Commodity producing countries under pressure (political/economic - Australia) - Australian taxpayer libilties increase (update 14)

As the Australian Treasury backs a further residential mortgage backed security (RMBS) 'securitization market' that is already at $16billion AUD (which is close to the Australian military budget), it also now wants expand into 'covered bonds' released onto the market via smaller lenders. The catch? The goverment (taxpayer) will underwrite the deposits connected to the covered bonds, in which the taxpayer funded monster Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) has been hemorrhaging since 2008.

The problem? The market will eat this (insanity from the Australian goverment) alive, as the whole thing will be interpreted as a goverment fear of a housing bubble/crash. Watch Australian bond yields go into hyper space as Australian borrowing costs blowout.

If China pops the commodity bubble in 2011, Australia's income dependency will dissipate and you might as well connect Australia to the EU debt problem, say similarity being Spain (housing bubble/bust, banks, trillion dollar economy etc)

"SINGAPORE, Dec 13 (IFR) - Australia’s Treasurer Wayne Swan yesterday (December 12) announced a series of bank reforms including introduction of covered bonds and setting aside another AUD4bn (USD3.9bn) to support the RMBS market.
The measures were issued under the the government’s Competitive and Sustainable Banking System reforms. Draft amendments in the Banking Act to allow issuance of covered bonds in Australia will be released when the Parliament first reconvenes next year.

As a three-pronged strategy, the government has allowed all banks, credit unions and building societies to issue covered bonds, a move that will help these borrowers access cheaper and long term stable funding. Covered bonds are backed by assets which can be enforced upon at the occurrence of a default. They therefore are priced at lower interest rates compared to plain vanilla bonds.

Under the proposal, each covered bond issuer may have a limit or cap assigned. For instance, an issuer may be allowed to issue covered bonds up to 5% of its total Australian assets.

The government also plans to deepen the corporate bond market by launching the trading of government bonds on exchanges.

Meanwhile, the government extended by a further AUD4bn the support programme to the RMBS market. The government has already provided AUD16bn to the Australian Office of Financial Management to invest in the Triple A rated RMBS tranches. The fund was created in early 2008 at an initial size of AUD8bn, and a year later, doubled to help the securitization industry, which has suffered a hit by the global financial crisis. So far, about AUD15bn is believed to be fully invested in the market, while the remaining will be invested by early 2011.

Significantly, the government has also emphasised on the development of special “bullet” bonds for smaller lenders to help diversify their funding. Last week, regional lender Bendigo and Adelaide Bank issued an AUD1bn RMBS, which had little over 50% of the deal in bullet notes. This was the second deal in the year which had fixed rate notes."

Australia Office of Financial Management back stopping the Aust housing loan market at 16billion (taxpayer funded)

As followed in the posts Time to 'short' Australia's housing bubble we discovered that the AOFM or Australian Office of Financial Management are using 16billion dollars (AUD) taxpayer backstops to fund smaller/mid level lenders. On top of an already housing mega bubble in Australia, the AOFM have already posted losses, when the Australian property market starts to turn down (and it appears to be on the way for a huge price slide) the RMBS losses should be eye bleeding

An RMBS dump and pump onto a government balance sheet list as follows:

"AOFM PURCHASES OF RMBS"

