Monday, April 19, 2010

The Dow - a sucker rally after Friday 16th April 2010 sell off

We should be careful here using the term sucker rally only because it was used when equity markets rallied like no tomorrow after the march 2008 and Nov 2009 lows were reached. But those rallies were on the back of massive central bank and goverment monetary stimulus. Which has been argued actually went straight into stocks (Wall Street) and market speculation (as interest rates discouraged saving). But it didn't go into everyday consumers as US employment rates indicate that the US stimulus was a flop.

But the Obama administration with it's individual goverment departments, that being the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) decided to press with fraud charges against Goldman Sachs, more particularly the Goldman Sachs CDO (collateralized debt obligations) fund. The SEC investigation found that the manager of the Goldman Sachs hedge fund would pick decayed mortgage baked securities (that were inserted into CDO's) sell them to clueless clients, then short sell the market or products he sold - thus making money on products he knew were rubbish. The Dow, with the S&P 500 reacted accordingly as discussed in Rangy markets persist - Dow claws to 11000 support, the Dow has been showing nervous and rangy behavior since it fell out of it's trading range on the 20th Jan 2010. A sudden panic sell is to be expected, and we got one on the 16th April 2010; this sell as discussed was brought on by the fraud charge via the SEC aimed at Goldman Sachs. The market reaction was more driven on market fear, rather than Goldman Sachs fate (which won't be anything significant), that a correction in stock markets is well overdue since the 2008/2009 rallies.

The recent relief rally is more like a sucker rally has trading in the Dow becomes thinner and the fundamentals still don't justify large rallies. So you could argue that the sell on the 16th April 2010 was a warning shot to markets, that within the next 3 months a major correction will occur.

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