Sunday, October 31, 2010

Bank of Japan, Ministry of Finance fire off a round in the FX Wars (YEN/USD) melt-up.


Nice melt-up and a reminder to the academics and G20 flunkies, that when a country intervenes in the markets is to protect their tribe: it's all sociology/anthropology 101 baby...

That is the raw fucking reality of markets. Not fantasy based socialism/Keynesian happy land illusion, that somehow an equilibrium of consciousness/decisions in the market place can occur. In fact, that theory is far more dangerous than allowing markets to adjust naturally. This FX intervention/war is primarily based around the Keynesian belief in bailouts and stimulus which has distorted markets, thus the protectionist (FX or otherwise) problems will become more widespread.

The YEN/USD melt-up had a lot to do with the domestic car market in Japan looking very poor which cannot be offset with the strong YEN v's USD for export markets. With reports that Honda could be in a very problematic financial situation.

TOKYO (Nikkei)--Rocked by the end of government subsidies for environmentally friendly vehicles last month, domestic new-car sales for October are down some 20% on the year, the Nikkei reported in its Saturday morning edition.
Total new-car sales for the month stood at roughly 240,000 units as of Thursday. Fuel-efficient vehicles that benefited from the subsidies saw particularly steep drops.
Sales have fallen off roughly 20% at Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.TO) and by about 30% at both Nissan Motor Co. (7201.TO) and Honda Motor Co. (7267.TO). Sales were even weaker at midtier automakers, with declines of 30-50%.
The figures were calculated based on newly registered vehicles, with Friday the final registration day for October. Registrations tend to concentrate at the end of a month, "so in months like this, when figures are bad, automakers push for as many registrations as possible," says a salesperson. Therefore, the final monthly tallies are still uncertain.
But if Friday's registrations prove thin, the sales decline could mark an October record.
Orders have been sinking since September at all automakers, with Honda-affiliated dealerships suffering a roughly 40% drop last month, and Toyota faring somewhat worse. This trend seems to have continued into October.
At Toyota, the drop-off in October sales was just 20% or so because "there are still orders left over from August for the Prius hybrid and other popular models," says an official at a Toyota sales company.
For other automakers, orders accumulated during the subsidy period appear to be offsetting languishing demand, but these are expected to be nearly filled by November.
With "orders currently down some 30-35%," as noted by Nissan Senior Vice President Takao Katagiri, sales may sag further next month.
Tax breaks and subsidies on fuel-sipping vehicles drove up new-car sales 18.7% to 4.04 million units for the January-September period. But new-car sales slipped for the first time in almost a year last month, and if the huge declines continue in October and beyond, full-year sales could fall below 5 million units for a second year running.

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