history of Melbourne (Australia
) graffiti circa early 1980's to early 1990's.
Very proud that my brother gets a mention in this publication, below are some pics (recent... somewhat) of his work:
Israel warships pass through the Suez canal
form BBC 14th July 2009:
There will be an updated oil analysis (soon) in morbius glass finance and stocks
"Correspondents say that although Israel vessels regularly use the canal, the recent moves have - unusually - been publicised by the Israelis. Shlomo Brom, of the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies, said:Satellite picture of the Suez Canal
"I believe (the news) was likely leaked on purpose in order to signal to Iran that Israel has the capability of reaching them." Israel has said repeatedly that it will not rule out the possibility of taking military action against Iran over the nuclear issue."
There will be an updated oil analysis (soon) in morbius glass finance and stocks
Monday, July 13, 2009
Sober up
Goldman Sachs
Risk appetite turned on for the liars of greed via corruptible goverment intervention. US Tax payer free money has returned this investment bank to profit. So says Meridith Whitney. I would add, there has gotta be a credit crunch 2 brewing at some point and I hope this fucking bank disappears off the planet (they let Lehman go and gave Goldman Sachs taxpayer money to take risks again...an insult to the freemarkets). Yeah trade short term with them, detach emotion; then when it all goes south again short sell.
China
Scary. Why? Because when the economic de-coupling argument was getting thrown around pre global recession (US sinks, rest of the world connects to Asia's boom - this didn't happen of course) everyone was looking for a economic savior. This time it's the same, but with the Rio Tinto fiasco and China's desperation to continue stockpiling commodities could point to a few things. 1. They will use their stockpiles as barging chips (force prices down by dumping surplus raw materials onto the markets) 2. They (Chinese goverment) are worried about internal turmoil, their stimulus should be flushed out by year end. 6 Months into 2009 (on the bank of their massive stimulus) their industrial output boomed, banks made risky loans, people bought cars. All on the fact direct foreign investment tanked, export markets have almost completed collapsed, overcapacity and a straining middle class clinging onto employment. China is getting desperate. As a side note: It has been said that if Israel was foolish enough to bomb Iran and the US forced Iran to blockade the Straits of Hormuz. China would send 10 warships to the Straits of Hornuz the same day to clear the shipping lines and get the oil pumped back out.
Same now with other commodities, best not play hardball
US Bonds tank
Long term spreads up, inflation here and hyperinflation on it's way. Tax payers gonna get in between the eyeball. A trillion plus US deficit, it's a fucking horror story. As long as the US consumers reign in spending and everything else is expensive, Asia's market will continue to tank. Simple economic equation.
Collapse of the entire system.
Very possible, in the sense look at history. Any government that has propped up, contributed and eventually becomes a corrupt debt ridden monster, collapses in a heap. Since we had a global boom and global bust and a global bailout all done via an influence of state control (economically) which echoes history of failed socialism/communism support of asset prices. History only reveals that dictatorship orientated countries with either socialism or another form of fascism have eventual collapsed and spectacularly. We all could be heading this way if the government continues it's support of the whole global ecomomy. Our economic model was never supposed to be supported by goverment, it was a boom/bust cycle that got rid of the undergrowth and weak/corruptible/badly managed companies and businesses - with the competent remaining.
Risk appetite turned on for the liars of greed via corruptible goverment intervention. US Tax payer free money has returned this investment bank to profit. So says Meridith Whitney. I would add, there has gotta be a credit crunch 2 brewing at some point and I hope this fucking bank disappears off the planet (they let Lehman go and gave Goldman Sachs taxpayer money to take risks again...an insult to the freemarkets). Yeah trade short term with them, detach emotion; then when it all goes south again short sell.