"Pricing Date" "Settlement Date" Issuer "Issue Name" Tranche "Expected WAL at closing (years)" "Coupon
(per cent)" "Original Face Value ($m)"
2008/11/14 2008/11/21 FirstMac "FirstMac Mortgage Funding Trust Series 2-2008" "Class A1" 0.7 "1M BBSW + 1.25%" 132
2008/11/14 2008/11/21 FirstMac "FirstMac Mortgage Funding Trust Series 2-2008" "Class A2" 3.5 "1M BBSW + 1.50%" 325
2008/11/14 2008/11/21 FirstMac "FirstMac Mortgage Funding Trust Series 2-2008" "Class AB" 5 "1M BBSW + 1.80%" 39
2008/11/17 2008/12/09 "Members' Equity Bank" "SMHL Securitisation Fund 2008-2" "Class A1" 2.8 "1M BBSW + 1.30%" 500
2008/12/04 2008/12/12 Challenger "Challenger Millennium Series 2008-2 Trust" "Class A" 2.8 "1M BBSW + 1.35%" 481
2008/12/04 2008/12/12 Challenger "Challenger Millennium Series 2008-2 Trust" "Class AB" 4.5 "1M BBSW + 1.75%" 19
2008/12/10 2008/12/15 RESIMAC "RESIMAC Premier Series 2008-1" "Class A2" 1.5 "1M BBSW + 1.20%" 280
2008/12/10 2008/12/15 RESIMAC "RESIMAC Premier Series 2008-1" "Class A3" 4.5 "1M BBSW + 1.40%" 204.75
2008/12/10 2008/12/15 RESIMAC "RESIMAC Premier Series 2008-1" "Class AB" 4.5 "1M BBSW + 1.70%" 15.25
2009/03/06 2009/03/26 CUA "Series 2009-1 Harvey Trust" "Class A1" 3.6 "1M BBSW + 1.40%" 350
2009/03/13 2009/03/18 "Bendigo and Adelaide Bank" "TORRENS Series 2009-1 Trust" "Class A2" 4.2 "1M BBSW + 1.35%" 475
2009/03/23 2009/03/30 "AMP Bank" "Progress 2009-1 Trust" "Class A2" 4 "1M BBSW + 1.30%" 425
2009/04/03 2009/04/21 "Bank of Queensland" "Series 2009-1 REDS Trust" "Class A1" 4.2 "1M BBSW + 1.30%" 500
2009/04/09 2009/04/20 "Liberty Financial" "Liberty Prime Series 2009-1" "Class A1" 0.1 "1M BBSW + 0.90%" 14.5
2009/04/09 2009/04/20 "Liberty Financial" "Liberty Prime Series 2009-1" "Class A2" 0.9 "1M BBSW + 1.20%" 164.7
2009/04/09 2009/04/20 "Liberty Financial" "Liberty Prime Series 2009-1" "Class A3" 3.2 "1M BBSW + 1.40%" 283
2009/04/09 2009/04/20 "Liberty Financial" "Liberty Prime Series 2009-1" "Class AB" 4 "1M BBSW + 1.65%" 37.8
2009/04/15 2009/04/24 Challenger "Challenger Millennium Series 2009-1 Trust" "Class A2" 0.5 "1M BBSW + 1.00%" 38.2
2009/04/15 2009/04/24 Challenger "Challenger Millennium Series 2009-1 Trust" "Class A3" 1.5 "1M BBSW + 1.30%" 152.5
2009/04/15 2009/04/24 Challenger "Challenger Millennium Series 2009-1 Trust" "Class A4" 4.3 "1M BBSW + 1.45%" 289
2009/04/15 2009/04/24 Challenger "Challenger Millennium Series 2009-1 Trust" "Class AB" 4.4 "1M BBSW + 1.70%" 20.3
2009/05/11 2009/05/14 "Members' Equity Bank" "SMHL Securitisation Fund 2009-1" "Class A2" 3.7 "1M BBSW + 1.35%" 500
2009/05/21 2009/05/28 RESIMAC "RESIMAC Premier Series 2009-1" "Class A2" 0.5 "1M BBSW + 1.00%" 10
2009/05/21 2009/05/28 RESIMAC "RESIMAC Premier Series 2009-1" "Class A3" 2.9 "1M BBSW + 1.40%" 435
2009/05/21 2009/05/28 RESIMAC "RESIMAC Premier Series 2009-1" "Class AB" 4.1 "1M BBSW + 1.70%" 13.8
2009/06/01 2009/06/05 FirstMac "FirstMac Mortgage Funding Trust Series 1-2009" "Class A3" 2.9 "1M BBSW + 1.40%" 458
2009/06/01 2009/06/05 FirstMac "FirstMac Mortgage Funding Trust Series 1-2009" "Class AB" 5 "1M BBSW + 2.20%" 40.62
2009/07/09 2009/07/16 "Wide Bay Australia" "WB Trust 2009-1" "Class A1" 0.5 "1M BBSW + 1.10%" 16
2009/07/09 2009/07/16 "Wide Bay Australia" "WB Trust 2009-1" "Class A2" 3.5 "1M BBSW + 1.40%" 282.5
2009/07/09 2009/07/16 "Wide Bay Australia" "WB Trust 2009-1" "Class AB" 5.4 "1M BBSW + 1.60%" 1
2009/07/14 2009/07/28 "Australian Central Credit Union" "Light Trust No. 2" "Class A1" 4 "1M BBSW + 1.30%" 190
