mec.research Store- The Pleasures and Sorrows of Work (Alain de Botton)

Misplaced optimism is deadly - Alain de Botton

I have so much respect for the writer and philosopher Alain de botton, I have enjoyed his books and his documentaries. Such a measured and sensible writer with a plethora of historic accounts on philosophy and how philosophic history is relevant even in todays modern world.

Recently he wrote a piece for the Financial Times (see below), on the idea of misplaced optimism that could lead to greater unhappiness. I agree so much to that and I also believe that optimism, or at least a blind belief in a constant equilibrium or optimism in life - is dangerous and disruptive to true happiness. As optimism should be measured on the ability to overcome adverse events. Not the assumption that the worst is over, but in preparation for 'problems'

Of course the financial markets are the end product of wayward optimism, especially at the present with talk of economic recovery. Which is conflicted by high unemployment and deflation in some economies (note Japan). When you hear the powers at be (leaders) start to say 'the worst is over', be skeptical, as disappointment could burn you worst from that initial fear of an economic meltdown.

Suffice to say Alain de Botton is a voice of sensibility:

from Financial Times:

For a happier life, shake off your misplaced optimism

By Alain de Botton

Published: April 30 2009 19:11 | Last updated: April 30 2009 19:11

It has been clear for a while, at least since the first talk started about “green shoots” of recovery, that what we have to fear above all is hope. Attempts to trust that the worst is over and to stop frightening ourselves seem doomed to project us into yet worse disappointment. We are not only unhappy but – believing calm and happiness to be the norm – unhappy that we are unhappy.

It is time to recognise how odd and counter-productive is the optimism on which we have grown up. For the last 200 years, despite occasional shocks, the western world has been dominated by a belief in progress, based on its extraordinary scientific and entrepreneurial achievements. On a broader perspective, this optimism is a grave anomaly. Humans have spent most of recorded history drawing a curious comfort from expecting the worst. In the west, lessons in pessimism have derived from two sources: Roman Stoic philosophy and Christianity. It may be time to revisit some of these teachings, not to add to our misery but precisely so as to alleviate our sorrow.

To focus on the first of these sources, the philosopher Seneca should be the author of the hour. Living in a time of financial and political upheaval (Nero was on the Imperial throne), Seneca interpreted philosophy as a discipline to keep us calm against a backdrop of continuous danger. His consolation was of the stiffest, darkest sort: “You say: ‘I did not think it would happen.’ Do you think there is anything that will not happen, when you know that it is possible to happen, when you see that it has already happened ... ?” Seneca tried to calm the sense of injustice in his readers by reminding them – in AD62 – that natural and man-made disasters will always be a feature of our lives, however sophisticated and safe we think we have become.

If we do not dwell on the risk of sudden calamity, in the money markets or elsewhere, and pay a price for our innocence, it is because reality comprises two cruelly confusing characteristics: on the one hand, continuity and reliability lasting decades; on the other, unheralded cataclysms. We find ourselves divided between a plausible invitation to assume that tomorrow will be much like today and the possibility that we will meet with an appalling event, after which nothing will ever be the same again. The Goddess of Fortune can scatter gifts, then watch as with terrifying speed a 50-year-old company disappears or a balance sheet is destroyed by toxic assets.

Because we are hurt most by what we do not expect, and because we must expect everything (“There is nothing which Fortune does not dare”), we must, argued Seneca, hold the possibility of the most obscene events in mind at all times. No one should make an investment, undertake to run a company, sit on a board or leave money in a bank without an awareness, which Seneca would have wished to be neither gruesome nor unnecessarily dramatic, of the darkest possibilities.

Given our financial prowess, we have for too long thought of ourselves as in control of our destiny. We have trusted in the mathematical geniuses who promised us “risk management” and fashioned derivatives so complex we dared not look inside. Such trust could not be further from a Stoic mindset. We must, stressed Seneca, expand our sense of what may go wrong in our lives: “Nothing ought to be unexpected by us. Our minds should be sent forward in advance to meet all the problems, and we should consider, not what is wont to happen, but what can happen. What is man? A vessel that the slightest shaking, the slightest toss will break. A body weak and fragile.”

Christianity only backed up the Stoic message. It pointed out that while humans might strive for perfection, it is a problem – indeed a sin – to suppose that such perfection can ever occur on earth. Nothing human can ever be free of blemishes. There cannot be an end to boom and bust, mayhem and death.

