Sunday, May 3, 2009

World Crisis scenarios for the 21st century - Bird Flu (H5N1) and other pandemic Virus concerns (update 10 )

There has been a lot of confusion, misinformation and questions surrounding the influenza A virus subtype H1N1 or as it is incorrectly named in media reports as the 'Swine Flu', below is some bullet points from my current understanding of the influenza out break

World Crisis scenarios for the 21st century - Bird Flu (H5N1) and other pandemic Virus concerns (update 10 )
  • The influenza A virus H1h1 does not come from pigs, in fact there is no evidence at this point to suggest that a direct link from pigs to human occurred. The Swine Flu is a disease that is transmitted from pigs to human. This new influenza is a mixture of various other influenza strains or DNA, that has become a new influenza. However the A H1h1 virus can be transmitted to animals. This will ensure that the virus collects other strains of influenza as it moves out animals back to humans. But as mentioned, this particular strain did not originate from pigs.
  • This new strain on influenza has never been seen before, it appears to have gathered various other influenza strains in it's present state. A vaccine is apparently months off. The Southern Hemisphere is now passing into the Flu cycle, the big fear is as the A H1h1 passes through the Southern Hemisphere it will pick up virulence (collecting other flu strains and mutating) as the Northern Hemisphere goes into it Flu season, from September 2009 into the colder months of 2010. At that point A H1h1 could become a real killer.
  • This new influenza strain seems to effect younger people with healthy immune systems, scientist's are perplexed at this, although there is a theory that older people may be somwhat immune to older strains in the A H1h1 genetic makeup, an early Avian strain from the 1950's, or a Swine Flu af 1920. This could deliver a degree of immunity to the older generation. Younger people may be hit with a cocktail of unknown (for their immune system) influenza strains.

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