Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Greek interest payments on bonds already increasing.

Via the 7 year note auctioned recently, from Bloomberg

"Greece’s seven-year notes fell yesterday on the first day of trading, with the yield rising to 6.078 percent from an issue yield of 6.001 percent."

The quality of Greek bonds are pretty shitty.


Monday, March 29, 2010

Oil up, nervous markets contiue

As discussed Liquidity rallies still persistent - Dow and Oil on a 25mth cyclical bull run. Update 7 - market uncertainty (Europe), China/US Trade War, stocks are still showing a rangy, sideways trading. More so because of investor nervousness re: huge debt problems in Europe, this uncertainty in investor sentiment also relates to yields increasing on the 10 and 30 yr US bonds; and the mass of debt that is flooding the markets. Note the recent Treasury auctions on the 25 March 2010 were disappointing, hence yields all spiking which included the 10 yr note. Further indication of an oversupply of debt.

The other news is oil moving upwards on weaker US dollar (this may be temporary) and on the news of an attack in a Moscow (Russia) subway by cowardly Chechen rebels. Any conflict/geo political/eternal or otherwise relating to oil producing countries will have an effect on the oil price.

I don't think we are going top see a week of 100 point + rallies on Western indices. As for Asia, well being cashed up creditors is fine having a huge property bubble in China is not fine. Any dramatic fluctuation to Asian indexes will be on liquidity tightening and/or property default issues coming through and Asian (China) bank write downs. This is all but a certainty

Sunday, March 28, 2010

MEC.RESEARCH mini reviews (update 4)


Now this is a good Blanco or white Tequila, it kills the Don Julio, with a cork top and a pleasant fresh smell once opened which are good signals. Overall I found that it had a fresh and very mild mint/sweet taste with the strong Agave flavours (that is what you want from a Blanco) and the tradmark heat. Very good and worth the $100+.

Thursday, March 25, 2010

US bond yields up, EUR down - eye on risk currencies such as the AUD

Oversupply and diminishing bond values with high yields will ensure that stocks and risk currencies will start to show further volatility.

The amount of debt both corporate and goverment coming onto the market should be a concern as financing through bond sales may be harder to obtain.

The EUR (Euro) has come under immense pressure form selling more so on the whole European situation rather than just Greece. The major concern is if the EU agrees to a bailout, then other countries in worst situations such as Spain start asking for EU intervention. The EUR currency should just about be killed.

Even on IMF intervention, would indicate to the market that an official 'bailout' has been requested outside from the EU. Either way a sell on the EUR will continue.

The EUR should continue it's fall to 20th April 2009 lows of 1.29.

Slightly oversold via the KC channel on 21 trading days a very slight rebound could occur.



In contrast to the EUR, the AUD is looking very overbought in rangy markets conditions, extremely vulnerable to USD, high US bond yields, China issues and EU issues; all will effect the AUD in a dramatic way. The AUD is currently a sell falling now into the middle channel of the KC channel and about to fall below the 50 day moving average (in blue). A low of 0.85 is very possible and a break below stops/supports could also occur. All depending on 'worst' news from the global ecomomy.

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

MEC.RESEARCH mini reviews (update 3)


Don Julio Tequila (Blanco). Terrible. For a medium tier Tequila to such a strong ethanol smell upon opening is a disgrace. The 1880 Blanco is far more superior Tequila over the Don Julio. In fact I would go as far as to say this is the worst Tequila (Blanco) I have sampled to date. Don't know how the fuck some of these reviews can say this, "Entry is sweet and floral, with messages of agave and lime. Agave expands only slightly in the body, and fade is rapid with mild bitterness and a pleasant alcohol tingle." from Tequila.net

Don Julio Blanco stinks like an alcohol based cleaner, it tries to be smooth, the Agave is there but barely, it tastes and smells like a cheap hook...alright you get the drift.