2009/08/20 2009/09/04 "Suncorp Metway" "APOLLO Series 2009-1 Trust" "Class A3" 3.6 "1M BBSW + 1.30%" 499.2
2009/08/28 2009/09/11 "Greater Building Society" "GBS Receivables Trust No. 4" "Class A1" 4.3 "1M BBSW + 1.35%" 190
2009/10/14 2009/10/21 "Liberty Financial" "Liberty Prime Series 2009-2" "Class A2" 1.04 "1M BBSW + 0.90%" 35
2009/10/14 2009/10/21 "Liberty Financial" "Liberty Prime Series 2009-2" "Class A3" 3.34 "1M BBSW + 1.40%" 58.5
2009/10/14 2009/10/21 "Liberty Financial" "Liberty Prime Series 2009-2" "Class AB" 3.97 "1M BBSW + 1.65%" 6.3
2009/10/21 2009/10/28 RESIMAC "RESIMAC Premier Series 2009-2" "Class A2" 3.3 "1M BBSW + 1.40%" 38.1
2009/10/21 2009/10/28 RESIMAC "RESIMAC Premier Series 2009-2" "Class AB" 3.5 "1M BBSW + 1.95%" 18.3
2009/11/10 2009/11/24 FirstMac "FirstMac Mortgage Funding Trust Series 2-2009" "Class A2" 3.5 "1M BBSW + 1.40%" 195.4
2009/11/10 2009/11/24 FirstMac "FirstMac Mortgage Funding Trust Series 2-2009" "Class AB" 5 "1M BBSW + 1.95%" 19.74
2010/01/22 2010/01/29 "AMP Bank" "Progress 2010-1 Trust" "Class AB" 5.2 "1M BBSW + 1.80%" 36
2010/02/09 2010/02/17 "Bank of Queensland" "Series 2010-1 REDS Trust" "Class A" 3.1 "1M BBSW + 1.30%" 250
2010/02/25 2010/03/10 CUA "Series 2010-1 Harvey Trust" "Class A1" 2.9 "1M BBSW + 1.35%" 143
2010/03/05 2010/03/15 "Members' Equity Bank" "SMHL Securitisation Fund 2010-1" "Class A" 2.6 "1M BBSW + 1.35%" 250
2010/03/17 2010/03/24 "Bendigo and Adelaide Bank" "TORRENS Series 2010-1 Trust" "Class A" 2.8 "1M BBSW + 1.35%" 123
2010/03/26 2010/03/31 IMB "Illawarra Series 2010-1 RMBS Trust" "Class A" 3 "1M BBSW + 1.35%" 157.5
2010/05/12 2010/05/17 RESIMAC "RESIMAC Premier Series 2010-1" "Class A" 2.4 "1M BBSW + 1.65%" 10
2010/05/28 2010/06/09 "Suncorp Metway" "APOLLO Series 2010-1 Trust" "Class A2" 6 "1M BBSW + 1.10%" 300
2010/07/02 2010/07/14 "Members' Equity Bank" "SMHL Securitisation Fund 2010-2E" "Class A3" 5.7 "1M BBSW + 1.10%" 250
2010/07/08 2010/07/20 "Bendigo and Adelaide Bank" "TORRENS Series 2010-2 Trust" "Class A3" 3 "1M BBSW + 1.10%" 19.5
2010/07/08 2010/07/20 "Bendigo and Adelaide Bank" "TORRENS Series 2010-2 Trust" "Class A4" 5.8 "1M BBSW + 1.10%" 476.5
2010/07/23 2010/08/04 "MyState Financial" "ConQuest 2010-2 Trust" "Class A2" 1.5 "1M BBSW + 1.40%" 20
2010/07/23 2010/08/04 "MyState Financial" "ConQuest 2010-2 Trust" "Class A3" 5 "1M BBSW + 1.30%" 139.25
2010/07/23 2010/08/04 "MyState Financial" "ConQuest 2010-2 Trust" "Class AB" 3.7 "1M BBSW + 1.85%" 10.75
2010/08/11 2010/08/18 "Liberty Financial" "Liberty Prime Series 2010-1" "Class A2" 3.3 "1M BBSW + 1.25%" 90
2010/08/11 2010/08/18 "Liberty Financial" "Liberty Prime Series 2010-1" "Class AB" 4 "1M BBSW + 1.65%" 10.4
2010/08/18 2010/08/27 "Bank of Queensland" "Series 2010-2 REDS Trust" "Class A2" 6.2 "1M BBSW + 1.10%" 497.6
2010/08/26 2010/09/02 "Macquarie Bank" "PUMA Masterfund P-16" "Class A3" 6.3 "1M BBSW + 1.15%" 247.5
2010/09/06 2010/09/09 FirstMac "FirstMac Mortgage Funding Trust Series 1-2010" "Class A3" 4.7 "1M BBSW + 1.30%" 164
2010/09/06 2010/09/09 FirstMac "FirstMac Mortgage Funding Trust Series 1-2010" "Class AB" 3.6 "1M BBSW + 2.20%" 26.77
2010/09/23 2010/09/28 "Members' Equity Bank" "SMHL Securitisation Fund 2010-3" "Class A2" 6.1 "1M BBSW + 1.10%" 290
2010/10/14 2010/10/20 "ING Bank (Australia)" "IDOL Trust Series 2010-1" "Class A2" 7.5 "1M BBSW + 1.10%" 250
2010/11/10 2010/11/18 "Australian Central Credit Union" "Light Trust No. 3" "Class A3" 5.4 "1M BBSW + 1.20%" 243.5
11758.73