We have tended to cast such gloomy messages aside. The modern bourgeois philosophy pins its hopes firmly on two great presumed ingredients of happiness, love and work. But there is vast unthinking cruelty discreetly coiled within this magnanimous assurance that everyone will discover satisfaction here. It is not that these two entities are invariably incapable of delivering fulfilment, only that they almost never do so for too long.

When an exception is misrepresented as a rule, our individual misfortunes, instead of seeming to us quasi-inevitable aspects of life, weigh down on us like particular curses. In denying the natural place reserved for longing and disaster in the human lot, the bourgeois ideology denies us the possibility of collective consolation for our fractious marriages, unexploited ambitions and exploded portfolios, and condemns us instead to solitary feelings of shame and persecution for having stubbornly failed to make more of ourselves.

We should, of course, instead remember the great pessimistic voices of history. There are two quotes I cherish for these sorts of times. One is from Seneca: “What need is there to weep over parts of life? The whole of it calls for tears.” The other is from the French moralist Chamfort: “A man should swallow a toad every morning to be sure of not meeting with anything more revolting in the day ahead.”

The writer’s most recent book is The Pleasures and Sorrows of Work

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009

World Crisis scenarios for the 21st century - Bird Flu (H5N1) and other pandemic Virus concerns (update 9 )

World Crisis scenarios for the 21st century - Bird Flu (H5N1) and other pandemic Virus concerns (update 9 )

There is a high probability that this virus [H1N1] or swine flu is mutating rapidly into global pandemic that human immunity has not confronted before. Therefore this influenza virus could end up being deadly to healthy immune systems. The WHO organization has lifted the pandemic alert to 5 (closer to 6 which is the final pandemic alert). Screening at airports is probably useless, in the sense the infection is probably already in most countries, either incubated in carriers, or as a mild form of flu. It should be noted that the Spanish Flu out break of 1918 started mild and then became a serious pandemic. This new outbreak could be the same.

The Swine flu is unknown in it's genetic makeup, this influenza could be a whole different ball game, as there is speculation that this virus could be passed onto pets, dogs and cats from humans. Although this needs to be rigorously studied before evidence of human to animal can be determined.

mec.research Store - WAR MACHINE (Marvel Comics)

WAR MACHINE #4 WRITER: GREG PAK. PENCILS: LEONARDO MANCO (Marvel comics)

Great comic, written for the sign of our times. Injustice in foreign lands, torture and exploitation of civilians, US sanctioned private armies running the show, corrupt officials, corrupt world and a virus outbreak (turns people maniacal zombies with super powers).

The art by Leonardo Manco is fluid, with just enough 'gritty' realism. Story by Greg Pak hits the right notes, as far as revealing the underbelly of US foreign relations that involves tapping a countries resources with brutal force. A tough comic in someways, don't read this after a day of news reports. Actually read this after a day of news reports.

S&P 500 over valued? The Fed money pump keep stocks buoyant. Supports could break on more 'gloom'

The S&P 500 rallies despite overwhelming bad news. This has occurred because of several things, one the Fed is thawing up credit markets for the larger companies to tap (sorry not for the consumer), earnings are on the back of tax payer bailouts, particularly the Banks for the 1st quarter of 2009. Risk is back with a vengeance, so a stock bubble is forming even in oversold markets. With valuation's up to 14+ times earnings, so it would indicate that institutional investors, or bigger brokerage firms have reaffirmed risk appetite. Considering how fucked up the US economy is, I am looking for a further drop in valuation to say, 'yes the market has bottomed'; and that could be months off. Big brokerage firms like Goldman Sachs and the rest of Wall Street will naturally fall into feverish risk taking again, and guess what? They can tap the US taxpayer when Wall Street hits a downside.

Still, what goes up comes down. Which might keep stocks in a bear market are the major problems of companies earnings into 2009, more so the larger banks and consumer based companies (like tech stocks, i.e we will be holding on to our old software and computers). The US recession continues on, despite an over valuation ( as mentioned stocks are not that cheap). The S & P 500 could fall further into 2009, in fact it could touch lows or go below 676 (March 9 2009).

Of course nothing is without disturbance, market analysts, traders and economists should factor everything in (long term), from geopolitical, future economic peril, particularly bank issues, bank bankruptcies and further large underemployment figures. Then their is a flu pandemic. So it is extremely unlikely that this is the beginning of a bull market.

Still as Marc Faber said recently, the 'Fed will keep printing money' despite continue gloom, as excess liquidity will support stock prices more so the S & P 500. So it's a tug of war of fundamentals (reality) and a US Federal Reserve printing press. Something will give at some point. Hard to say when, but a another shock to the stock market is on the cards. Could be closer than we think, particularly if the Pandemic starts to crunch economies, more so Asia (Singapore, South Korea and Japan).

