Thursday, October 14, 2010

Doomsday Trading - France protests, US foreclosure scandal/bond scandal (update 3)

With an overbidded market on primary High Frequency Trading (HFT). Doomsday Trading looks at any precursor events that panic systems into processing rapid sells. More so in risk 'on' hedged trades.

France protests:

from NYT 14th Oct 2010

"PARIS — Strikes against pension changes in France continued Thursday, with the focus shifting from transport — where services were improving — to oil supply, as most of the country’s refineries remained blocked by striking workers.

The French oil industry association has warned of possible shortages by the middle of next week, and in some areas, motorists have been lining up to fill up their tanks, fearing that supplies might soon run dry.

But the government sought Thursday to reassure the population that there was no threat of an imminent shortage of fuel.

“We have what we need for at least a month without major problems,” Dominique Bussereau, secretary of state for transport, told LCI television. Mr. Bussereau and other officials called on the public not to panic and to only buy gas when needed.

Mr. Bussereau declined to comment on whether the government was considering using its stocks, a move demanded by the French truckers’ federation.

President Nicolas Sarkozy appeared unmoved Thursday during a speech to students and researchers near Bordeaux. “We can’t close our eyes faced with our deficit,” he said. “Our duty is to act in the general interest.”

Charles Foulard, a spokesman for the C.G.T. union, said the strike continued Thursday at 10 of the country’s 12 crude refineries.

Total, the largest refiner in France, has wound down operations at its French plants. “There’s no crude going in,” a spokesman said"

Mortgage Bond meltdown looming via Foreclosure mess (US)

From Reuters (Felix Salmon) 14 Oct 2010:


"The enormous mortgage-bond scandal

You thought the foreclosure mess was bad? You’re right about that. But it gets so much worse once you start adding in a whole bunch of parallel messes in the world of mortgage bonds. For instance, as Tracy Alloway says, mortgage-bond documentation generally says that if more than a minuscule proportion of notes in a mortgage pool weren’t properly transferred, then the trustee for the bondholders can force the investment bank who put the deal together to repurchase the mortgages. And it’s looking very much as though none of the notes were properly transferred.

But that’s not even the biggest potential problem facing the investment banks who put these deals together. It also turns out that there’s a pretty strong case that they lied to the investors in many if not most of these deals."

Foreclosure Scandal (US)

Telegraph 12 Oct 2010

"Anyone who thought the American housing crisis was starting to abate should think again. In fact it threatens to enter a new, and possibly even more destructive phase. The cause is growing foreclosure abuse. This has already prompted Bank of America and JP Morgan to call a moratorium on foreclosures. The White House is under growing pressure to extend this to a nationwide ban.

Good news, you might say, and indeed on one level it is. Mortgage servicers (loan sharks to you and me) have been making hay to the eternal misery of distressed homeowners by forcing foreclosure in record numbers. They make more by foreclosing and selling the properties on than they do from negotiating a workout on reasonable terms with the householder.

The term “robo signatures” comes fom the practice of signing foreclosure approvals in a robotic fashion without regard to underlying circumstance. Legally, it’s very easy to do.

More than 40 US state attorneys general are poised to announce an investigation into the mortgage services industry in the hope this will allow for a more accommodative approach to homeowners who are in arrears. As I say, this all looks more than justified.

Yet there are many associated risks with a blanket ban. There was an excellent comment on all this by “emmiem” posted on the web version of my column this morning for The Daily Telegraph – “Jobless America threatens to bring us all down with it” – which explains what a hopeless mess the Americans have got themselves into on mortgage finance. Mortgages in America have been packaged, sliced, diced and resold so many times than nobody fully understands where rights of ownership truly lie any longer."

disclaimer: MEC Research - trade at your own risk

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