World Crisis scenarios for the 21st century - Bird Flu (H5N1) and other pandemic Virus concerns (update 7)

World Crisis scenarios for the 21st century - Bird Flu (H5N1) and other pandemic Virus concerns (update 7)

Has Swine Virus death toll been exaggerated? Recently the WHO have come out and down played the 150+ Mexican death toll, saying only 7 people have died in Mexico. Are the WHO been overly technical about the death toll? To play down panic? In the sense, that deaths directly from Swine Flu is at 7 (according to the WHO), yet possible related deaths or complcaitions from the Swine Flu virus could be 150+ in Mexico. The Mexican authorities claim that 26 (within the 159 reported deaths) of those cases are directly related to swine flu. Why would the Mexican authorities play up the death toll? Makes no sense.

Still it was the WHO that have increased the pandemic alert stage to 4, if they are trying to play down panic, it's hard to say what their angle is; markets will correct with a reversal in risk aversion (stocks, FX etc). But on the whole what is the serious of this Swine flu is could be a rapidly evolving virus, it still may shut down large elements of economic recovery.