Thursday, December 9, 2010

'Barclays Bank' says EUR will be bid in 2011 and Spain will be A OK

But it gets better as Barclays says Spain will NOT be the next problem for Europe and they have a super long term call (end yr!) on the EUR in 2011

Of course the EUR will be in a selling mode again and Spain is the NEXT major problem for Europe.

Below is a confused ambiguity of veiled panic via Barclays analysts

"NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The euro will fall to $1.28 over the next three months on sovereign debt concerns, but because Spain will not be the next domino to fall, the currency will then rebound, said Barclays Capital analysts Thursday. According to the bank's 2011 global economic outlook, the currency will rebound to $1.42 in a year's time. Helping support the euro, the zone's EUR750 billion emergency bailout fund is likely adequate and Spain--plagued by a troubled banking sector--will survive its fiscal convulsions without aid, they said. In a month's time, the euro is expected to be at $1.30, the bank said. In a survey published on Nov. 23 by Dow Jones Newswires, Barclays had forecast the euro at $1.37 at the end of December. Spain represents a game-changer to the euro zone and common currency if it should stumble, said Larry Kantor, head of research at Barclays Capital. "Spain would be another problem," altogether, compared with small economies of Ireland and Greece, and represents the biggest threat to the euro, he said. The euro traded at $1.32, down 0.2% Thursday, on reports the Irish opposition party would vote against the country's fiscal lifeline. The dollar will rise to Y89 in one year's time on the backs of rising short-term Treasury yields, the bank said. In a month's time, the dollar is expected to be at Y83, the bank said. In the survey published Nov. 23 by Dow Jones, Barclays had forecast the dollar at Y81 at the end of December. Japanese investors are much more skeptical of the U.S. recovery based on their own experiences with the onset of deflation, said Jeff Young, head of North American foreign exchange research at Barclays. Continued large purchasing of Treasurys by those investors will likely limit a recent rise in U.S. yields and the subsequent rise of the dollar against the yen, he said. The dollar traded at just under Y84, down 0.4% Thursday, on falling U.S. yields after a strong 30-year Treasury auction"

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