China
Scary. Why? Because when the economic de-coupling argument was getting thrown around pre global recession (US sinks, rest of the world connects to Asia's boom - this didn't happen of course) everyone was looking for a economic savior. This time it's the same, but with the Rio Tinto fiasco and China's desperation to continue stockpiling commodities could point to a few things. 1. They will use their stockpiles as barging chips (force prices down by dumping surplus raw materials onto the markets) 2. They (Chinese goverment) are worried about internal turmoil, their stimulus should be flushed out by year end. 6 Months into 2009 (on the bank of their massive stimulus) their industrial output boomed, banks made risky loans, people bought cars. All on the fact direct foreign investment tanked, export markets have almost completed collapsed, overcapacity and a straining middle class clinging onto employment. China is getting desperate. As a side note: It has been said that if Israel was foolish enough to bomb Iran and the US forced Iran to blockade the Straits of Hormuz. China would send 10 warships to the Straits of Hornuz the same day to clear the shipping lines and get the oil pumped back out.
Same now with other commodities, best not play hardball
US Bonds tank
Long term spreads up, inflation here and hyperinflation on it's way. Tax payers gonna get in between the eyeball. A trillion plus US deficit, it's a fucking horror story. As long as the US consumers reign in spending and everything else is expensive, Asia's market will continue to tank. Simple economic equation.
Collapse of the entire system.
Very possible, in the sense look at history. Any government that has propped up, contributed and eventually becomes a corrupt debt ridden monster, collapses in a heap. Since we had a global boom and global bust and a global bailout all done via an influence of state control (economically) which echoes history of failed socialism/communism support of asset prices. History only reveals that dictatorship orientated countries with either socialism or another form of fascism have eventual collapsed and spectacularly. We all could be heading this way if the government continues it's support of the whole global ecomomy. Our economic model was never supposed to be supported by goverment, it was a boom/bust cycle that got rid of the undergrowth and weak/corruptible/badly managed companies and businesses - with the competent remaining.
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
China sticks to it's beatdown...
After the Rio Tinto deal went south and the Australian goverment had no balls to broker a deal (economically in their best interest). China has got the ugly stick out and they are swinging...
from Bloomberg
"July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Rio Tinto Group, deadlocked in talks on iron ore prices with Chinese steel mills, said four of its employees have been detained for three days in Shanghai.
from Bloomberg
"July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Rio Tinto Group, deadlocked in talks on iron ore prices with Chinese steel mills, said four of its employees have been detained for three days in Shanghai.
Rio hasn’t had contact with the workers from the Shanghai office since they were detained July 5, and doesn’t know why they are being held, spokesman Nick Cobban said yesterday. Stern Hu, an Australian national and head of Rio’s iron ore operations in China, was arrested by the Public Security Bureau on the weekend, Australian Senator Barnaby Joyce said today. A media official at Shanghai’s Public Security Bureau wouldn’t comment, saying they are checking with other departments.
Steel mills in China, the world’s largest buyer of iron ore, are seeking a bigger price cut than the 33 percent agreed on in May between London-based Rio and Japanese, Korean and Taiwan producers. Rio last month abandoned a $19.5 billion investment by Aluminum Corp. of China, four months after agreeing to what would have been China’s biggest overseas investment."
Monday, July 6, 2009
Coming risk aversion Q3 - Will the USD be a haven?
That is the question and it could be said (I'll say it) that the US dollar, that usually in risk averse markets, is bought. May not happen this time around. The markets may turn risk averse into 3rd quarter 2009. Mostly on the back of companies earnings, European banking mess, global unemployment and government deficits that will make your eyes bleed. But US stocks have been stubbornly bullish, although as discussed in Getting ready for more selling. Dow and VIX show market 'sell' anticptaion, technically there is room for capitulation in stock selling if broken supports and fear cause major sell off's. No matter how much liquidity is pumped into markets via central banks, or confidence is artificiality created by central banks and governments. Fear always trumps anything else, no one wants to lose money.
Looking at a similar patten with the last two quarters of 2008 when everything went south, 2009 could emulate aspects of markets selling. With the USD in 2008 gaining strength on risk aversion. 2009 could prove the opposite (as far as last quarter US dollar strength in 2008). What might occur this time is the USD could weaken further with safe havens and defensive stocks become more attractive. Oil crashed in 2008 from it's high of 147. This time around the USD could crash with oil being bought along side with gold, and agricultural based commodities. Stocks could flatten out from last quarter highs or sell off altogether. If that was the case and it breaks all supports and heads down towards November 2008 (S&P500) and March 2009 (Dow) lows. Then a rebound trigger could occur at the end of 2009. If there is money on the sides and risk aversion takes out the rest of 2009, any money on the sides will stay in safe havens and commodities towards the end of 2009.
