The AUD is becoming extremely overbought. (update 1)

Huge long position/s set on the AUD held mostly by banks. Despite the fact the AUD now is overbought and expensive with *puts on downside protection being cheaper. Price Channels show that the AUD is now very overstretched. The rally now looks like topping out.

*Market rumour that there are 'large' Double No-Touch options @ 0.95 and 0.85. Probably hedge funds. Banks will just cut a massive long.

And you can't beat this double top forming (chart below). With extreme risk on/off every 24hrs. Any panic sell will be significant.

refer:

Commodity backed currencies will come under pressure.

Protectionist style currency devaluing will start too occur throughout 2009. Lead by the commodity producing countries as their exports continue to shrink. Currencies to watch will be the Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Argentinian Peso and the Brazilian Real

US Dollar/Brazilian Real, US Dollar/Canadian Dollar - weekly graph. With both currencies selling against the USD, especially the CAD (note also the CCI's indicating a decline in the USD):

US dollar/ Argentinian Peso, Australian Dollar/US dollar - weekly graph. Note the rapid buy on the USD over the ARS, also the decline of the AUD against the USD. The ATR indicator on a 14day range is indicating decline on the AUD: