Sunday, February 21, 2010

Prepare yourself (and your portfolio) for a coming debt crisis and a Chinese hard-landing (crash) 2010 - (update 1)

As discussed in A Chinese 'hardlanding' is on it's way - just a matter of when. Penciled in for 'mid yr'? , a substantial slowdown in the Chinese ecomomy may occur rapidly in 2010

And also a debt crisis, namley the sovereign debt defaults in Europe, lead by Greece

So MEC.Research will follow media reports and also look at impacts on various markets.

From Bloomberg, China bubble

"Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, says China is overdoing it. “It does not make sense for China to build more empty buildings and add to capacities in industries where you already have overcapacity,” Faber told Bloomberg Television on Feb. 11. “I think the Chinese economy will decelerate very substantially in 2010 and could even crash.”

Huaxi has an even more ambitious project coming up: a 6 billion yuan, 538-meter skyscraper that would today rank as the world’s second tallest. The only loftier building is the new Burj Khalifa in Dubai.

Dubai Times a Thousand

Such undertakings figured in warnings hedge fund manager Jim Chanos delivered in January that China is Dubai times a thousand. The costs of wasteful investments in empty offices and shopping malls and in underutilized infrastructure will weigh on China, Chanos, president of New York-based Kynikos Associates Ltd., said in a speech at the London School of Economics. “We may find that that’s what pops the Chinese bubble sooner rather than later.”

China has defied the global recession of the past two years and remained the fastest-growing major economy. Gross domestic product soared 10.7 percent in the fourth quarter. The government has provided 4 trillion yuan in stimulus spending and encouraged banks to lend a record 9.59 trillion yuan last year, trying to bridge the gap until demand for exports rebounds or domestic consumption takes off"

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