Tuesday, January 26, 2010

A global economic recovery relying on China (stimulus) is frightening

This is the equation: weakened global growth that rebounded on stimulus more so Chinese stimulus. So China being the the infinite (aleph zero ) number in the sense China's growth cannot be measured properly, so the assumption is that China continues to grow as the global economy becomes static or has negligible growth. Of course the problem is in that equation it appears the infinite style growth (China) will lead to a massive collapse. Particularly in China's case as the the US economy (and rest of the global economy) needs to support Chinese growth (US consumes and China produces) and this is not happening. Instead China is both producing and consuming with out external trade benefits. So essentially the global GDP is being propped up by country that is severally becoming a mega bubble with a decaying economic situation attached (America).

So current market risk aversion is primary a fear that China's credit markets are collapsing. As discussed in Global liquidity tightening 2010, a tipping point could have been reached now; so the invertible crunch maybe on it's way.

No comments:

Post a Comment