Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Risk buys, High volume (updated)

Across the board. From risk currencies to the S&P 500 and Dow, FTSE through to the DAX. A feverish buy from 'smart' money. This would not be considered a relief rally either, this is a major buy up on a *'happy sentiment'. The European Central Bank/EU has literally guaranteed ALL bonds sales from the PIIGS, thus Greece and Spain where able to sell their bonds at a high yield (risk), with bond holders added bonus, holding high risk EU bonds, may not necessary have to take a haircut when bond values goes south, the ECB/EU (underwriters) will just buy them all at a marked up amount.

*but 'happy sentiment' will go so far especially on interest on debt that countries have to pay as their finances go to shit, re: Moodys AAA threat down grade of Spain

So high yield assets are now being bought, it could argued as discussed above the high risk/high yield market mow is supported by government central bank/intervention; to what extend that central banks can propel indexes to new high is very disputable, as discussed in New highs for S/P 500 and Dow Jones 2010? when are currently trading in a sideways market 10yrs + long, in other words, no new highs; with or with out CB/government intervention. The main question is when the market begins to sell, this may take place when social/political environment becomes more uncertain, private sector contracting, jobless claims are increasing, GDP growth is stagnate to falling, a trade war with China, another 'Lehman' crash ( decayed CMBS's sitting off the balance sheet/s, to eventually become a balance sheet nightmare - some bank/lender), a major conflict (war).

Our economic custodians believe, like voodoo doctors, that they can control the elements, the weather, the sentiment and manage a bullshit smoke screen, but eventually the whole thing is going to end in tears. The cycles of business/economics, like the cycles of weather are extraordinary unpredictable, but what we do know is there are 'good' seasons and 'bad' seasons; in which one should see the signs and wait it out. The overall fabrication of managing or planning economies have failed in the history of the world. What we will be witnessing here is a momentum failure as the debt laden system will collapse.

In the meantime lets try and make some money

Using the Dow as an example for a put/call trade (either EFT or Warrants)

The ACD, OBV and MFI indicators all show upward momentum with higher volume, *resistance is @10540, the range now is the close @10405. Suspected offers would be at the upper range now @ 10500, with pivot point support @10394

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