Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Prepare yourself (and your portfolio) for a coming debt crisis and a Chinese hard-landing (crash) 2010 - (update 4)

The Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) will hike rates very soon with China's CPI at 2.7% overshadowing the markets 2.3%. A hike by the PBOC should take the global equities markets by surprise, as I don't think it has been factored in that inflation in China could be becoming out of control with overcapacity in most manufacturing markets (more so property).

An 'honest' goverment number (as opposed to China's GDP numbers) such as China's CPI would indicate that a rate hike is almost a certainty. from WSJ online

" BEIJING (Dow Jones)--China's consumer price index in February rose 2.7% from a year earlier, quickening from January's 1.5% rise, government data showed Thursday.

The rise rise was higher than the median forecast of a 2.4% rise in a Dow Jones Newswires poll of 11 economists.

The producer price index, a gauge of ex-factory prices, rose 5.4% in February from a year earlier, higher than 4.3% in January and higher than the poll's median forecast of a 5.0% rise.

The CPI in the first two months of the year rose 2.1% from a year earlier, faster than December's 1.9% rise, the data showed.

The CPI data for January-February strips out the impact of the weeklong Chinese New Year holiday, when consumer prices often rise. The break fell in February this year, but in January last year
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