`
"ISSUES SUPPORTED BY THE AOFM"

"These are transactions supported by the AOFM under Operational Notices 25/2009 and 26/2009"

Date Issuer Arranger "Issue Name"
2010/01/15 "AMP Bank" "Westpac and Deutsche Bank" "Progress 2010-1 Trust"
2010/01/29 "Bank of Queensland" "Deutsche Bank" "Series 2010-1 REDS Trust"
2010/02/22 CUA Westpac "Series 2010-1 Harvey Trust"
2010/03/03 "ME Bank" Westpac "SMHL Securitisation Fund 2010-1*"
2010/03/10 "Bendigo and Adelaide Bank" "Deutsche Bank" "TORRENS Series 2010-1 Trust"
2010/03/22 IMB Westpac "Illawarra Series 2010-1 RMBS Trust"
2010/05/05 RESIMAC NAB "RESIMAC Premier Series 2010-1*"
2010/05/25 "Suncorp Bank" "Suncorp Bank" "APOLLO Series 2010-1 Trust"
2010/06/28 "ME Bank" NAB "SMHL Securitisation Fund 2010-2E*"
2010/07/06 "Bendigo and Adelaide Bank" NAB "TORRENS Series 2010-2 Trust"
2010/07/23 "MyState Financial" Westpac "ConQuest 2010-2 Trust"
2010/08/04 "Liberty Financial" "Deutsche Bank" "Liberty Prime Series 2010-1"
2010/08/16 "Bank of Queensland" NAB "Series 2010-2 REDS Trust"
2010/08/19 "Macquarie Bank" "Macquarie Bank" "PUMA Masterfund P-16"
2010/09/06 FirstMac NAB "FirstMac Mortgage Funding Trust Series 1-2010*"
2010/09/16 "ME Bank" "Deutsche Bank" "SMHL Securitisation Fund 2010-3"
2010/10/07 "ING Bank (Australia)" "Macquarie Bank" "IDOL Trust Series 2010-1"
2010/11/04 ACCU NAB "Light Trust No. 3"


from the Australian office of Financial Management

Bubblepedia (Australian website tracking the housing bubble)

*sorry for the long post, for Aust readers.

Time to 'short' Australia's housing bubble (update 5). Australian banks funding blowouts due re: precurser when Spain's property market went bust.

Yes, Australia has a resource boom which fuels China's boom. Funny thing is though Australia also has a debt boom, or bubble (which of course doesn't dwarf China credit bubble). But mining hasn't been able to offset Australia's dependency on a consumer debt binge and very few Australia's are receiving the benefit of a mining boom. Apart from Australia maintain a AAA rating, with the ability for the Australian government to raise capital in the debt markets. It also must be noted that with oversupplied bond markets a premium yield is being paid for AUD bonds. Much like Spain, in fact a lot like Spain (and Spain is almost bankrupt without ECB help). Both Spain and Australia have (or had: Spain property/economy went bust in 2010 re: PIIGS) housing bubbles note graph below with Australia's and Spain's housing markets.