Monday, March 22, 2010

Stencil Art - Argentina (Buenos Aires)


from: http://www.cambsas.blogspot.com/ (all photo credit)

I am a big fan of street art, my brother was/is a famed graffiti artist of Melbourne (Australia) and I like stencil art. It all mergers together: graffiti, the modern, the decay and imprint of the ambiguous. There is something exciting and striking about an image that has been improvised (it's not supposed to be there) onto a building or structure, but it is now part of the building/structure. I like that.

Anyway there is a club in Buenos Ares I don't know the name but apparently it's facade is covered in stencil/graffiti art. You know the name? Send me an email

Above is a stencil art from the streets of Buenos Aires Argentina

Liquidity rallies still persistent - Dow

The term liquidity rally refers to the low (0-25%) interest rates in the US; with the Federal Reserve transfixed on over stimulating money markets will excess liquidity. So as some commentators have remarked on, excess liquidity + low to zero rates on cash means speculation comes to the forte within the stock market. Which proved correct in 2009 when November 2008 lows on the S&P 500 and March 2009 lows on the Dow reversed with the goverment stimulus, and the Federal Reserve/central banks low rate policy. Wall Street was know longer in recession.

At this point in 2010 the fundamentals on a global economic scale haven't improved all that much. As new economic problems have arisen, namely the massive debt loads accumulated by EU countries (PIIGS), credit problems (in relation to commercial/property loans) in China and a looming trade war with the US, in the background also lies inflationary conditions on food and oil.

So if we look at the Dow in February 2010 the index fell 9904 points (8th Feb 2010) and in the next 33 trading days (to the 22nd March 2010) the index has only be able to add 881 points, or an average on 26.69 points a day from the 8th Feb 2010 low.

The Dow was trading in a tight trading range, refer to graph, which it broke through on the downside on the 20th June 2010. The trading range was consistent with the inflows on capital (volume). Presently the Dow appears legless and rangy with persistent liquidity rallies, a major downside move looks eminent. I have heard traders say that a 10% increase in stock moves is possible as the indices have 'momentum', I think this is incorrect instead I would say 10% to 20% move on the downside is more likely. The recent rangy markets particularly with the Dow indicate a lot of investors have a degree of uncertainty and concern with fiscal and monetarily policy. The liquidity rallies of 2009 may be but all petering out.

Monday, March 15, 2010

MEC.RESEARCH mini reviews (update 2)


Crappy politicians and crappy celebrities = uninspiring and banal.

Mec.research store



Crossed #9
Garth Ennis who is one of the most prolific and intense comic book writers hits us with this depressive 'future'. Jacen Burrows emotive comic art is absolutely top notch. A twist on the zombie theme, but worst...



Averna (Appertiff)
Italian herbal alcoholic drunk pre dinner, hence the term Apertiff. It's is sweet, tasty and alcoholic. Good with pasta (obviously), dips/breads/biscuits.



Patron Reposado (Tequila)
Excellent tequila, it's got some hype but it isn't cheap. Very good, smooth with a full flavour. Hand made glass decanter.


1880 Blanco (Tequila)
Not bad, slight sweetness the Agave taste is there. No complaints. Good to have in your bar selection to compare against other Blanco's.

Oil on a 25mth cyclical bull run. Update 7 - market uncertainty (Europe), China/US Trade War

In my opinion the current oil price is reflective of the uncertainty n the Europe Union, the Euro and the massive problems around the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) which should also include the UK. These are fiscal problems attributed by large deficits and the possibility of defaults or partial defaults on sovereign debt.

Also contributing to upward trend on the oil price is the looming trade war (a three way) with China and possibly Brazil/South America against the US. Which is also a precursor for the oil price to incline. Enough shots have been fired, note Obama tariffs on imported Chinese tires, China steadfast on a devalued Yuan and Brazil with it's applying for intellectually property rights on imported US cotton.

