Oil on a 25mth cyclical bull run? Update 2 - Oil reaches $70.00 a barrel

As forecasted, I mentioned in Oil on a 25mth cyclical bull run? Update 1 that oil would either reach 70 dollars a barrel early June 2009 or in the week 15th-19th June 2009. Subsequently oil is now trading above $70.00 (9th and 10th June 2009).

Although the OBV is showing a divergence with some thin volumes trades on the higher oil price. This could indicate that a sell may occur from the 70 dollar mark. Also there is a flattening out on the monthly graph of the CCI (14) line. A sell on oil will cause the price to fall back into a month to month trading rage of 60 -69 (note on graph).

There are murmurs and speculation (note futures on US interest rates) that US rates could start to move upward; this could drain some volume out of the oil market to support the US dollar. Still supply/demand issues and continued USD weakness could draw a support on 70.00 into 2009.

(Please click on graph for larger image)



*morbius glass does not give investment advice. Trade at your own risk