Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Not much the US Federal Reserve can do anymore.

The Federal Reserve announced that it would reinvest the proceeds of maturing MBS (mortgage banked securities) into the 2-10yr segment of the Treasury curve; so that is about the best of it. The Fed has 0% interest rates, discount window for repo's for banks/wall street; with a balance sheet that is still expanding from US debt buying. The Fed can keep printing, but as discussed in 0% interest rates (US), money printing: but where is all the money going?, it appears that the banks, like European banks via the European Central Bank money printing, banks are sucking up liquidity with very little appearing into the broader economy. The US consumer is caught between inflation and deflation with a deflationary pull becoming stronger.

Obama will hit the trade war button soon after China appalling trade surplus, huge export growth but a massive decline in imports. This would indicate that China export/industries are still going full blast as their (China) consumer consumption is slowing fast; the problem of course is the Chinese inflated property 'time-bomb' bubble especially the local government's funded property developments, that build 'zombie' malls and shopping areas. The 'Grey/Black Money or corrupt money proceeds have also been filtered into the Chinese property market/s.

The anxiety is when a simultaneous sell on Chinese property takes place; this could be very soon.

The US dollar may not find the weakness that the market is looking for (from mild qualitative easing or buying US Treasuries) as the 'trade war between China and US will keep the USD well bidded as the Chinese (paranoid of an export 'crunch') fix the Yuan rate back towards the USD peg

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