Is the US dollar a risk aversion 'buy' end 2009?

Below is one of my favorite US dollar graphs. As it reflects weakness against the gold price. This was followed in The US Dollar and Gold showing a reflected 'crossover' patten. (update 1).As discussed in those blog posts regarding the USD and Gold, the USD and Gold crossed over as both assets began to diverge from each other. The first time occurred (on a monthly graph) in August 2007 and again in March 2009. After Lehman collapsed in September 2008, the USD gained strength sharply from risk aversion, gold corrected and fell to 706 on 27 October 2008, but steadily maintained it's upward rise (currently at 1088). Primary due to USD weakness and a diversification out of USD and into gold and commodities.

If you look at the graph carefully you'll notice that the extreme lows for the USD occurred in March 2008 (0.71) then as mentioned, risk aversion sent the USD soaring.

So in summary, yes the USD could stabilize and show some sideways type recovery, but for the USD to really gain strength we need the following, a substantial trade war (some shots have been fired namely Obama's tariff on Chinese tire imports and of recently Australia's duty 16% on Chinese aluminum - after China began dumping Aluminum onto the Australian market. China and Australia are essentially already having a trade war re: BHP fiasco), a conflict, a major economic meltdown or other collapse (US bank of otherwise).

Considering the last quarter of 2009 could see some correction in stocks and USD buying. The USD is still in a decline and hasn't reached critical as yet (assuming 0.71 we be the 'crisis' point for the USD).