Monday, December 21, 2009

Copenhagen flop, oil and the global economic recovery

There is a saying, 'deal with reality or reality will deal with you'. We all knew that Copenhagen would be a flop as goverments have become short term populist originated and are generally paranoid about economic downturns. A deal to cut carbon emissions was destine to be a failure and it has been. As populist icons like Barack Obama solidify populist paranoia on carbon trading - they have essentially KO'ed the carbon trading market and renewable energy sector. Regardless what side of the argument you lie on, whether you believe that the human race is contributing to global warming, or that it is a freak of nature that is just happening regardless of the tons of carbon that we admit into the atmosphere. The climate is changing and according to climate scientists rapidly, but you can see and hear about this daily. A chunk of Antarctica melting, harsher winters and extreme summers.

But as the world is heating up rapidly in an economic sense - inflation. The US has became a monetarist monster that has flooded it's economy with cash it's deficits have grown and so have prices. The obscene consumer price equation that removes food and energy from the equation underplays the problems that the US and the world faces in the next 5 years. If we throw the climate change issue away from the time being, which is fine, governments are quite happy to gamble with time regarding climate change. A shit stream of crisis/s are lining up (don't worry climate change is sitting in there too). The one crisis that is the fascinating is the looming oil crisis, or peak oil. Since most ecomomies are not interesting in stimulating research and developing into new energy systems or alternative energy systems (Copenhagen failure will guarantee that renewable companies will now struggle against high carbon admitters i.e carbon will be cheap again, with no binding treaty of cutting carbon admissions). Why would you set up a windfarm when it is still cheaper to run a coal powered station? Renewable companies will not really be profitable or sustainable against older energy producers and by retrospect carbon polluters. In saying this with the global economy attempting to power ahead using older industry fuel/oil orientated industries undoubtedly oil will rise.

You would be better off investing in oil.

No comments:

Post a Comment