Sunday, August 1, 2010

Asia is overpricing risk (update 3) - extreme open gap buying

With a frenzy buy on all risk commodity currencies/crosses and stocks. Thin volume and ton of retail/dumb buying (large open gaps on all Asian opens). With China slowing down HSBC China (more accurate than Chinese goverment PMI at 51.2) July PMI down to to 49.4 from 50.4 in June , the first time below 50 since March 2009

"Hongbin Qu, HSBC's chief economist for China, said Monday's reading also didn't spell doom for China's economy. The drop below 50 in the HSBC PMI suggests that manufacturing continued to decelerate, reflecting the combined effect of credit tightening, property-cooling measures and other steps by Beijing to cut capacity in energy-intensive sectors. "However, there is no need to panic because this is just a slowdown, not a meltdown," Qu said

Remember what they said about the US pre 2008 (softlanding) re: China is about to crash: GDP q2 at 10.3% and falling?

Not only should Asian traders/investors be cautious of a rapidly slowing China, but also they should be eyes on the US yield at 2.91%

So we have a big sell coming.

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