World Crisis scenarios for the 21st century - Bird Flu (H5N1) and other pandemic Virus concerns (update 8)

World Crisis scenarios for the 21st century - Bird Flu (H5N1) and other pandemic Virus concerns (update 8)

"Mexican authorities today raised the toll of suspected swine flu-related deaths to 159 while revising down the number of confirmed deaths to seven from 20." from Bloomberg

"suspected swine flu - related deaths" The WHO needs to clarify how dangerous this virus is to human health. Can it mutate to a more deadly strain? A lot of questions.

World Crisis scenarios for the 21st century - Bird Flu (H5N1) and other pandemic Virus concerns (update 7)

World Crisis scenarios for the 21st century - Bird Flu (H5N1) and other pandemic Virus concerns (update 7)

Has Swine Virus death toll been exaggerated? Recently the WHO have come out and down played the 150+ Mexican death toll, saying only 7 people have died in Mexico. Are the WHO been overly technical about the death toll? To play down panic? In the sense, that deaths directly from Swine Flu is at 7 (according to the WHO), yet possible related deaths or complcaitions from the Swine Flu virus could be 150+ in Mexico. The Mexican authorities claim that 26 (within the 159 reported deaths) of those cases are directly related to swine flu. Why would the Mexican authorities play up the death toll? Makes no sense.

Still it was the WHO that have increased the pandemic alert stage to 4, if they are trying to play down panic, it's hard to say what their angle is; markets will correct with a reversal in risk aversion (stocks, FX etc). But on the whole what is the serious of this Swine flu is could be a rapidly evolving virus, it still may shut down large elements of economic recovery.

World Crisis scenarios for the 21st century - Bird Flu (H5N1) and other pandemic Virus concerns (update 6)

World Crisis scenarios for the 21st century - Bird Flu (H5N1) and other pandemic Virus concerns (update 6)

As the WHO organization lifts the crisis to level 4 (or a scale of 6) closer to a pandemic. The problem with this out break as opposed to the bird flu or even the SARS out break in 2003. Is this flu epidemic has spread quickly and killed more people in a shorter period of time. The other main fear is the virus spreads human to human like SARS very quickly, with bird flu it is still containable due to the animal to human viral constraints, so a quick response and destruction of infected livestock can be done quickly.

Markets reacted as they would with falls in the US and Asia albeit more muted falls in Europe. Still if you have been following this blog for awhile, I did indicate that a crisis like this could emerge soon. This is why I have shifted some of my stocks to bigger pharmaceuticals and solid biotech companies. I did this at the start of the year when the share prices were cheap. Although these rallies could end up falling back on profit taking, if we do move to Stage 5 or even Stage 6 (Pandemic), you will see some major gains in pharmaceuticals and biotech stocks.

Rise in Biotech ('red' index) stocks, a speculative buy as the market looks at 'crisis' stocks.


But with the investments aspect aside the reality of this virus is that it could effect everyone. With fragile economies who are far from recovering, a pandemic could be a severe blow to business and livelihood; not to mention even more strain for already broke countries.

Living: Other People's Money - Men Style.com link

I just haven't got the time or energy to compile a historic collection of excess achieved with 'other peoples money'. But mens.style have, so you might as well check it out here (it's good!) .

An exert bellow:

"Beau Brummell—the fashion-obsessed heirhead for whom the term dandy was coined—spent other people’s money as enthusiastically as an AIG exec."

World Crisis scenarios for the 21st century - Bird Flu (H5N1) and other pandemic Virus concerns (update 5)

World Crisis scenarios for the 21st century - Bird Flu (H5N1) and other pandemic Virus concerns (update 5)

A hybrid form of bird flu (Swine flu) has broken out, originated in Mexico already it has killed 86 people. This appears human to human, as oppose to animal to human like H5N1.

for various links regarding market aspects refer to:

Confused markets, deflation/stagflation threats and our old friend gold.

Investments 2009

Investment update - April 2009

Bloomberg recent article here

"Green shoots". The Global economic recovery, or plastic weeds in quicksand? Be concerned regarding a Global tax shortfall.

Economically everything has somewhat been synchronized in a global sense, synchronized boom, synchronized bust, synchronized government response (bank bailout's, stimulus plans etc) and now a synchronized tax shortfall, as goverments all go into deficit and begin their budgets; a global shortage of tax revenue is evident.

