Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Whats wrong with this picture. Global indices are correcting except for the US


DOW


S&P 500

Spain IBEX 30


JAPAN NIKKEI AVERAGE INDEX(225)


DJ STOXX 50


GERMANY DAX(TR)


FRANCE CAC

and of course the Shanghai Composite refer: Prepare yourself (and your portfolio) for a coming debt crisis and a Chinese hard-landing (crash) 2010 - (update 6)

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Prepare yourself (and your portfolio) for a coming debt crisis and a Chinese hard-landing (crash) 2010 - (update 8)

A huge sell off is on, Greece gets a junk bond downgrade (finally)

RE: BHP

BHP 42 with a x leverage 0.5 - $2 strike / 2 = 9.5(x) Ok you short a small trade at 23 shares at 42 = $966 (x9.5). Hits your strike price of $40 = $9,177

BOOM! Nice

Monday, April 26, 2010

Saturday night Captain Morgan 'rum' and quick analysis of popular culture characters - the Taskmaster (comics)



Well no dates and no women last Saturday night, a policy? No, just the way it was. Being somewhat bored, I went to the local bottle shop at picked up a bottle of Captain Morgan 'spiced' rum went back to my unit and decided to sought through some comics. Picked up the Avengers: The Initiative (Marvel) comic and started reading them again, there is this character in that series by the name of the Taskmaster. He is kinda cool, well at least how Christos N. Gage (writer) has written him (a mercenary that wears a skull mask). Slightly hard story to explain, but the gist of it is a guy (Taskmaster) who is trying to see the best possible scenario in th worst possible conditions. Maybe it was the Captain Morgan kicking in, actually it was quite nice mini review coming, but I like characters whether male of female that just cope with odds and wait for the good luck to swing back again. You could call that adaption, but life generally is filled with good and bad luck situations; we can never have it just one way. Even with bad luck, say a prolonged period, eventually, or possibly, your luck changes and you get back on your feet and back up again. Woddy Allen mentioned this, I remember seeing an interview with him and how he said that he has been incredibly lucky, that one doesn't 'make their luck' pe se, he is right to a degree. You have to position your self for a change in circumstances, that is the knack. Many don't, if a period of misfortune occurs, even if it is relatively minor. They just except their lot with all it's misery.

So characters like the Taskmaster rings a bell, I liked the idea of a guy that just cuts it, some cash is flowing in, he has some company from time to time (female); he is just trying to roll, when the next big thing comes his way. Which is essentially what the 'Initiative' story was somewhat about, the Taskmaster seeing that the situation that he was involved in is turning south and he is trying to make his plan to get the fuck out.

So there you go.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

AUD put 2010

As brave as it is I have a put on the AUD. I am no George Soros (ref: to his (in)famous play against the GBP in the early 90's), but I have fond memories of 2008 refer to chart:

Prepare yourself (and your portfolio) for a coming debt crisis and a Chinese hard-landing (crash) 2010 - (update 7)

The market is preparing for a Greek default as the yield on Greek 2yr notes jumped to more than 12% from 8.3% in the last couple of days (from Wednesday 21st April 2010).

The reality for the bond markets in relation to the EU (PIIGS) spreads, is that a gap is widening between German bunds and the less stable EU countries; as Greece starts to go into a default death spiral.

The bond markets know that a default will be inevitable and so does the FX market, refer to the below chart:

Note that the support (in red) is essentially the EUR collapse (support) line, if it goes under 1.28 the EUR has collapsed and may drift to the lows reached in March 2009 (global financial crisis), prior to the liquidity rallies on global indices.

Although slightly oversold on a daily chart, the Time Series Forecast (TSF) is showing a 1.33 price; but all indicators continue to show a downward pressure.


Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Prepare yourself (and your portfolio) for a coming debt crisis and a Chinese hard-landing (crash) 2010 - (update 6)

It would probably be prudent for all traders to create an RSS feed which is all Chinese economic news.

