China property market a time bomb (update 1)

China is probably now at the critical stages on a housing bubble bursting. Rumored rate hikes and bank deposit ratio hikes for the 11th 12th December 2010

China Daily 9/12/2010

"BEIJING - China's top think tank has said that the country's real estate bubble has soared in urban areas, with the biggest gap between market price and actual value in Fuzhou, capital of East China's Fujian province.

The actual value of commercial housing in Fuzhou is only 3,998 yuan ($600) per square meter, while the market price is 13,457 yuan, according to a survey published in a report on the housing market in China (2010-2011) released by the Social Sciences Academic Press on Wednesday.

The survey, covering 35 large and middle cities, was conducted in September by the Institute of Finance and Trade Economics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).

In Fuzhou and six other cities, the bubble index is more than half of the market price, the survey found.

The bubble index was designed to take into account 11 sub-indexes, including public infrastructure and facilities, and average per capita disposable income.

First-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen are among 11 cities where bubble indexes account for 30 to 50 percent of the market price, it said. Eight cities have a bubble indexes from 10 to 30 percent, and the index in nine cities are below 10 percent."