The markets should operate in a self corrective manner, when it becomes overbought it corrects, when it becomes oversold it also corrects on the up side. Stock market's all became very oversold after the Lehman Brother's collapse in September 2008. Since that collapse the global financial crisis, or global recession went into overdrive as known by the phrase ' falling off a cliff'. Can it keep falling? Sure no problem. Governments and their central banks have put a support under collapsing asset prices, this has come in the form of stimulus payments to consumers, to bank bail outs (underwriting bank deposits and guaranteeing bank debt, giving banks money), to buying it's own debt (governments bonds) and reducing interest rates. This of course has become hysteria based. The market looks at this in two ways, one a 'wisdom of crowds' (could this economic experiment in supporting assets prices work) or the 'madness of crowds' (is this all going to end in disaster, as government's eventually raise taxes, and the central banks pull liquidity out of the system to combat inflation) - the country economically collapses from debt and hyperinflation. To find an even perspective, especially in the stock markets is to look at the middle ground between those two observations. The simple, or Occam's razor answer to recent stock market rallies is they were and still are oversold indices.

The US economically is a mess, falling inventories, high unemployment and now a Federal Reserve Chairman is flooding the US with liquidity. So the consumer or tax payer is going to be hit with two things, increased taxes (now) and inflation (later) . If at some point the Federal Reserve believes the credit markets have completely unfrozen and low rates have been achieved. Money has too be removed from the markets. This will be done dramatically, as they are hopeless at timing in everything. But apart from all that, the Federal Reserve balance sheet is frightening, already admitting to a loss from the Bear Stearns rescue at $3 billion, who knows how much toxic waste is depreciating on their balance sheet. They can can print money, but when inflation (which remains on food at the present) comes back - it will be a horror story. Plus the shortfall of goverment revenue and the consumer will be hit from all sides, the US recession will be long and hard.

Still the big argument is how far can stocks recover? Hence the degrees of optimism coming back into the market. With Ben Bernanke creating inflows of cash (printing money) and boosting US stocks. Even when stock market giants like Microsoft posts losses. I would rather still listen to pessimists than optimists, especially when the US economy is so fragile. A recovery soon? Impossible, unless employment comes roaring back - then you get inflation and higher taxes to cover the shortfalls. It just doesn't add up to a recovery in 2009, or even 2010. You can blame the Federal Reserve for not only creating this mess in the first place, but now sustaining a flat lined economy, as mentioned the next big concern will be tax shortfalls. Which the world will pay for, thanks to reckless Government spending and bailouts by the central banks.

Deflation is still possible, even with massive stimulus measures. To what extend the swelling inventories of Asia can be sustained with out a massive price plunge is speculative. But the US has to start spending again, or at least the consumer. This is not going to happen anytime soon. Does it give the Fed room to move to keep printing? No, because prices will rise on the back of tax increases. I suspect globally this will happen all at the same time. So inflationary pressures may be already upon us.

As far as US stock gains, the tax payer gift to the banks was free money, rallies occurred yet were cautious. Coming quarters should bring some reality back into the stock market.

Morbius Glass quote of the month - May 2009

This quote is dedicated to the US Federal Reserve, particularly the Fed chairman Ben Bernanke.

Their equation is to buy US Treasuries to narrow interest rate spreads. This has added to extra liquidity to the financial system, hence the previous weeks of stock rallies (watch for the sell though), housing refinancing (US) and so on; but the spectra of drug addicted zombie banks (looking for more money) looms and the US unemployment rate will continue to climb. The Federal Reserve is in a hopeless race against the US economy, the more money it pumps the greater risk to severe inflation. Especially when, as mentioned, the banks will need more funds and the US economy could still be in decline into 2009.

So the Morbius Glass quote of the month - May 2009 is from the Wesley Snipes "Blade" (1998) (remember that movie?), quote is towards the end of the movie where he eventually defeats the main villain

"Some motherfuckers are always trying to ice skate uphill"

for previous quotes, please go here

Morbius Glass store - Krav Maga

A big fan of this hand to hand combat system, close quarter, practical and street orientated. An ever evolving martial arts system developed by Israeli special forces with roots that started pre WW2 Europe.

The world is a violent place and will become more violent on a street level with a global recession.

Fornasetti expresso cups

If you are going to buy, you might as well buy quality (hopefully at a discounted price). Well that's what I believe anyway. Just check out the Fornasetti espresso cup range.

So good.

Ressionomics - update 1. Gold pills

Ressionomics - update 1

The 1980's were deemed the 'decade of greed' and in that time Japan was that country that promoted excess like no other. Gold flakes sprinklered on desserts and junk yards with the latest VCR's (I mean it was the 1980's...) and huge tube televisions. Apparently you could also get (from the junkyard) a virtually new sofa and set of snazzy office chairs. But that was the 80's and Japan got hammered when their bubble burst, destroying stock gains for 27+ years and wealth in the process. Now the world faces the same crunch including Japan (even worst!).

But at some point in 2007 Gold Pills were brought onto the market. Created by the Artist Tobias Wong. An attempt at showing the digestible aspects of excess with a 'decade of greed' that puts the 1980's to shame.

Still they look pretty cool huh?

The American Tax Payer is slowly pulling Wall Street out of Recession, while the rest of America sinks.

What a deal. As the banks of Wall Street begin to post higher profits from the 1st quarter, we could possibly see a 2nd quarter of sustained profits, with short term trading and gains on banking stocks. Still the tax payer of American got shafted big time. Can Wall street earnings bring it out of recession (Wall Street) for the rest of 2009? Probably not, yes it could pop out of recession then pop back again at some point in 2009. We have to remember billions of tax funds has been been thrown at the banks, as they bankers wield enormous influence over Washington and of course Obama's crack pot finacial adviser's. From a certified tax dodger Tim Geithner, to a possible fraudster who is the car Tsar, in charge of restructuring the terminally sick US car industry.

I can't help thinking how all this reminds me of how corruptible government can be, especially when a governing system and a collapsing economy leads to desperation. As monetary policy starts to become increasingly a short term gain (for the people in charge), sans the economy and the people. Popular culture reference that comes to mind is the God Father 2, when Michael tries to make the Corleone family legit and realizes that the the legit business men and their congress representatives are 'worst' than the mafia, and 'hypocrites" too.

But that is how it is, a government that has misused tax payer money to bail out the speculators, crooks and liars of Wall Street. Who are now able to hide toxic assets on their balance sheets as they were able to change the market to market accountancy rules (on assets). So does all this mean the they can return to business and start the beginning of a another credit expanded bubble? As Obama says, get 'credit flowing again to the consumer'? No, of course not. The US is in trouble, consumer confidence is almost non existent, they are now in complete survival mode. Betrayed and beaten by an administration policy that should be concerned about the welfare of people that did not speculate nor gamble on the markets. The US government, Federal Reserve and the US treasury should have allowed a slew of banks to disappear, at least a few more investment banks. Allowing Lehman Brothers to collapse was not enough. Meaning that as discussed in World Crisis scenarios for the 21st century - Worldwide economic depression - (update 18), to return confidence to the populous, as far as wanting the people to contribute to the market place again. There should have been justice and punishment, a good example of reckless self interested behavior with lack of justice and punishment were the AIG executives, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac executives and investment banks of Wall Street; there should have been no propping up of these institutions, they should have been dismantled and shamed. With a better, more competent business taking over the assets. The banking systemic risk aspect is negligible in the sense, the world was at the time (and still is) in a systemic based (interlinked) recession. Due to consumption collapsing all at the same time. A few bank failures would have edged us towards a bottom quicker (as far as stocks go). The theory now (Central Banks) is to pump money into banks and lower interest rates, hence the reason that bank failures didn't exist. Of course in high risk environments and with 'free money' - the banks may take risks again and re-lend. It's like drug addicted dealers selling. This may cause another mini mortgage bubble in a distressed market which will end in tears.

So despite the banks trying to reassure the market that they will be profitable, they will still suffer further writedowns into 2009, as America still contracts and the consumer still doesn't spend (in earnest) the recession will be long and hard. Which means the banks will be knocking on congresses door again.

This could point to the Obama's administration to finally let some banks/bad businesses go; which would be the best thing, as discussed in US treasuries and the China Syndrome I speculated that this could happen, then later believed that they were incapable of doing that, but they need the consumer to feel confidant. The consumer wants to see a bad business fail or at least feel that some sought of market justice has been brought upon a reckless and greedy business. In makes absolutely no sense having the consumer take the liabilities and the risk from the banks, while the bank then goes in to profit.

Still with the nature of the markets, rival analysts will tear the bank balances sheets to pieces. So I still believe there will more volatility with banking stocks in the months into 2009.

On the broader economic scale, to have a handful of banks claim profit in the q1 of 2009 and slight bounce in consumer confidence surveys (even through consumers were concerned about inflation) is hardly enough to see a sustained recovery.

