Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Dow sell points June 2010

As discussed in Markets are stabilizing into a volatile trading range - downside pressure mounting, we try and estimate the range trade days against volume (thinning out) and also against the On Balance Volume indicator and Money Flow Indicator. This was seen on the 16th April 2010 to the 26th April 2010 when the Dow traded in a range with downside pressure and began selling on the 26th April 2010. The similar range trade on the Dow started on the 15th June 2010 and ended on the 21st June 2010, as the previous posted indicated a sell using the 10 days (as a averaged based period of range trading) via diminished volumes, divergence in volume indicators such as the OBV and MFI; so therefor the major pressure sells started on the 24th/25th June 2010.

So the warning signs were there refer to the last range trade points (blue and red vertical lines) of the 10 days (16th/26th April 2010), the overall indication is that when the Dow (and other indices) trade in a range, selling pressure occurs with a 7-10 day period (analyzing volume increases and deceases and using money flow and divergence indicators). What also shows is that markets are trading in a downward trend which may indicate that we have a slow burn corrective pressure which, at times, is exacerbated by sudden economic/financial shocks (such as the sell on the 29th June 2010).

Please refer to chart:

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