Sunday, November 8, 2009

Gold price breakout on a 'mini' crisis 2009 (update 3) - or just overbought?

The USD is not at critical stages as yet, so a USD collapse could be pending if the USD touches the 0.71 support. In the meantime the market knows that with 1.US unemployment coming in stronger at 10.2% (which is of course is under-read and unemployment is higher), 2. the Keynesian style stimulus program isn't working (i.e private sector is still shrinking) 3. Growing goverment deficits (adding the new Medicare and Medicaid programs) will blow out the deficits even more. 4. which means the Federal Reserve can only do two things 'print money' and keep interest rates at 0%. 5. This all equals inflation and with tax revenues (via government tax receipts collapsing) it will be a form of inflation that will accelerated with USD weakness. 6. Watch for a flop in US goverment bonds, which could come from oversupply.

The proof of inflationary conditions beginning in the US in the current gold price at 1100 (from trading range at 1090). Is gold near term overbought? Most probably, but supports are at 1028 and a possible trigger sell at 990

But with low volatility via the ATR shows an indication of a possible pullback of the Gold price, but also with low volatility it would also indicate that another upside breakout is possible.
May also indicate trading ranges are narrowing.


*morbius glass doesn't give investment advice, trade at your own risk

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