Any current bounces in the global economy is on the back of the last huge stimulus packages. I personally believe if inflation is still lurking and the government keeps spending we will still see a further pull back from the consumer, especially when unemployment hasn't peaked.

overbought stocks in bear market - correction looks imminent

Still, there is a pull upward as bulls key in any positive news coming from policy makers. But on the face of it, it is hard to understand why stocks have sustained rallies as they have (apart from the fact they are so oversold sold). Still the market has a slew of bad news to hit town:

China's GDP at over a decade low
US home foreclosures up 24% y/y
US consumer and PPI prices still declining
Poland, Austria are in trouble, in fact include most of Europe.
Thailand gets credit down grade, could indicate downgrades for export driven Asian market - watching Philippines, Singapore, Indonesia
Sable rattling from Russia over possible NATO exercises in Georgia
Consumer confidence is still shattered.

mec.research Store. Human Action: A Treatise on Economics by Ludwig von Mises (book)

Singapore's GDP collapses - Asia may not have a banking crisis, but it has an export crisis

An interesting economic problem has spread throughout Asia (although not unexpected); which is the Asian export market has all but collapsed. This is in a sense going to be Asia's economic 'doom' situation. With the West, particularly America and the UK pumping billions into their banks. We have seen devaluation of both the GB pound and US dollar. So a currency based protectionism is all Asia has to stave off GDP collapse. So the West may pump money into banks (and the broader economy), the east is now trying to keep their export markets alive by selling their currencies and devaluing regional currencies. This is a inflationary central bank policy decision, especially for net importers of oil such as China, Indonesia and South Korea. You can sense that both big export countries such as China and South Korea are now not only over capacitating (swelling inventories) with their exports (from government stimulus), but they will struggle with profits from export markets - particularity if the region attempts to form a 'trade war' with currency devaluation. I think that South Korea's speculative recovery is more a stagflation orientated bounce, as it will inevitable struggle with inflation and over production in the near term.

Japan simple cannot be left out of the equation either, the magnitude of problems facing Japan are staggering.

USD/SGD graph. Note the USD against the SGD, Singapore's GDP has contracted 11.50% from a year earlier. Which is a good bell weather indicator to the dire export markets of Asia.

So there is a current buy on the USD against the SGD, not only from the devaluing off the SGD but also the USD is very oversold:

Japan's human face - severe recession

A new stimulus is just about to be launched standing at $154 billion (US). Rates at 0.5%

It's going to kill their goverment bond market. Their goverment will ensure that Japan will never recover fully from this global recession.

below is footage of the unemployed and low paid workers living in a cyber cafe at $500.00 a month

The morbius glass schlock, horror, 80’s, grindhouse, sex and violence movie marathon - Running Man. Director Paul Michael Glaser.

The 1980's, so much hope. The rise and fall of yuppynism (only to return en masse in late 90's), big blockbuster movies and the creation of one of the most recognizable names in Hollywood action movies, yes Arnold Schwarzenegger. From actor to now mayor of bankrupt California. Still I don't care about him as a politician , it's his contribution to popular culture and his schlock, kitsch and appeal, he had it all.

In early 2000 reality television hit our screens (small TV screen that is), I hated it. Actually to me it was the beginning of the end of a lot of things, or at least the beginning of the excess of the 21st century, say the economic excess that swamped everything and I mean everything. There was no immunity from easy bucks. It was a gorge fest, so with easy availability to finance, with plenty of advertising quirks, they pumped that voyeuristic shit fest onto us, what did we do? We lapped in up. Some advertising guru guy (or girl) might argue, they feed what the market wants, hey I am not going to argue that. But shit is still shit no matter how much you try and disguise it, although it can't be ignored the success of rubbish like Big Brother and other copy cat psychometric set ups i.e a house, hand picked manic depressive narcissists (low end). These reality shows were contrived environments fed back into a relay, produced and edited, then packaged for prime time television. Writers? Who needs them, this shit sells.

Still the fantasy (not just mine) from various writers sci fiction, horror and others, even before reality television became so big in early 2000. Was to see how televising, particular reality style game shows could go, of course this goes back to a backdrop of a society that has completely broken down. Only propped up by an arrangement between government and private entrainment networks to keep the masses happy. Which is the macabre reality based 'roman holidays' (discussed in The morbius glass schlock, horror, 80’s, grindhouse, sex and violence movie marathon. 1970’s doomsday future shock movies; Omega Man, Soylent Green, Roller Ball, Demon Seed). Apart from aspects of Russia's Big Brother, ultra violence in reality is a long way off

Will reality TV eventually head that way?

