Wednesday, November 3, 2010

The Fed does 600billion in money printing; induces several 'mini' flash crashes.

The point is this, the markets have changed. If you are a 20yr veteran or a 10yr veteran, what has happened in less than 2yrs is unprecedented. Apart from the central banks feeding liquidity to the banking system globally, buying distressed assets accumulating en masse unrealized losses onto the balance sheets and abiding to an almost obsessive Keynesian stimulus/bailout 'everything' policy. Which hasn't bailed out the broader economy at all just the banks, which as we know have horded cash, but still suffer from funding issues. But the core psychological analysis of major market players particularly central banks, is they have gone insane. Their repetitive attempts at reviving economic conditions hasn't worked, yet they keep at the same process, the same attempt again and again and again. Not only have they become a 'drug dealer', but also the addict that is losing grip with reality. They have essentially lost their minds and control over the markets, which they never had control over in the first place. At the same time the private market players, the funds, more specifically the hedge funds are now grinding markets in tight bid/offer spreads via computer High Frequency Trading (HFT). We all should get used to this, it's not going away. It is a reality and one that minor players should adapt for, however you think that adaptation can occur.

Market chatter prior to the Fed decision was on the fact that the market believed that the Federal Reserve were going to buy goverment debt at the tune of 500billion. This would be disappointing in the sense the markets wanted a trillion plus to then shove back into equity purchases, yes the American populous would never see any benefit from the Fed money printing (as they haven't yet), of course the Fed doesn't do the over 500bilion but rather lifts it to 600billion. HFT trading locked in a figure at 500billion, this is obvious, please refer to the Dow prior to the Fed revealing the Quantitative Easing 2 (QE2) amount, HFT's sold on a panic drove it down from 11201 down to 11097 (104 point drop) in matter of minutes. At approximately 3:30pm the Fed releases it's amount which was over the 500billion psychological fear sell point. The market melted up very quickly as volume buys kicked in; but if you look at the volume prior to the mini flash crash, it had the trademark HFT 'grinding' on a tight bid/offer.

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Mini flash crashes also occurred on the risk barometer currency the AUD, approximately at 6:00pm GMT four hrs after the Dow mini flash crash

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YEN mini flash crash, which is interesting also a risk barometer currency, it appears the HFT USD sells (YEN buys) occurred at the same time as the AUD sells; approximately 6:00pm GMT time.

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What needs to be watched is now HFT panic sells on something major, this is followed in Doomsday trades. To buy into equities on a mid/long term hold bases is his/her provocative. But, if we get a major sell mechanism kick in and it's due. The current market just doesn't function for long term holdings or maintain stable equity value. It will be sharp and sudden sells.

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