Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Australia unemployment figures comes in stronger than market consensus.

refer to ABS website for August 2009 unemployment

The Australian goverment is walking a precarious line with their goverment statistics on unemployment (they are massaging the figures as most goverments do). Still Australia is sliding into inflation and possibly stagflation re: export market downturn refer Australia - first developed nation showing hallmarks of stagflation. This will exacerbate into 2010 (export market pain) if Australia hits parity with the US dollar.

With the Australian goverment underwriting bank debt, Australian banks can hide (off the balance sheet) decaying debt away from the eyes of the market; but the banking sector should show weakness into 2010 as 'real' unemployment goes up and (commercial/residential defaults) plus rising interest rates (Reserve Bank/retail Banks) carve into the mortgage markets.

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