Tuesday, October 26, 2010

The AUD is becoming extremely overbought. (update 7) - mini flash crash



Sustained selling will now occur on 2.00am GMT hedge funds, although a mini flash crash occurred after ABS figures were released on Australia's CPI:

Q3 CPI @0.7% market expected @0.8% Q3 CPI @2.8%y/y vs @2.9% market expected. RBA weighted median @0.5%q/q - @2.3%y/y. RBA Trimmed mean @0.6%q/q - @2.5%y/y.

A 'mini flash crash' could eventuate into a full blown 'flash crash' if the 50day moving average is knocked out combined with USD short covering and global stock market corrections in the next 12hrs. Sovereigns, model funds will start to unwind longs very quickly. A good example of when a currency becomes a bubble with speculative 'inflows', then sinks (very quickly) with 'outflows'

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