Running Man is not a protest movie at all, it's a story originally written by Stephen King from the book Running Man (1982). Adapted to the screen in 1987. As discussed it was Arnie's time, in which he fitted so well into the sci fi gene at the time. Is it a Good movie? Well no, it's appeal is it's pop culture reference to a rising star at the time and his one liners. Nevertheless the story backdrop is there of a corrupt system of entertainment, in which prisoners (of the state) are framed and demonised hence the justice inflicted on them in the reality show is justified (from a disempowered public perspective). So Arnie is an ex cop that disobeys orders to kill people involved in a food riot, he escapes prison only to be captured again and then framed as a murder who did kill civilians (we know he didn't). So the movie doesn't go into heavy morality here, but you do get the gist that the public have become a pathetic bunch fooled by a sleazy TV host of the Running Man show.

Think reality based obstacle course show mixed with Wrestling say WWF, with guys chasing you with Chainsaws, sharpened metal hockey sticks and other weapons and you gotta survive. You make it out you are given a pardon. Of course the show doesn't work that way, no Running Man gets out alive.

Running Man has it's moments, especially, like I said, Arnie's one liners including this one:

Arnie to Running Man host, "I'll be back"
TV host, "Only in the re-runs"



for a list of The morbius glass schlock, horror, 80’s, grindhouse, sex and violence movie marathon posts, click here

The Adicts - Joker in the pack

Spain and it's economic depression "Spain's new middle classes slip into poverty"

"Antonio has seen no sign of such work and is looking as far as Africa for employment. He says it is only a matter of time before he defaults on his mortgage.

The couple are ashamed to be seen entering the soup kitchen's grey metal doors, formerly open only to the homeless and elderly. Mari Cruz doesn't take her children inside the hall, where Spaniards and immigrants eat in silence beneath flower-adorned pictures of the Virgin Mary and saints.

"If we had known what was going to happen, we would not have borrowed like we did, but no-one knew," she says, tension in her voice.

A scary article and a sad one from Reuters 8/4/2009: "Spain's new middle classes slip into poverty"

Also a reminder on how an over leveraged housing boom eventually busts. The Spanish housing bubble surpassed the US (per capita) at it's peak. Others include Ireland and the UK (deflated), with Australia still inflating (frightening) albeit volatile.

Please refer to morbius glass coverage of Spain, found here

Also list of post's with Spain as a keyword

Commodity backed currencies will come under pressure.

Protectionist style currency devaluing will start too occur throughout 2009. Lead by the commodity producing countries as their exports continue to shrink. Currencies to watch will be the Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Argentinian Peso and the Brazilian Real

US Dollar/Brazilian Real, US Dollar/Canadian Dollar - weekly graph. With both currencies selling against the USD, especially the CAD (note also the CCI's indicating a decline in the USD):

US dollar/ Argentinian Peso, Australian Dollar/US dollar - weekly graph. Note the rapid buy on the USD over the ARS, also the decline of the AUD against the USD. The ATR indicator on a 14day range is indicating decline on the AUD:

Investment update - April 2009

Overbought stocks and currencies (in bear market) could be in for a big sell. Index puts and currency puts on risk currencies, namely commodity producing currencies. Bad news will come in thick and fast into 2009. Banks stocks are risky as they may prove more volatile, good for short term trading, otherwise sit on sidelines for a long term opportunity. Gold and silver are a still good hedge. Japanese stocks could be attractive towards the end year, depending if Japan can bounce off it's depressive bottom. Possible ETF buys for larger Japanese companies. Watch pharmaceuticals developing or distributing flu and viral drugs, especially Malaria (spreading due to global warming).

*morbius glass does not give investment advice. Trade at your own risk

Comic Reviews April 2009

X-force/Cable #1 /Written by: Craig Kyle Christopher Yost Art: Michael Choi

What a terrible comic.

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Thunderbolts #130 Written by: Andy Diggle Art: Roberto De La Torre

I got this for the crossover (Magum Opus series 3-4) from Deadpool's current run. Deadpool is tuning out to be an enigmatic character, I mean he is cool. He is fucking crazy too (in a good way), but smart at the same time. A gun for hire that wants his money from Norman Osbourne (who double crossed Deadpool). He runs rings around The Thunderbolts whilst trying to date the Thunderbolt team leader Blackwidow 2.

A multi tasking and split personality nutjob is able to checkmate all of them. Although he still hasn't reached Osboure as yet. Good stuff.

