A Chinese 'hardlanding' is on it's way - just a matter of when. Penciled in for 'mid yr'?

It's on the cards. When? Maybe in the next 4-6mths in 2010; when inflation kicks into gear. Dismiss Chinese goverment CPI figures (fudged), good for FX trading (or nerve racking), but if you are going long with puts on risk currencies watch April/June 2010

Bloomberg Feb 11th 2010

"China’s Bubble ‘Worry’

Besides targeting slower credit growth, the government has this year ordered banks to set aside larger reserves and tightened home lending, while leaving interest rates unchanged.

Central bank adviser Fan Gang said Feb. 1 that asset price bubbles are the “real worry” for China’s economy. Bank of China Ltd., the nation’s third-largest lender by market value, said Feb. 3 that it had reduced discounts for some mortgages, citing rising property-market risks.

Gross domestic product expanded 10.7 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2007. Government economists warned last month that growth could accelerate to 16 percent this year unless stimulus measures were reined in.

“China’s economy still faces the risk of overheating if policy remains at current settings,” said Brian Jackson, an emerging-markets strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong. “We continue to expect a move towards tighter policy in the next few months.”

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