Monday, October 4, 2010

Commodity producing countries under pressure (political/economic - Australia) - RBA badly timed rate cycle (update 10)

Those crazy (and I mean they have lost the plot on the Australia economy) Reserve Bank of Australia 'officials', may begin a rate tightening cycle amidst a global depreciation in emerging economies currencies, rate cutting /money printing and protectionism. Their (RBA) theory has something to do with wage inflation concerns as Australia is at so called full employment, the RBA crappy modeling relies on a wage modeling based on very iffy employment (mostly part time earners) figures; however they seem to deliberately, call it denial, not to factor in mortgage/house payments eating into wages as REAL interest rates are constantly going upward (re: Australia's huge housing bubble research bond yields and CDS spreads, interbank to see that banks/lenders pass on a constant amount on interest/loaned monies).

refer:

"THE Reserve Bank's case for a rate rise today has been weakened by a survey of prices showing inflation has almost disappeared.

The measure of core inflation preferred by the RBA has not changed at all in the past two months and rose by only 0.1 per cent in July, according to the monthly inflation gauge compiled by the Melbourne Institute and TD Securities.

"There's no case for a rate rise in the current data," TD Securities senior strategist Annette Beacher said yesterday.

However, financial markets are putting a 50 per cent chance on the Reserve Bank lifting its benchmark cash rate by 0.25 per cent to 4.75 per cent today. It would be the first increase since May and would lift the standard mortgage rate to 7.65 per cent, its highest level since October 2008.

This good be further proof that household income is being eroded by high rates on mortgages and credit, thus effecting the purchasing power (spending power). Also indicative that the Australian property bubble is at bursting point. A RBA cash rate increase could quadruple with passed on rates via banks.

The RBA with antiquated modelling (not factoring in China market 'distortions') and single minded bullishness maybe solely responsible for imploding the Australian property bubble.

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