Will they get it? It's 50/50.
The Aussie dollar is going to hit parity (unless massive risk aversion kicks in) with the US dollar at some point in 2010 with or without the Reserve Bank of Australia adding 25 basis point to the cash rate (currently at 3.25%)
But banks and insurance companies must be holding long (and big) positions on the AUD; to get two reports in one day saying consumer confidence up from Westpac Bank and then QBE insurance report saying the house prices are about to explode.
Still with unemployment a lot higher ( including the underemployed/part time employment) than government statistics actually report and immigration being cut (subtly). A more realistic aspect is of a stagnated ecomomy after goverment stimulus wears off 2009/2010.
With broad USD weakness at this point long AUD bets are on.
A stagflation environment is very real for Australia hence the RBA tightening in October 2009
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