Monday, December 7, 2009

Very mild US Dollar strength and even milder correction occurring - USD/Oil graph

In the last quarter of 2008 starting in September. The markets corrected (significantly), which was lead on by the Lehman collapse (September 2009) and essentially the start of the global financial crisis . Risk aversion was on prior to the Lehman Collapse with the USD regaining strength and climbed to a high of 89.62 on the 2nd March 2009. Of course the US dollar strength was a mixture of the huge amount of risk aversion and selling that took place until markets stabilized in 2009. The oil price collapsed from it's high of 147 a barrel (7th July 2008) which was a prelude to global markets crashing and oil being sent down to 35 a barrel on the 22nd December 2008

There is now a very mild dollar strength coming through on the back of unemployment figures that were released on the 4th December 2009, I'll let market skeptics scrutinize these figures that were released (showing unemployment decreased rapidly in the US over the last 2mths), in the meantime the markets reacted on the precursor that the Fed Fund rate will tighten with the positive unemployment news. This of course won't happen, whether it was political/market motivated figures that were released in December 2009 (US unemployment deceasing), overall US weakness will continue with a Federal Reserve 0% interest rate policy and money printing maintained. We may see a mild correction on end year profit taking (equities), some USD strength albeit mild and oil move lower against a stronger USD. This will be very short term and the growing divergence between the USD and commodities, particularly oil will continue.


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