The Japanese Financial Service authority is just about to change the rules of the 0.50% leverage to 0.25% and most Japanese retail investors are holders of long position/s on the AUD and NZD and YEN crosses (with leverage at 1:100)
Some major selling going to take place: August 2010
" The yen may climb next month as tighter regulations force Japanese households controlling about $76 billion in daily exchange trading to unwind bets on higher- yielding currencies, analysts said.
The government will cap debt used to boost trading bets, or leverage, at 50 times committed cash from August 2010, down to 25 times in 2011, the Financial Services Agency decided last year. Individual traders have started to prepare for the change, according to Japan’s biggest online currency broker which saw accounts with 100 times or more leverage fall by half last month."
"Trinh recommends selling the Australian dollar, saying it may retest the 72 yen level reached in May amid ebbing sales in Japan of overseas-focused mutual funds and a pattern of seasonal weakness for the Aussie in August.
Net short positions on the yen, equivalent to yen carry trades, stood at 1.89 trillion yen ($21.6 billion) at the end of June, up 59 percent from the previous month, according to the Financial Futures Association of Japan, which compiles data from 57 margin brokerages."
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