The market mover now will be China, especially on any substantial slowdown in 2010/2011

Shanghai composite SSE


MEC.RESEARCH mini reviews (update 6)


Flor De Cana Rum aged 7 yrs. Very good, has a nice caramel smell, sweet with that rum aged flavour. Drink 'neat' or on ice, but on ice it went down better for the palate


Herradura 'Anejo' Tequila. Wow, you know for a Anjeo (aged Tequila) this is not a smooth at all, the Partida Blanco is smoother than this; so is it nice? It's ok, first bottle bought and it will be the last. So there's your answer (update* tried again compared against the Partida Blanco, the Herradura tasted bitter, almost off; I poured it down the sink).



Daredevil #506 writer Andy Diggle Art Marco Checchetto

This is just a great run for Daredevil, if you don't know the character, well as Kevin Smith puts it, 'Daredevil is the Grateful Dead of comics', which I guess he means that the character has that cult, devoted following. Some writers managed to depress his character like Brian Bendis did, but Diggle has re-worked Daredevil as the fighter that he is, blind and psychologically complex but he hangs in there. This series is all about Ninjas, death-cults, violence, sexy women and betrayal (sexy women betrayal).



Eames dinning chairs

Yes I have always wanted an Eames chair, designed in 1946 this chair wasn't pumped out by draftsman in China for a mile long production line. Comfortable, functional and well designed. Original Eames? Well you are looking at some big bucks, mine is a locally made replica and reasonably priced. Nevertheless designed exceptionally well with no details left out (I have compared against the original).

Market is making very little gains on petered out liquidity rallies

The dow still rangy, economic reporters upbeat (by the close of Tuesday 20th US markets, you would have thought the dow made new highs, but it only musted up 25 points ) but in the meantime the EUR has been absolutely slaughtered in the last 24hrs

refer to graph:



What does this all point to? Nervousness and uncertainty, especially Sovereign risk and contagions, yes the US can print money and sustain equities (to a degree) but this will eventually wane on risk averse trading environments. Also one should watch China on significant slowdown
in 2010.

Monday, April 19, 2010

The Dow - a sucker rally after Friday 16th April 2010 sell off

We should be careful here using the term sucker rally only because it was used when equity markets rallied like no tomorrow after the march 2008 and Nov 2009 lows were reached. But those rallies were on the back of massive central bank and goverment monetary stimulus. Which has been argued actually went straight into stocks (Wall Street) and market speculation (as interest rates discouraged saving). But it didn't go into everyday consumers as US employment rates indicate that the US stimulus was a flop.

But the Obama administration with it's individual goverment departments, that being the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) decided to press with fraud charges against Goldman Sachs, more particularly the Goldman Sachs CDO (collateralized debt obligations) fund. The SEC investigation found that the manager of the Goldman Sachs hedge fund would pick decayed mortgage baked securities (that were inserted into CDO's) sell them to clueless clients, then short sell the market or products he sold - thus making money on products he knew were rubbish. The Dow, with the S&P 500 reacted accordingly as discussed in Rangy markets persist - Dow claws to 11000 support, the Dow has been showing nervous and rangy behavior since it fell out of it's trading range on the 20th Jan 2010. A sudden panic sell is to be expected, and we got one on the 16th April 2010; this sell as discussed was brought on by the fraud charge via the SEC aimed at Goldman Sachs. The market reaction was more driven on market fear, rather than Goldman Sachs fate (which won't be anything significant), that a correction in stock markets is well overdue since the 2008/2009 rallies.

The recent relief rally is more like a sucker rally has trading in the Dow becomes thinner and the fundamentals still don't justify large rallies. So you could argue that the sell on the 16th April 2010 was a warning shot to markets, that within the next 3 months a major correction will occur.

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Prepare yourself (and your portfolio) for a coming debt crisis and a Chinese hard-landing (crash) 2010 - (update 5)

Greece is heading towards a bailout with the EU offering the 30billion EURO to be tapped. Why? Greece will struggle to sell it's debt (10yr at 7.00%), so a default fear lingers. Which means that a bailout package will activate for Greece very soon. Which also means that Greece has structurally defaulted in the sense the austerity measures aren't tuff enough and Greece is struggling to reign in public spending.

