Thursday, December 3, 2009

Dow maintains trading range towards 11000

But danger ahead.

Dubai World default and the default issues of the Dubai sovereign fund may be the beginning of the problems with debt/bond markets leading into 2010. Essentially the funds that are connected to goverment i.e sovereign funds will start to feel pressure since goverments and central banks have become pseudo leaders to decaying companies, all bond markets may show quality issues as a recovery (from 2007/2008 credit crunch) for many companies will be negligible.

Still anything connected (business) to goverment may have debt refinance issues, that is essentially a warning of the massive liabilities that have been absorbed by the public sector from the private sector.

In the meantime the Dow is still showing overall gains despite glitches such as Dubai ( 27th November 2009 154.48 sell off) and the recent sell off of 86.46 on the 3rd December 2009. There is still however a tight trading range with a main support at 9,741

Of course a concerning issue (if you own shares) is the American Express stock price which was hammered (3rd December 2009 sell) from 41.89 30th November 2009 now at 38.81. A good bellwether to the underlying issue with banks write-downs as US unemployment grows in 2010

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