World Crisis scenarios for the 21st century - Worldwide economic depression - (update 18)

World Crisis scenarios for the 21st century - Worldwide economic depression - (update 18)

Can the global economy avoid a 2nd great depression? As the G20 meeting fades along with it's politically motivated rhetoric, you only have to look at what occurred prior to the G20 meeting. Governments around the world (for short term political point scoring) have poured billions into their separate economies, from stimulus handouts to the taxpayer, to huge infrastructure money pledges, to bailouts of their car industries, through to bank rescues. All utilizing public monies to guarantee and remove liabilities from the private sector and allow the tax payer or consumer to then hold onto deprecating assets. In other words the governments of the world are desperately trying to support asset prices. The theory is a simple one, 1. To restore confidence with the consumer. 2. to free up credit markets and have credit flow back to the consumer, so we can spend again.

Of course the reality is that none of those measures that government's have embarked on will work. Despite recent gains in oversold equity markets and a slight bounce in consumer sentiment (US). Some economists are now already calling a bottom to the markets and now are also indicating that a U shaped recovery is occurring. Which will take us into 2010 with tentative recovery in growth towards the end of 2010. Unfortunately economists especially with the current Keynesian modeling do not factor sociological, cultural and even anthropological factors into their equation; they believe that money pumped back into economy will re inflate decayed markets and rebuild confidence in shattered markets.

The key is rebuilding confidence that as mentioned has been 'shattered'. As humans beings with thousands of years of cultural significance ingrained into our psyche, we demand justice as a way of seeing a suitable punishment take place. Which means for our community, or society to feel comfortable contributing, purchasing and trading in a market based economy i.e confidence. Instead, our policy leaders bailed out the crooks, the liars, supported their businesses with our money. The excuses? Systemic risk, the fear of the whole economic system collapsing. Which essentially doesn't mean anything to someone who has already lost their job and their house. AIG and Citigroup should have gone bankrupt, the US goverment should have allowed a slew of failures, instead they allowed one investment bank to fail Lehman Brothers.

Once failed, incompetent business were bailed out by the US goverment, the idea is then too regulate the pay of upper management, then slowly remove the money 'drip'. These companies are not only zombies, but they are drug addicted zombies; for taxpayer capital. So a slow repair of corporate decayed industries (as superficial as it is) is not enough to restore confidence with the consumer. Punishment didn't occur completely for companies that have acted irresponsibly and reckless in a criminal type manner - suitable punishment would have been to have them go bust and shame the upper management. All these companies should have failed. Adding insult to injury not only were they bailed out by the taxpayer they were still payed retention bonuses (albeit reduced). So in summary the central banks and governments of the world, particularly the Federal Reserve and the US government will be unable to restore confidence back into the market. It's a pipe dream. But do they care? They should, they need the consumer to start spending. He/she is likely to horde as there has been such a betrayal of tax payers, that consumer confidence may take years to recover. Hence prolonging a recession

No country in history has been able to underpin or support assets, especially when the free market of market place is then replaced by a economic model that supports falling asset prices. A form of socialism, albeit supporting the rich; that will not let the market collapse naturally in a boom/ bust cycle. Instead replacing falling asset prices with taxpayer money, in turn the country tries to recapitalize as it enters a protectionist policy. By supporting and printing it's own currency and then pumping money back into it's ailing economy. It then needs to self capitalize, in the case of the US and it's central bank it then buys it's own debt. This in it's self causes huge liabilities and pressure on the governments balance sheet. Eventually the economic system collapses under a weight of it's own worthless currency (inflation) and unprofitable industries. History shows examples of governments that support falling assets, or governments relying heavily on devalued currency these are former communist countries such as Russia, Poland and the former eastern bloc, current examples are Cuba and Nth Korea. Banana Republic countries of South America. High inflation money printing countries (to support a collapsed economy) such as Zimbabwe and Iran. Once a country exhausts it's economic resources, debases it's currency it will eventually impoverish it's people with high taxes and inflated prices.

Governments supporting assets prices is a doomed policy.

In a economic sense globally we are now at a L shaped junction, the US and the world will bump along for years with slow and negligible growth, the US possibly will technically go in and out of recession every year ad infinitum. with no real sustained growth ever occurring. The world may just scrape along on a flat line of economic growth. Until a major shock occurs, a pump prime; which could be a major environmental, social threat or an inter continent conflict. Which forces society to begin preparing industries to cope with a dramatic change.

Morbius Glass old blog address

http://morb.wordpress.com/

Lock in puts: equity rally, EUR, AUD Rally and emerging markets all oversold (in bear market)

All current rallies from stocks, to the current Euro rally are all looking extremely overbought (in bear market). With very few, if any fundamentals that support market optimism:

*US unemployment at 26 year high, watch for payroll Friday

*Euro and AUD in artifical rally (showing oversold signals)

*ETF emerging markets are over sold, put orders overshadow calls

EUR/USD overlayed AUD/USD:












Dow showing oversold signals