Wouldn't it be simpler to boot Greece out of the EU? Either way, the bailout of Greece will still send a chill through the markets as Portugal and Italy start to make some noises (that don't sound too good) in the coming months.

The markets are running on a psychological upswing from China's 11.9% GDP (q1) numbers and the US maintain liquidity (which flows into equities as interest rates on cash remain close to 0%). But as bubbles occur in China and a contagion of debt problems in Europe; markets may not be factoring in a China tightening policy and/or a bail out for indebted European countries. A major panic sell could be on the cards within the next few weeks.

China will implode (economically) someday

Maybe sooner than we think GDP 11.9% GDP growth in the 1Q, exports down and trade deficit at 7.2billion.

Overcapacity and a country running on goverment loans (stimulus).

The Sirens and the victim - the power of seduction (update 1)



The Sirens and the victim - the power of seduction (update 1)

Robert Greene (author) put out a great book by the name of the Art of Seduction, not an manual pe se but a historic account of how seduction manifests it's self in society and history. Seduction has not changed in the thousands of years in our civilization and all it's cultural development. It stays the same. Eliot Spitzer was the NY governor before he fell from grace after it was revealed he was seeing high class call girl Ashley Dupre (picture above).

Spitzer was the prefect victim in a seduction, a legal/political power broker and critic of Wall Street , she (Dupre) could justify the $2,000.00 an hr and continue to utilize the exposure (now she has projected her self onto the Playboy persona), so a re-balancing of power should maintain (Spitzer has certainly attempted to regain some credibility), to a degree. But never completely close to a male's power, but the survival mechanisms of sexuality/seduction to gain favours will never go out of vogue.

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Rangy markets persist - Dow claws to 11000 support

From a traders perspective the difference between the S&P 500 and the Dow, is that the Dow will give you more bang for your buck, depending which way you trade either a call or put. So when major economic events occur the fluctuations are greater on the Dow rather than the S&P 500.

The markets, in my opinion, are showing a nervous and rangy trade. The incline of the Dow has been limited to the say the least, it dropped out of it's trading range on Jan 20th 2010 and to date has desperately tried to reinstate the rally that started in November 4th 2009. The Dow finally punched through the 11,000 resistance and now is trying to establish a support above 11,000. But with average of 21.40 point gains a day (from March 7th 2010 to the April 13th 2010) the Dow isn't showing any substantial upward point swings.

Pivot points are showing a resistance (R3) at 11,145.96 with a pivot point reversal possibly at 11,000; if 11,000 PP is broken, the Dow will be under the 11,000

This will indicate that the nervous and rangy trading on the Dow will continue until a major correction sends the index down. Trading will remain muted.

Monday, April 12, 2010

MEC.RESEARCH - Gallary



The above artwork is available for sale. Framed art is approx A5 size centered within a A4, resin coated paper.

$450USD or in Australia $350AUD

please email: sheolonearth@gmail.com

All images copyright (A.Glass)

S Magazine #10



I like this magazine a lot. It's thick, full bodied and decadent. In a good way. The photography is excellent, innovating and interesting to look at. Plus you get to see various tier models get naked. But this is no mens magazine pe se, it's stylized collection of nudes. A raw, as mentioned, decadent feel, but it feels expensive, not excessive. So you are not going to magazines racks full of similar publications. Although nudes now in fashion magazines seem more prevalent, the overall feel of S magazine is distinct.

With a saturation of 'chewing gum' porn and images, you forget how good well taken nude photography can be; it's subtle and seductive. S Magazine combines the female and the masculine in a blur of desire and sex.

This current issue has an interview with actress Juliette Lewis, Swedish singer Lykki Li and a photo spread of porn star Jesse Jane, plus some art music/reviews.

Review: S Magazine #9

Sunday, April 11, 2010

The Banks are preparing for inflation - Credit purchasing power will dimish.

