Monday, October 4, 2010

Commodity producing countries under pressure (political/economic - Brazil) - election stalemate (update 9)

Brazil, like Australia (although terminology is different) has entering into a hung Parliament, or a 'run off' election (another election is held at a later date). Good indication of strains on commodity producing ecomomies that are facing political uncertainly and voter backlash. May also indicate that inflation/and or stagflation concerns are arising; with China re-inflating it's economy in a perpetual boom cycle and trying to manage it's over heated property markets. Market distortion via the Federal Reserve quantitative easing number 2 set for November 2010 and China, have sent emerging economies currencies in an appreciation cycle or bubble.

Negative reverberations in the 'wealthy' commodity producing countries (via China demand) may be the stark warning signs of a global slowdown/China crash

refer:

BRASILIA (Dow Jones)--Brazilian government-backed presidential candidate Dilma Rousseff is ready to hold dialogue with third-place Green Party candidate Marina Silva to gain support in a runoff election later this month, Rousseff said Monday. Rousseff attracted 46.9% of votes in a first-round election Sunday. The total fell short, however, of the 50% necessary to win the election. Leading opposition candidate Jose Serra of the Social Democracy Party got 32.6% of the vote and Marina Silva 19.3%. Rousseff will face Serra in a runoff election Oct. 31. Discussing the results at a press conference Monday evening, Rousseff said that, after the commotion settles from the first-round election, her campaign plans to approach Silva and her Green Party allies. "We're going to be able to show to this segment that we are better able to represent their interest than our adversary," Rousseff said. Political analysts note that support from Silva and her constituency could be critical for Rousseff or Serra to clinch victory in the runoff. Marina Silva, who formerly served in the government of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva as environment minister, quit her post in 2008 after reported disagreements with Rousseff over policies related to infrastructure projects and development. Rousseff, meanwhile, said that a large coalition of allies elected to congressional and gubernatorial posts in the nationwide election Sunday would be helpful in obtaining the necessary support in the second round. Rousseff met in Brasilia Monday with a large contingent of recently elected allies to discuss her bid for the presidency. She said that during the second round of the campaign she would focus on the issues of health care, education and security. Rousseff also reaffirmed her plans to compare policies of the Lula government to those carried out during the years of former Brazilian president and Serra ally Fernando Henrique Cardoso, of the Social Democracy Party. She said her campaign meant to continue a "transformational" project carried out by President Lula to achieve sustainable growth, development, and jobs. She said this would involve a reduction of domestic interest rates to levels used internationally and a continued reduction of the country's debt, which has fallen over the past eight years to the equivalent of around 40% of GDP from 60% previously. Brazil's reference Selic interest rate currently stands at 10.75% annually, and rates on consumer loans have hovered at levels of around 40% annually.

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