Thursday, July 22, 2010

Dow and S&P 500 are all topping out, relative to risk barometer currency AUD (updated)

We have a topped out in literally all markets

. The market has already factored in the bullshit '1 bank fail out of all EU banks' stress tests.
*update credibility coming online with EU bank stress tests - Spanish Banks fail (several). Watch for major selling on Europe's open

European 'officials' ECB and IMF, Germany Swiss, UK and the press will all argue about the validity of the results. Leading to volatility (watch LIBOR spreads) until the market rolls over with a fat sell signal.

So all eyes now to India and China with both power house economies slowing, especially India with balance of payments slowing into H2.

Also watch INR (India) and CNY (China) on FX depreciation which indicates that exports are slowing thus currencies adjusting to stay competitive (China's in a perpetual/artifical low adjustment); this should further put strain on the USD crosses (buy). Can be seen also in Oil/gold sells.

topped out charts (Dow, S&P 500) relative to the 'gauge' risk currency the AUD

Dow relative to AUD



S&P 500 relative to AUD

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