Thursday, November 11, 2010

Oil on a 25mth cyclical bull run. Update 10 - Oil 'cruch' at $90?

If we are to believe that China's inflation is running as hot as it is, then there is a possibility that oil could 'crunch' economic growth, thus causing an inflation based oil 'panic'.

I saw a documentary about China's growth, it wasn't so much about the economic aspects (figures, charts and ramblings) that often, or in most cases, misses the intricacies of sociological issues relating to growth, development, trends etc. The one aspect of Chinese growth story is the love affair wit the car, the documentary was fascinating, for the first time in history the Chinese can enjoy driving a car, a freedom that was restricted to them when communistic dictatorship and oppression was at it's peak. Still, the car is that important symbol of that emulation of freedom that we take for granted in the West. Of course the problem is, the Chinese are net importers of oil, so is consumption and trends in buying cars, motorbikes or anything related to a combustion engine puts pressure on the oil price and price inflation.

Oil has been on it's 25mth cyclical bull run, with now the possibility of spikes in the oil price as it nears $90 a barrel. The combination at play is the weakening US Dollar and oil demand, inflation and supply not as prevalent as it once was re: peak oil theory.

Current oil price@87, November high@88 as at 1st-12th 2010

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