Thursday, September 10, 2009

The USD will only recover if China's economy collapses or there is a major war.

* China Aug Retail Sales plus 15.4% on Year up from 15.2% in July
* China Aug Industrial Output up 12.3% on year; plus 12% expected.
* China Aug New Loans CNY 410.4 BLN up from 355.9 BLN in July
* China Aug Consumer Prices -1.2% On Year Ago (F'cast -1.3%)
* China Aug Producer Prices -7.9% On Year Ago (F'cast -8.0%)
* China Jan-Aug Urban Fixed-Asset Investment +33.0% On Yr (F'cast 32.5%)
* China Jan-Aug Exports -22.2% On Year Ago
* China Jan-Aug Imports -22.7% On Year Earlier
* China Jan-Aug Trade Surplus $122.8Bln
* China Aug Exports Seasonally Adjusted Up 3.4% from July
* China Aug Imports Seasonally Adjusted Up 1.0% from July
* China Aug Imports, Exports Seasonally Adjusted Year-On-Year Unchanged
* China Aug Trade Surplus about $15bln (F'cast $12.90bln) -Reuters Calculation
* China Aug Exports About -23% On Yr (F'cast -19.6%) -Reuters Calculation
* China Aug Imports About -17% On Yr (F'cast -10.0%) -Reuters Calculation

As soon as the above figures were released today September 11th 2009 the USD tanked (refer below USD mth graph)

The only way the US dollar can recover is if China's economy collapses, war or some other global panic. Otherwise the USD is truly toast. As for equities, they may still rally (indefinitely) only correcting on something major.

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