Sunday, November 21, 2010

Risk aversion coming back (update 4) - Ireland bailout/PIIGS tumoil just begining

When we talk about turmoil, we are not taking about market turmoil per se, as in the markets. Which adjust to bailouts/yields/CDS spreads all done in a less humanistic basis; an impersonal drive to protect assets. What we are taking as far as turmoil from a humanism perspective is that political and social upheaval occurs more intensely when goverments, 'custodian' type bodies like the IMF start meddling in natural ebb and flows of boom bust cycles, done in the idea of maintain stability. The arrogance is that they believe that financial stability, in their definition, should be constantly supported and controlled . We know this impossible re: collapse of communism, and the US recession and problems relating to the 'bailout' mentality of Barack Obama, who is now essentially a lame duck president. The point is, attempting to protect or insulate the status quo only allows the bad management, or bad businesses to survive; when what should have occur is a natural restructure: social/business/economy etc. But they trying a desperate attempt to justify a theory that simply does not work. In other words allow the markets correct naturally and adapt, we will ALL be better of in the long run. So the ridicules European Central Bank, the pointless International Monetary Fund and the ad hoc irrational decision making of the European Union solution to 'market' problems; is to create a 'cartel' of asset support, or economic support of countries that will should be allowed to fail and then rebuild them stronger. Rather their 'bailout' mentality has never worked in European history, strong and innovative nations evolve from change (social/economic).

That is life. It's never smooth or easy, it is a hard reality of dealing with change and uncertainty. We need support from time to time, but done with the idea of self sufficiency. A lesson that has been ignored and attempted to be remove from the public psyche; the idea replaced with a custodian rule of order, an attempt to maintain structure based on a rigid status quo.

The bailouts of the indebted badly managed PIIGS: Portugal, Ireland, Italy , Greece and Spain, so far has been Greece and now Ireland. The European central bank has been keeping the rest of the 'zombie' countries alive with constant bond purchases. The whole thing joke and a bad one, Greece will NEVER be able to pay it's loans back to the EU/IMF, the country is so economically wreaked it's basically a writeoff that should have been WRITTEN OFF, not bailed out. Ireland is the same, in fact it's worst a soon to be flow of 70billion (EURO) worth of European taxpayer money and IMF loans are going to be pumped into the Irish banking system, that, in their insane economic theory will then go into the wider ecomomy. Of course, the Irish banks will suck the bailout money dry, the pitiful Irish goverment will then attempt a push at austerity onto the populous; cutting basically everything but allowing international companies/banks to exploit Irish weak corporate taxes

It won't work, with the rest of the PIIGs hopping to tap bailout monies for their incompetence, is like giving a 'mentally unstable' drug addict more drugs

The EU/IMF are not only delaying the invertible they are fueling a more brutal restructuring of the European Zone; it will be the social and political upheaval that will cause the major pain for everyone in Europe.

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