Oil is trading in a range now, with some volume declines and a divergence with the OBV indicator, if we see risk aversion rise from both the EU and the China/US trade/currency disputes oil should break out on the topside. Range 80-85, finding support at 80

Exclusive furniture is hard to order (internationally)

I really like designer furniture and aspects of it's exclusivity. But maybe it's too exclusive and expensive for it's own good. Trying to order some of this 'expensive' furniture is problematic. Most stores are US based with third party ordering companies, quite bizarre actually with third party included costs on top of the shop of origin costs. For me (using the third party shipping service as an example) some of these furniture companies are not very good businesses especially at a time when the US is facing a terrible recession. Which in all retrospect will become worst (you can thank Obama's rapid fire spending for consumption i.e massive deficits, high taxes and eventual inflation). You would think that some of these exclusive furniture companies would open up their market to resell back internationally (yes they are importers to the US, but Asian markets would still buy), they don't. Saks 5th avenue set up an international order services last year which was a great idea and a handful of others have also done the same.

So in summary the artists, designers and shops that make some of this furniture are daggy motherfuckers, business sense is probably quite crappy; yet they make and some cool stuff, a piece here and there that might make your home/unit look interesting. But try ordering this 'exclusive' furniture and the ordering process kills your motivation (well at least mine, it aint cheap!). It makes me makes think they live in a exclusive (design) bubble that makes no business sense.

I hope Amazon (a good company) wipes these complacent shit dumps of fucking businesses off the planet and some kid picks up a Moroso chair (for $100.00) from the fire-sales.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Prepare yourself (and your portfolio) for a coming debt crisis and a Chinese hard-landing (crash) 2010 - (update 4)

The Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) will hike rates very soon with China's CPI at 2.7% overshadowing the markets 2.3%. A hike by the PBOC should take the global equities markets by surprise, as I don't think it has been factored in that inflation in China could be becoming out of control with overcapacity in most manufacturing markets (more so property).

An 'honest' goverment number (as opposed to China's GDP numbers) such as China's CPI would indicate that a rate hike is almost a certainty. from WSJ online

" BEIJING (Dow Jones)--China's consumer price index in February rose 2.7% from a year earlier, quickening from January's 1.5% rise, government data showed Thursday.

The rise rise was higher than the median forecast of a 2.4% rise in a Dow Jones Newswires poll of 11 economists.

The producer price index, a gauge of ex-factory prices, rose 5.4% in February from a year earlier, higher than 4.3% in January and higher than the poll's median forecast of a 5.0% rise.

The CPI in the first two months of the year rose 2.1% from a year earlier, faster than December's 1.9% rise, the data showed.

The CPI data for January-February strips out the impact of the weeklong Chinese New Year holiday, when consumer prices often rise. The break fell in February this year, but in January last year
."

The Producers (1968) - Audition scene



A hippie by the name of LSD with a Any Warhol 'soup can' necklace auditions for the part as Hitler.
From the Mel Brooks movie "The Producers" (1968)

"that's my Hitler!"

I laughed so much I nearly had a heart attack.

Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Gold is still solid - a buy on IMF intervention (Europe)

An interesting current psychology of the markets is the risk averse plays are still holding ground, such as the US dollar and gold. Greece is but the tip of the iceberg of European problems with sovereign debt as discussed in Don't dismiss 'Gold' the crisis hedge just yet- 2010 and Prepare yourself (and your portfolio) for a coming debt crisis and a Chinese hard-landing (crash) 2010 - (update 3) Spain would be more of a shock to the markets when the news starts to filter through about it's deficit problems. The UK is of course a major market worry hence the selling of the pound lately. So generally the EU is in a lot of problems, benign growth and debt issues make the Euro currency attractive to short sell and also the UK pound; a full blown currency crisis in the EU may be on the cards in 2010/11.

If IMF intervention is to bail out the larger economies such as Spain and possibly the UK at some point (relying on Germany/France to handle Greece), not only will gold inevitably becomes a hedge against falling currencies, but also a hedge against a full blown fiscal crisis in Europe.

*Note: the short term break out at 1062, gold may show overbought signals moving up towards the outer bollinger band. But, if we can a good dose of 'bad' news over Europe, gold hold above the 1060 resistance and possible hold.

Current 1137. Below graph is daily



* MEC.research doesn't give investment advice, trade at your own risk

Metal Magazine #19 is out


Go check it...

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Stay strong...



please.