Australia's major lender CBA is now showing the hallmarks of a funding blowout, as interest rates on debt/bonds turn upward, value turns down hence the possibility that bond holders of Australian bank debt may ask for a higher premium on the yield. Mix this with possible bank 'off the balance sheet' losses on MBS's (mortgage backed securities) and CMBS (commercial mortgage back securities), business bankruptcy and lending slowdown; and we have a problem brewing in Australia banks, as funding costs are then passed onto the the borrower exasperating a bust scenario (housing/businesses).

The realty of Australian banks, particularly CBA, is what Spanish banks endured prior and after to the Spanish housing market imploding in 2008/2009.

A funding blowout.

And then eventually: (WSJ 26 Oct 2010)

"Spain's banks are selling valuable branches and seeking government help to find renters for foreclosed homes as they try to prop up their bottom lines amid continuing trauma in their deteriorating loan portfolios and other problems.

With profit margins tumbling, Spanish banks of all sizes—from big Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA to smaller regional savings banks known as cajas—are taking such steps as they feel a squeeze from high funding costs and other ills.

Among the top tactics they are using is the sale and leaseback of bank branches, allowing them to book a quick gain on the transaction, which can be used to absorb losses. In addition, the banks are fighting fiercely for deposits, with some banks, such as Banco Popular Español, recently offering a one-year interest rate of 4.5%.

Time to 'short' Australia's housing bubble (update 4). Banks facing funding shitstorm, oversupplied bond markets and interest rates spiking.

Australian banks have funding issues. They have had since the 2008 credit crisis it was backstopped by the government underwriting bank debt and guaranteeing deposits and RBA creating liquidity for the banks via purchasing commercial mortgage back securities and mortgage bank securities, this won't go on forever, especially when LTR write-downs (property: commercial/residential) are probably going to occur rapidly into the tail end of 2010. Meanwhile the banks are hedging on parity via AUD/USD and passed on interest rates, they (banks) are taking two market bets on their bullish 'predictions'.

Of course fatal bet/s.

Especially when global bond markets are oversupplied with yield demand competing with real rates. In other-words, interest rates will hit the credit markets in full effect thus effecting high interest rate mortgages, thus effecting mortgage repayments.

WSJ

"SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Australia's banks are appearing increasingly likely to make the unpopular decision of hiking interest rates on their loans to customers out-of-step with any movements in the country's official cash rate to claw back higher funding costs.

Australian banks rely heavily on retail deposits and offshore inter-bank lending markets to fund their loan books and the cost of wholesale credit, although moderating somewhat since late 2008, hasn't returned to pre-financial crisis levels.

In the latest rhetoric from an Australian banker foreshadowing a possible re-pricing of their loan book, Westpac Banking Corp. (WBK) Chief Executive Gail Kelly said Monday that Australia's second biggest bank continues to experience materially higher funding costs and that interest rates on its loans to customers will rise "over time".

Australia's major banks are experiencing record profitability but their most recent financial progress updates indicate earnings growth is slowing as still-cautious small businesses continue to hoard cash rather than risk expansion.

The Reserve Bank of Australia made the surprising decision last Tuesday of keeping Australia's official cash rate on hold at 4.50% as it attempts to balance the impacts on inflation from a booming Australian mining sector with continued signs of fragility in the U.S. and Europe.

Any move by the banks to raise rates on their home loans and credit cards independent of the central bank could take pressure off the RBA to raise rates because the banks had already done some of the job.

Kelly said at a business lunch in Sydney that Westpac is still replacing offshore wholesale borrowings it didn't replace before the global financial crisis with more expensive money, and that competition between banks for additional funding is pushing up the cost of retail deposits.

She didn't specify when rates on Westpac's products could rise but said the bank expects its cost of funding to keep rising for another 18 months.

The Sydney-based bank said immediately after last week's RBA decision to keep rates on hold that it was also leaving its rates steady and had "no current plans" to change its standard variable rate on mortgages ahead of the next central bank meeting in early November.

Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. (ANZ) Chief Executive Mike Smith told reporters last week that "something has to give at some stage" on loan pricing and National Australia Bank Ltd. (NAB) said that it hadn't made any changes to its mortgage rate "at this time".

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AU), which is Australia's largest bank, is the only one of Australia's major banks that hasn't yet commented on the RBA's decision. "We don't speculate on possible interest rate movements," a spokesman reiterated Monday.

History has shown that when one Australian bank sticks its neck out and leads with an out-of-step rate rise, copping the related bad media publicity, the other banks usually quietly follow.

Westpac, though, may be more reluctant to lead than in the past after the wave of outrage it generated last December for leading with a 45 basis point hike in its mortgage rate in response to just a 25 basis point rise in the official cash rate.

Lawmakers from both sides of politics have consistently criticized the banks for raising rates independently of official moves in the cash rate, but that didn't stop them from doing so on several occasions in 2008 and 2009.

Southern Cross Equities banking analyst TS Lim said there is "a very strong possibility" that the banks could raise their rates before the next RBA board meeting in November. "There's pressure on margins and every month that they're delaying is going to cause the banks some grief," he said.

Lim, however, added that Commonwealth Bank might be reluctant to anger customers with a rate rise prior to its annual shareholder meeting on Oct. 26 to avoid any ugly public confrontations.

An analyst from a large international investment bank, who wished to remain anonymous, agreed that it's possible the banks could move before the next RBA board meeting, which happens to be on the same day as Australia's biggest horse race, The Melbourne Cup.

But he said it's more likely they will "piggy back" onto another rise in the official cash rate by adding some more on top.

Morgan Stanley said last week that Commonwealth Bank would need to raise its standard variable home loan rates by as much as 50 basis points outside any moves by the RBA to offset higher funding costs enough to maintain its 2011 financial year's margins at the previous year's levels.

"However, we think this will be difficult to achieve and our forecasts assume just 30 basis points of 'out-of-cycle' rate rises," Morgan Stanley said."

Time to 'short' Australia's housing bubble (update 3). Fitch rating agency coming stress tests: AUST HOUSING

• mild stress (2.5% of mortgage defaults with a 20% property price decline)
• medium stress (6% mortgage defaults with a 30% property price decline)
• severe stress (8% mortgage defaults and a 40% property price decline).

Good to watch Aust bond yields as the AUD reaches bubble status.

Time to 'short' Australia's housing bubble (update 2). Australian liquidity crunch?

If Australia's Reserve Bank sends (a bizarrely timed interest rate cycle) the AUD close to parity (against the US) not only will Australia lose it's competitiveness with exports (South America export countries begin a FX devaluation cycle), it may attempt to stave off a liquidity crunch (higher AUD will send hot inflows into the economy). A double edge sword that the RBA is walking on (attempt at building up a liquidity backstop with AUD moneyflows), which will end up sending the overinflated and highly in-debited housing market into a mega bust.

"AUSTRALIAN banks' reliance on overseas funding and the high level of household debt loom as ''significant'' economic risks, Treasury has told the government in a briefing.

The nation's top economic advisers yesterday made public the incoming government brief known as the ''Red Book'' after a flurry of freedom-of-information requests."

Time to 'short' Australia's housing bubble (update 1)

Bloomberg Aug 24th 2010

"The real-estate bubble: Things are so frothy that Morgan Stanley is advising investors to buy put options on real estate and bank shares to profit from a likely housing-market bust.

Bubble Troubles

Homes are about 40 percent overvalued and prices are vulnerable to rising unemployment and tighter bank lending, Gerard Minack, Sydney-based head of Morgan Stanley’s global developed market strategy, wrote in an Aug. 16 report. Home prices rose at an annual rate of 18 percent in the second quarter, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s six interest-rate increases since October haven’t done the trick. Regulatory steps are needed to keep this bubble from destabilizing a nation that has avoided a recession for 19 years, earning it the well-deserved nickname “the miracle economy.”

As of March 31, the nation’s household-debt-to-disposable- income ratio was 158 percent. Sky-high household debt leaves Australia vulnerable to a double-dip global recession."

Time to 'short' Australia's housing bubble

This will be an ongoing blog post with updates, till then these two charts
AUD:



and the mother of all housing bubbles: