Thursday, August 13, 2009

The West is falling into a 'planned ecomomy'

If you even get a chance, read a book by the modern day industrialist Ricardo Semler called the 7 Day Weekend. In which he refers to his philosophy and business model that is the company Semco. A great insight into anarcho capitalist leanings regarding worker and management input to maintain innovation, creativity and profits.

It is a comprehensive yet easy read detailing Semler's perspective on management, corporations and capitalism. One aspect that he points out that should be noted in the book is the term mercenaries in business, he refers to MBA guys (and girls) that work for investments banks. Not that loyal, yet hired to reign in as much money as possible; until one of them gets busted for insider trading and the whole thing goes south. Remember this book was written prior to the so called Great Financial Crisis, or global recession of 2008 - 2009. Although Semler does explain the ramifications of the 'dot com bubble' and the Brazilian financial crisis of late 1990's and it's effect on his company Semco at the time. It is a observation of arrogance and growth in business that naturally gets cut down in a business/economic cycle. So the mercenary aspect is the driven desire to make profits for an institution, usually for an investment bank. He describes that the mercenary idealism is purely opportunistic and self interested driven - to an extreme point. That a bank that hires full teams of mercenary type employees that end up being the backbone of the company, may at one point reap massive profits, but also may send the company bankrupt by extreme risk taking. As we recently saw with the investment banks of Wall Street (prior to the US government giving them welfare). His opinion is although the mercenary profit driven and 'loyal to none' aspect can work, albeit as a small aspect of a company, it should not be the driving motivation of a company direction. It will eventually sink the company.

I have known people who have worked for investment bank/s, their loyalty is not essentially to the bank but for higher ground and greener pastures. I am also aware of the external scrutiny when a bank starts to take bigger risks (usually in a profit bubble) - and it's eventual collapse or liquidation. It is in it's self a senseless environment to work in, yet investment banks are needed in the markets to arbitrate mergers and acquisitions and support initial public offerings on the stock market.

A strange thing has occurred in our society and economy, which ever way you want to look at it what has occurred is historic. A centralized global boom with all economies booming at the same time, huge amounts of leverage and excess thrown into the system. Low interest rates in most developed countries and housing/construction booms in literally every country on the earth. Then comes the bust, synchronized bust as we all know instigated by by the collapse of the US housing market. Mix in the so called solution, which was at the time and calculated fiscal and monetary policies by every government on the planet by throwing money into their economies. An economic and social experiment that has the historic hallmarks of a potential and major problem/s, namely inflation and growing government deficits; which also includes the danger of reinforcing credit bubbles within aspects of a now planned economy.

As the government of the world have fallen into a planning economy regime, they have also attached themselves very closely to central banks, as the two are now working in tandem in favour of government expansion policy. We have seen this with the US Federal Reserve under Ben Bernanke. With recent stock market rallies and a rebound of stimulus backed industries and Wall Street returning to profit. A clear distinction has taken place, with the US government become more of a economic planning based governing body it also has protected the top tier investment banks of Wall Street. Who, as Semler wrote in his book, have a mercenary mentality to profiteering. That all said in done in a free market economy, if a company chooses to become a mercenary driven business, then when it goes bust it goes bust. It doesn't get bailed out by governments nor does it receive funding to maintain business practices. Instead the US government has propped up and allowed Wall Street speculation again, whilst at the same time planning the US economy with stimulus packages.

Not only is the US falling into a planned economy but so is the rest of the West, it is a distortion of economic and business cycles and innovation. To drive, as the US policy machine is doing, more credit growth on top of huge debt to GDP is a pending nightmare. With the money speculators being fed liquidity by the central banks and their governments.

So not only is this a paradox, but a contradiction. That being a socialist leaning economic policy while at the same time supporting upper levels of the finance industry.

We are all now forced to rely a Goverment gamble on the 'planned economy' theory (as fas as sustaining an economic recovery). But the odds look pretty terrible, especially with credit/debt expansion continuing and the ever growing goverment deficits. Also don't forget planning based economic models are historically disastrous.

Whatever the case, if a downside occurs (and we are talking a 'major' downside as opposed to the one we just had) we all will be left picking up the pieces again thanks to goverment intervention.

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