Gold price breakout on a 'mini' crisis 2009 (update 1) - Gold has broken out

As discussed in Gold price breakout on a 'mini' crisis 2009. The Gold price had the potential of a breakout from 965.30 which it did on the 3rd September 2009 moving right up to 997.30. Technically gold has been trading very static with low volatility, refer to the Average True range in which gold that has been scraping along under the 14 ATR; with possible exit point/s of 14.43 (ATR) on the 5 and 14 day settings. What that means is that gold is showing low signs of volatility and some profit taking will occur. Still if gold corrects on the downside it should find support on the 50 day average at 944

Gold is currently trading at 991 in Asian trade:


Of course in daily trading there are take profit and stop loss triggers, otherwise gold is holding well under the concern of a possible crisis brewing (and it may not be a 'mini one'). This 'crisis' could be the commercial property market more so the trades in commercial mortgage backed securities. Think sub-prime residential mortgages and prime mortgages (mortgage backed securities meltdown/losses etc) which was the cause for the first credit crisis, that than lead us into the global recession. But add to that thought that the commercial property markets are in every city in the world. All extremely leveraged and all connected to the CMBS market. As the construction boom with commercial property occurred from Dubai, London, Shanghai, Honk Kong, Melbourne, Sydney, New York; so the CBMS market is huge in comparison to the MBS market. So if commercial property values continue to drop, which they are, at some point near term losses will accumulate on balance sheets (if they haven't already in major way). Until banking analysts start to make calls on bank write downs in 2009 and into 2010 from CMBS losses, the market will continue to feel uneasy.

*morbius glass doesn't give investment advice, trade at your own risk

A side note: I have been directly involved with negotiating rent with a big international real estate company. The building which I work in has vacant floors on 7 levels. We were able to get a substantial rent reduction. Prior to us negotiating other agents were literally throwing vacant office spaces at us at ridicules low rents. That is just an example.