Thursday, December 16, 2010

China inflation blowout 2011 - Global economic collapse scenario

I read blogs that mention the current markets and their trading pattens, with lack off clear dissemination or correlation to fundamentals, technicals and so on. Manly from market distortion/s that resonate out of the US (via the Federal Reserve) and Europe (via the European Central Bank).

Asia of course has China, who are a class act at underplaying figures relating to inflation, and overplaying growth; a communistic throwback in media manipulation, but funny thing is though, you play the capital markets like a fool; you usually get fucked. This happed in the US/EU/UK 2007/2008 and is about to swing back a give the US economy another reality wakeup call. This time an inflation fuck over, with recessionary beat downs as the Federal Reserve assist in the structural decay of the American economy.

But in the meantime China is dancing with the inflation devil (in real-time). If China inflation blows out in 2011 and China goes into a 6-12mth market crash, it will send the global economy into a inflationary depression, but if if oil crashes to $30 a barrel it will be a straight out depression. Which will lead to a total and complete collapse of the US/UK/EU economies.

TODAYonline 16th Dec 2010 (Bloomberg reprint)

"There is a wide belief in China that real CPI inflation is higher than the data has indicated," said Mr Shen Jianguang, chief China economist at Mizuho Securities Asia in Hong Kong. "Low-income people feel strongly about it."

In total, 74 per cent of households considered prices too high, up 15.6 percentage points from the third quarter, the central bank said. Its fourth-quarter survey was of 20,000 households in 50 cities.

Premier Wen Jiabao's government pledged to do more to stabilise prices after an economic planning conference in Beijing that ended this Sunday."

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