A clueless business reporter

This guy is a market optimist of the most irritating kind. I remember when the recession (global) was just about to hit. Even when global economy collapsed in 2008. Reporters like him were echoing government and central bank rhetoric that we would all avoid a recession because of China being a buffer. They were very, very wrong. I'll tell you, if this guy was a fund manager and I have gave him some money to invest in the markets inspired by that bizarre optimistic banter, not only would I lose my money; but he would reassure me that 'don't worry the government will insure the losses' and then quietly '... which you'll be covering later via higher taxes'

Even worst is the markets are now deemed too optimistic, which mans that a correction could sweep through them at some-point. It's just that we have absolute US dollar weakness, hence the drive in equity markets namely lead from Wall Street.

But this fucking guy knows nothing, re:Australia

• Australia's terms of trade have collapsed, meaning that credit to the country is out of whack to it's debits. In other words we owe more than what we earn.

• The Australian government is precariously trying to please everyone. Unemployment for October 2009 quarter up-ticked to 5.8% from 5.7% last quarter, but this information comes from government statistician body, which of course underplays unemployment by smoothing out numbers, namely overly countering in part-time and casual as employed. This is trying to balance confidence in the markets. But regardless unemployment is higher than what they (ABS) report. Why? The government is slamming down on skilled business visas, in other words the Australian job market is shrinking. This can also be seen in bad debt provision and bank-write downs that began this quarter. More notably the NAB, Westpac and ANZ write downs.

• Australian bonds like most government bonds will have quality issues. If Government is absorbing risk and it's income is shrinking from falling exports and tax receipts, why would I bother with government debt? As the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to increase rates because they know that stagflation is already occurring in the Australian economy. This of course effects the value of bonds. This will be another income shock for the Australian economy.

• So investors buy the Australian Dollar (I own calls on the AUD), this again effects the overall income of the Australian ecomomy as exports are too expensive.

• With large deficits close to 80billion and a deteriorated bond market, inflation and export problems. The Australian economy will struggle. But most people know this, hence a degree of liquidity tightening towards end of the year.

It's obvious certain reporters/commentators have some plays in the market, but they are terrible investors as they rely on delusion of constant gains. Remember this is what got us into the mess we are still in (belief that market never goes down); the market works in two directions positive and negative. Government intervention tries to maintain the positive but that is like trying to hold back the sea. It's impossible. So at some point it will term negative. If you don't realize these things 1. you shouldn't invest in the markets. 2 you shouldn't write shit like that guy does.

I am down with this philosophy: refer to blog post: Misplaced optimism is deadly - Alain de Botton

I am going to have a coffee now.