Between 2008/2009 we had what is now known as they credit crisis or financial crisis. The credit markets froze and economies essentially fell off a cliff face. Massive monetary and fiscal policies flooded the global economy with liquidity from bank bailouts through to tax offsets for housing and cars, the idea (albeit simple) was to reinstate spending and consumption, unfreeze the credit markets and allow ecomomy to continue credit expansion (which was the man problem prior to the credit crisis).

Now the tell tales signs are emerging of a next crisis, or a mixture of two (inflationary/debt crisis), the inflationary problem which is beginning now with oil sitting over $85.00 a barrel and gold being bought; both these two commodities represent the falling value in real currencies, at this point the EURO (re: Greece/problems) and later the US dollar. But regardless, both oil and gold are been bought in tandem with the US dollar (currently a risk averse buy). The inflationary precursor is now emerging within the credit markets which derives 'nominal' interest rates from the yields of monetary debt (bonds) and at this point are all steepening (yield curves). This interest rate inflation gauge is then passed on to the consumer, via credit, namley credit cards, car loan and home loans. Simply put credit purchasing power will begin to diminish, a natural curb on credit expansion by the increasing yields on bonds.

The problem of course is that governments and central banks attempting to keep the credit markets liquid, essentially they have, have failed to understand that credit purchasing power measured to inflation will start to diminish eg you end up paying more for credit which means paying more back to the lender. This situation may hamper the housing recovery as the repayments on home loans will increase and asset values decline. The currently reason for yields on debt increasing, therefore real interest rates on credit are going up, is the bond market are over supplied and the value of debt is now coming under question. Which makes investors demand higher yields on the new debt coming onto the market.

The bond markets on a long term view perceive inflation as an eventuality 1. government/s with massive account deficits and trade deficits will need still to print money (to fund deficits), or devalue currencies to correct trade deficits (leading to inflation) 2. The integrity of goverment bonds is now questionably after recent problems with Dubai and Greece and the rest of the indebted EU countries.

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Greece is heading towards default

Banks, asset managers and treasury traders are all buying default insurance on already purchased Greek debt.

Companies (non financial) are hedging against EURO weakness (buying put options), this all occurring on mass. As investors deep down know that Greece is heading towards a default trigger on everything. So credit default swaps are been bought by lenders as a protection from a widespread asset collapse.

A Greek default scenario looks very certain. Watch gold, USD, Yen on risk aversion buys.

MEC.RESEARCH - Gallary






Poster size images are available email (sheolonearth@gmail.com) for costs. Poster image varies from above images as they have a tonal (aqua) wash through them and are larger. There is also a hue contrast with cloudscape, also in larger format.

Ideal for designer space, interior design or presentation interiors (example shown soon on MEC research).

All images copyright (A.Glass)

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

MEC.RESEARCH mini reviews (update 5)




Nemesis #1 ( writer Mark Millar, art Steve McNiven)

Mark Millar is a currently a comic PR machine with a two movies under his belt (Wanted and Kickarse), a website called MillarWorld (guarded by a legion of nerd moderators); he is probably one of the less subtle writers in the industry. The shock jock of comics, well he attempts to be, scant dialogue with great visuals (courtesy of some accompanying artists like John Romito Jnr). But a lack of subtleness in comic book writing somehow gets boring, why? Because comics aren't cheap (yes blame inflation), so you need substance, minimalism can work unless it's crafted with distinct style to sell. Yeah he is a popular now, but writers should work harder for their bread. Millar doesn't have a distinct style per se, his style is like hardcore fucking in porn, or like chewing gum that losses it's flavour so you pop another one in in your mouth (or buy another porno...you get the idea). But eventually it becomes mundane.

To me what makes comic interesting is the frustration of a writer that would like to be an artist and an artist that would like to be a writer, there is a kind of friction within the story with what the writer and artist is trying to portray. A rawness in emotion, ideas and so on. Nemesis doesn't have this, it's got 'Hollywood please make a movie out of me' written and drawn all over it; so it's a sell job to a producer.

So what do I think of Nemesis? Jeez, go back 20+ years this would be drawn in black and white and released by some obscure comic book company in the States. It would be cool. It's kinda not now.

Still the art is top notch.