Oil on a 25mth cyclical bull run. Update 6 - potential of 'mega' breakout looming

As discussed in Oil on a 25mth cyclical bull run. Update 5 - oil sits in static range with potential 'breakout', we got our breakout in October 2009 when oil reached high of $82.00 a barrel (WTI). This is from the September low of $65.00. There is a lot money going into oil on two main issues. 1. The global economy has stabilized 2. The US dollar is weak and oil, like like most commodities namely gold, is a hedge against a weakening dollar.

So the main driver of a high oil price is USD weakness, a mega spike in the oil price will be due to oil analysts shifting through a recent report that came in from a IEA whistle blower. This report was released on the 9 November 2009. It is an accepted aspect that the Saudis, US and UK have overestimate oil output for a long time. The reality is output is slowing quote rapidly (no new oil fields are coming on line). Of course governments do not like panic, since they have artificially propped up the global economy with stimulus, the reality is that the invertible (major oil decline) is on the cards.

Article found here re: IEA whistle blower The Guardian newspaper

In the meantime oil could spike into the high 80.00's on market driving the price high from the ex IEA employer reports. Regardless the price differentiates of the oil price to the supply out put (figures from officials) will always be a widening spread. As discussed the market knows oil is dwindling so there is potential for a 'mega' breakout in the coming months. If oil does spike, we could see other market jitters towards he end of the year. As a high oil price will dampening economic recovery, significantly.

Oil currently at 78.00

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