Noam Chomsky once said that the truth can be found in all aspects of the media. It somehow comes through, even from tabloid publications and the like.
Governments and their statistical bodies do fudge numbers. You expect that in the markets, as goverment self interest and political gain tends to be paramount over truth. But sometimes the truth is just to strong to hold down as the obvious becomes more pronounced.
The Australian goverment is playing a precarious game of number fudging, 1. they want to ensure (to their voters) that their fiscal stimulus has encouraged employment, 2. they want to protect the mortgage belts and union originated sector by attempting to keep interest rates low. 3 they want to gradually shut down the overseas student intake which in turn frees up jobs (low wage) that students do whilst they study here.
In order for them to do this they need to balance statistics. The Australian unemployment rate is most probably well over 5.8% more so in the rage of 7-8%. Although the August unemployment numbers stand at 30,800 K, the market was expecting a low number (12,500). Yet the overall rate of change stays at 5.8%. This would indicate that the figure is most likely higher, yet the ABS decided to keep the range flat (5.8%) by revising the previous month figure, but couldn't deny that August 2009 did shed a large number, hence the figure that was released (30,800) for the month of August. In other words they (ABS) are trying to smooth out the figures.
This of course creates volatility in the market and eventually a backlash against the goverment come next election. Their hope, or bet? Is the US coming back online, Asia exports picking up and a sharp V recovery in 2010.
This will not happen.
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