Sunday, September 19, 2010

Commodity producing countries under pressure (political/economic - Australia) - Australia's exports pressured/RBA tightning. (update 6)

We have a madman at the helm who seems hellbent on cooling the Australian economy that he believes has been inflated by the mining boom (which the rest of Australia doesn't see).

Of course what has created inflation in Australia is the Australian mega housing bubble, not mining (shipping rates are still low re: Iron Ore). Maintain a tightening bias on top of real interest rates (which are going through the roof) on credit and the Aussie bust will be ensued (small/medium size businesses sans mining will be decimated). Not by a China slow down, but by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Good to watch is Government stats prior (September 30th/October 5th) to central bank meetings. May fudge (true figures) to hold off a tightening cycle.

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