Refer below to US dollar index graph, note the two highs on the USD when risk aversion kicked in for stocks (S&p500 - November 2008 low): 20th November 2008 at 88.34, (Dow - March Low 2009): March 3rd 2009 at 89.50
Currently at 80.00, if dollar weakness persists due to the Federal Reserves Treasury purchases, stock selling could also pass onto US Dollar selling as the US dollar will be considered a risk asset (inflation). Thus market funds may move into oil and gold
I am bearish on silver, but bullish on gold into q3. Stocks may have life in them but defensive plays are already showing up in the markets and futures could show more puts than calls. So without getting too swept up in the recent last quarter rallies I have a buy on food, energy stocks. More so (if you are in these markets) futures as a hedge (buy on stock lows) for oil, food and utility stocks.
Inflation is here despite the ridicules assertion that it isn't, as mentioned on this blog inflation is now stretching right across on a broad scale from food, oil, council rates, insurance to child care costs and telecommunications. So an inflation based portfolio would be wise with some speculative buys. The speculative buys have been pharmaceuticals, 1. Obama's health care overall. 2. Pandemics (namely H1N1/swine flu)
*morbius glass doesn't give investment advice, trade at your own risk
Looking at a similar patten with the last two quarters of 2008 when everything went south, 2009 could emulate aspects of markets selling. With the USD in 2008 gaining strength on risk aversion. 2009 could prove the opposite (as far as last quarter US dollar strength in 2008). What might occur this time is the USD could weaken further with safe havens and defensive stocks become more attractive. Oil crashed in 2008 from it's high of 147. This time around the USD could crash with oil being bought along side with gold, and agricultural based commodities. Stocks could flatten out from last quarter highs or sell off altogether. If that was the case and it breaks all supports and heads down towards November 2008 (S&P500) and March 2009 (Dow) lows. Then a rebound trigger could occur at the end of 2009. If there is money on the sides and risk aversion takes out the rest of 2009, any money on the sides will stay in safe havens and commodities towards the end of 2009.
Refer below to US dollar index graph, note the two highs on the USD when risk aversion kicked in for stocks (S&p500 - November 2008 low): 20th November 2008 at 88.34, (Dow - March Low 2009): March 3rd 2009 at 89.50
Currently at 80.00, if dollar weakness persists due to the Federal Reserves Treasury purchases, stock selling could also pass onto US Dollar selling as the US dollar will be considered a risk asset (inflation). Thus market funds may move into oil and gold
I am bearish on silver, but bullish on gold into q3. Stocks may have life in them but defensive plays are already showing up in the markets and futures could show more puts than calls. So without getting too swept up in the recent last quarter rallies I have a buy on food, energy stocks. More so (if you are in these markets) futures as a hedge (buy on stock lows) for oil, food and utility stocks.
Inflation is here despite the ridicules assertion that it isn't, as mentioned on this blog inflation is now stretching right across on a broad scale from food, oil, council rates, insurance to child care costs and telecommunications. So an inflation based portfolio would be wise with some speculative buys. The speculative buys have been pharmaceuticals, 1. Obama's health care overall. 2. Pandemics (namely H1N1/swine flu)
*morbius glass doesn't give investment advice, trade at your own risk
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Could Asia go into a depression? (update 4)
Australia's trade deficit worsens, namely on a huge export crunch of -5% (month April 2009 to March 2009)
Australia's cyclical reliance on commodity booms and Asia's massive export slump - is a double whammy for the Australian economy. With overcapacity in Asia, one should anticipate a markdown of pricing on exports. Still factoring a currency depreciation across Asia as they try and bring down import credit build ups and over capacity.
Australia's cyclical reliance on commodity booms and Asia's massive export slump - is a double whammy for the Australian economy. With overcapacity in Asia, one should anticipate a markdown of pricing on exports. Still factoring a currency depreciation across Asia as they try and bring down import credit build ups and over capacity.
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